2010 College Hoops Previews: The Big East

Here's the final conference installment of the mammoth 2010 College Hoops Previews series. This time I'm joined by JP, ML, and RTC. For more details on what's going on with the ratings, go here and here; the new regression ratings for the Big East are here. All team ratings from kenpom.com, recruiting info was taken from Scout.

1. West Virginia
2009 rating: .951
Returning 80% of minutes, 78% of points
Lost Alex Ruoff (senior), Dee Proby (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Dalton Pepper (6'5, 215; 4*), Dan Jennings (6'9, 240; 4*), Deniz Kilicli (6'9, 245; 3*), Casey Mitchell (6'4, 220; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .955, VW .942, JP .949, RM .935

VW: Losing Ruoff hurts, but they were actually only 227th in the nation in 3P% last year, so they'll be fine if Butler and Bryant improve a little bit in that area. Despite a 48.5% eFG%, which was good for just 193rd in the nation, the offense was 18th in the country thanks to outstanding rebounding and few turnovers. It's sort of strange to project them since I don't think many people ever saw them as the #9 team in the country last season, but there's just not a whole lot pointing toward the Neers getting worse.

RM: This is my pick for the BE title. Huggins is a great regular season coach, and he returns almost everyone. Ebanks has only scratched the surface of his potential and will anchor the defense from the middle with prototypical Huggins guards like Truck Bryant and Joe Mazzulla hawking the perimeter.

Final rating: .951

2. Villanova
2009 rating: .946
Returning 63% of minutes, 62% of points
Lost Dwayne Anderson, Shane Clark (seniors), Dante Cunningham (draft)
Incoming freshmen: Dominic Cheek (6'5, 175; 5*), Mouphtauo Yarou (6'9, 235; 5*), Isaiah Armwood (6'7, 185; 4*), Maalik Wayns (6'1, 175; 4*)
Initial ratings: ML .950, VW .948, JP .938, RM .920

RM: It feels like people are slightly overrating Villanova based on their F4 run and the incoming class (which, granted, is nasty). The returning guard play is excellent with Reynolds, Fisher and Stokes, but the loss of Dante Cunningham inside shouldn't be overlooked. He did everything for Nova inside, and to expect a talented freshman like Yarou to walk in and fill his shoes immediately may be too much to ask.

VW: The Cats may be historically tough in the coming season. Their RetMin% isn't all that impressive, but if they replace Cunningham, Anderson and Clark with 18 stars of recruits I can't see it being a huge drop off.

Final rating: .948

3. Connecticut
2009 rating: .975
Returning 39% of minutes, 37% of points
Lost Jeff Adrien & Craig Austrie (seniors), Hasheem Thabeet & A.J. Price (draft)
Incoming freshmen: Alex Oriakhi (6'9, 225; 5*), Jamal Coombs-McDaniel (6'7, 185; 4*), Darius Smith (6'2, 180; 4*)
Initial ratings: ML .910, VW .915, JP .905, RM .885

VW: They lost a ton obviously, but UConn should still be pretty strong. Robinson's rebounding numbers aren't as good as I would've guessed, but that's probably inevitable when you're playing alongside Adrien and Thabeet. Walker famously came on strong at the end of last year, and Dyson is a serviceable two guard, although his 3P shooting has been pretty weak throughout his tenure in Storrs. If the freshman class lives up to the hype they might have something here.

Final rating: .912

4. Georgetown
2009 rating: .908
Returning 69% of minutes, 68% of points
Lost Jessie Sapp (senior), DaJuan Summers (draft), Omar Wattad (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Hollis Thompson (6'6, 180; 4*), Vee Sanford (6'3, 175; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .920, VW .905, JP .908, RM .895

VW: A lot of their struggles offensively last year could be attributed to terrible 3P shooting: 33.2%, just 206th in the country. If Wright and Freeman get their acts together in that department -- and the latter did shoot 40% two years ago -- then the offense will be excellent, with those two on the perimeter and Monroe inside. They'll miss Summers, but the defense was 22nd in the nation last year, led by Monroe's impressive numbers across the board. I think it's reasonable to stray from the projection here as I can't see how they regress from last season's disappointing showing.

Final rating: .911

5. Louisville
2009 rating: .968
Returning 55% of minutes, 55% of points
Lost Andre McGee (senior), Terrence Williams & Earl Clark (draft)
Incoming freshmen: Peyton Silva (5'11, 160; 4*), Rakeem Buckles (6'8, 200; 4*), Stephan Van Treese (6'9, 220; 3*), Mike Marra (6'4, 190; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .915, VW .900, JP .921, RM .870

VW: I don't doubt their defense -- the rebounding is somewhat worrisome, with Clark and Williams gone, but they have enough size that they should be alright. How are they going to score though? They weren't great in that department last year (31st in the nation), and things revolved around T-Will a good deal. They're going to be dependent on Samuels inside and the excellent shooting of Knowles and Smith again, which doesn't seem like the greatest of plans.

Final rating: .910

6. Cincinnati

2009 rating: .748
Returning 78% of minutes, 78% of points
Lost Mike Williams (senior), Alvin Mitchell (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Lance Stephenson (6'5, 202; 5*), Sean Kilpatrick (6'3, 185; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .860, VW .830, JP .855, RM .860

RM: The Bearcats should be the upwardly mobile BE team of 2009-10. They return the core of a team that surprised in the league last year, plus they add five star recruit Lance Stephenson, and Cashmere Wright returns from an injury. If Stephenson can stay away from 17-year old girls and doesn't piss off the rest of his team with the Born Ready stuff, the Bearcats should be NCAA-bound.

VW: I'm fully prepared for five months of being a Lance Stephenson fanboy, and I'm actually a fan of their core on offense if Vaughn goes back to nailing 40% of his threes and Gates progresses in his sophomore season. Unfortunately, I'm not sure where the D, which was 104th in the country last year, is going to come from.

Final rating: .855

7. Pittsburgh
2009 rating: .963
Returning 34% of minutes, 27% of points
Lost Levance Fields & Tyrell Biggs (seniors), Sam Young & DeJuan Blair (draft)
Incoming freshmen: Dante Taylor (6'8, 215; 5*), Talib Zanna (6'8, 215; 4*), Lamar Patterson (6'5, 220; 3*), J.J. Richardson (6'7, 230; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .840, VW .870, JP .840, RM .870

RM: Wow, talk about personnel losses. Not only the four listed above, but also Dixon starting the season injured. There's some solid young talent here in Chase Adams (Centenary transfer eligible immediately), Ashton Gibbs and Gilbert Brown, along with some interesting recruits, and if anyone believes that a Jamie Dixon team will collapse, they're crazy - he's only had one sub-25 win season in six years of coaching.

VW: They bring back a bunch of solid ORtgs -- their offense was ridiculously efficient last year -- but how much of that will carry over with so much talent gone? Maybe this Taylor guy ends up being pretty good, it definitely looks to be a down year for Pitt though.

Final rating: .854

8. Marquette
2009 rating: .929
Returning 40% of minutes, 34% of points
Lost Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Dominic James, Dwight Burke (seniors), Pat Hazel (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Junior Cadougan (6'1, 190; 4*), Erik Williams (6'7, 190; 4*), Jeronne Maymon (6'7, 185; 4*), Youssoupha Mbao (7'2, 215; 3*), Darius Johnson-Odom (3*), Dwight Buycks (6'1, 165; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .835, VW .850, JP .827, RM .825

RM: Jimmy Butler is interesting given how he came on at the end of last season (four double-figure scoring and two double-figure rebounding games in his last eight). The recruiting class is solid, but Marquette will have to figure out where points are coming from after losing so much offensive firepower.

VW: Who knows, with the trio of guards finally having graduated. Hayward had a great year all around last season, and Butler was outrageously efficient in limited time, but their success will probably come down to how effective the enormous freshman class is.

Final rating: .841

9. Seton Hall
2009 rating: .796
Returning 76% of minutes, 85% of points
Lost Paul Gause (senior), Mike Davis & Brandon Walters (transfers)
Incoming freshmen: Ferrakohn Hall (6'7, 200; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .835, VW .825, JP .850, RM .845

RM: If Cincy isn't the surprise team this year, Seton Hall will be. The additions of Keon Lawrence and Herb Pope as transfers makes this a very interesting squad when added to gunner Jeremy Hazell and several other returning contributors. The additional athleticism alone should help the defense improve from third-to-last in the BE last year.

VW: The Pirates return almost everybody after a respectable year in a tough conference. They have really struggled from beyond the arc and on the defensive glass each of the last two years; if they could just manage to be average in one of those areas for a couple months an above .500 finish in the BE isn't out of the question.

Final rating: .840

10. Notre Dame
2009 rating: .877
Returning 47% of minutes, 53% of points
Lost Kyle McAlarney, Luke Zeller, Ryan Ayers, Zach Hillesland (seniors)
Incoming freshmen: Tom Knight (6'9, 245; 3*), Mike Broghammer (6'9, 220; 3*), Jack Cooley (6'8, 210; 3*), Joey Brooks (6'5, 200; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .815, VW .835, JP .810, RM .850

VW: Transfer Scott Martin tearing his ACL hurts; he would've been a nice complement to Harangody inside. They do bring in The Other Hansbrough, but appear to have very little depth beyond him, Jackson, and the big guy down low. Not exactly promising for a team that has developed a reputation for not being able to stop anyone.

Final rating: .822

11. Syracuse
2009 rating: .945
Returning 45% of minutes, 41% of points
Lost Kristof Ongenaet (senior), Johnny Flynn (draft), Sean Williams (transfer), Eric Devendorf & Paul Harris (tried to get drafted)
Incoming freshmen: DaShonte Riley (6'11, 220: 4*), Brandon Triche (6'3, 195; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .815, VW .830, JP .820, RM .840

RM: Major losses for the Orange, who will clearly struggle to find cohesion while implementing transfer Wes Johnson as the new best player in their lineup. Arinze Onuaku appears underutilized - even though he shot a ridiculous 67% from inside last year, he only received 18% of the shots available while on the floor. The expectation is that will go up significantly this year.

VW: They would've been excellent if Devendorf and Harris had decided to return rather than go undrafted, but that didn't happen. The Cuse could be tough down low with Onuaku and the 6'11" freshman Riley, but I'm not sure what the plan is in the backcourt.

Final rating: .820

12. St. John's
2009 rating: .626
Returning 94% of minutes, 97% of points
Lost Phil Wait & TyShawn Edmondson (transfers), Tomas Jasiulionis (overseas)
Incoming freshmen: Omari Lawrence (6'4, 170; 3*), Dwight Hardy (6'2, 175; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .780, VW .735, JP .795, RM .750

VW: The regression projection (.827) is absurd -- that'd put them 59th in the country, and they haven't even been in the top 100 since '05 -- but the Red Storm were dominated by sophomores last season, so they should be markedly better. They also theoretically return Anthony Mason Jr., who missed all but three games last season, but he's out for at least a few more weeks with an aggravated hamstring.

Final rating: .760

13. Providence
2009 rating: .773
Returning 36% of minutes, 34% of points
Lost Weyinmi Efejuku, Geoff McDermott, Jeff Xavier, Jonathan Kale, Randall Hanke (seniors), Alex Kellogg (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Johnnie Lacy (5'10, 160; 3*), James Still (6'9, 210; 3*), Kadeem Batts (6'7, 215; 3*), Vincent Council (6'1, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .735, VW .705, JP .725, RM .725

RM: The Friars need to improve defensively, which will be very tough to do after losing five seniors from an NIT team. It's Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks' team now, but neither player gets me very excited about this team.

VW: Curry, Brooks, and Hanke form a decent enough top three, but it seems like they're going to be giving way too many minutes to 3* recruits to be particularly competitive.

Final rating: .720

14. South Florida
2009 rating: .572
Returning 65% of minutes, 70% of points
Lost Jesus Verdejo, Mobolaji Ajayi, Aris Williams (seniors), Gaby Belardo & Eladio Espinosa (transfers)
Incoming freshmen: Jarrid Famous (6'11, 235; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .680, VW .700, JP .685, RM .700

ML: Dominique Jones is good. His 2009 rate stats aren't that impressive until you account for the fact that he accomplished them with no supporting cast while playing 93.3% of the minutes. USF basketball tends to become pretty popular in Contrarianville from January to March, but if something were to happen to Jones, I'm not sure I could support them in the way that I have in the past.

Final rating: .692

15. DePaul
2009 rating: .406
Returning 68% of minutes, 61% of points
Lost Jabari Currie & Matija Poscic (seniors), Dar Tucker (tried to get drafted)
Incoming freshmen: Tony Freeland (6'7, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .610, VW .702, JP .605, RM .600

VW: Tucker was ridiculously high usage, but also horribly inefficient, with a 45% eFG%. Walker and Koshwal were better, and will be the focus of the offense this season. The defense will probably continue to be awful, as they were bad last season in just about every category except preventing their opponents from getting to the line. Last year was really a huge outlier for them overall though, so I'm projecting a return to respectability.

Final rating: .658

16. Rutgers
2009 rating: .558
Returning 53% of minutes, 55% of points
Lost Anthony Farmer, J.R. Inman, Jaron Griffin (seniors), Earl Pettis (transfer), Corey Chandler (dismissed)
Incoming freshmen: Dane Miller (6'6, 200; 3*), Austin Johnson (6'7, 200; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .640, VW .590, JP .660, RM .675

VW: I know we're constantly saying that 3P shooting will regress to the mean, but when you're under 32% as a team for three consecutive years, I'm pretty sure it's not just bad luck.

RM: Mike Rosario shoots poorly because he takes way too many threes (252 attempts, converting 30%), but he'll get the shots, and along with Greg Echinique inside, the horrific offense should improve. It won't be enough to move into the top half of the league, and their relative position in the standings might not change, but they should be marginally better.

Final rating: .620

Final Big East ratings:

Pretty weird hierarchy, with a clear top two and then three more teams before another big gap. In the next couple days I'll be looking at how the 85 teams we rated stack up against each other, how that order compares to the polls, where I disagree with the conference odds, and who knows what else.

2010 College Hoops Previews: The Other Guys

Below is our attempt to catch the non-power conference teams that appear headed toward relevance in March. The standard numbers we look at can be found here; I only got RM on board for this one, so all the discussion and ratings are from the two of us. Also note that the order below is completely meaningless. The Big East preview will be posted Monday morning, and look for various other preview content later in the week.

Memphis

RM: The addition of Elliot Williams from Duke may have saved this team from a complete meltdown. He only averaged four points in 16 minutes for the Devils, but his late addition to the starting lineup last year made Duke much more athletic and effective defensively. If he can handle that role for Memphis, and I think he can, we'll get to see just how deep John Calipari's last couple of teams actually were (Witherspoon, Mack, Sallie, Kemp).

VW: I think the Tigers may have a down year at some point because of Calipari's departure, but I'd guess that will be next year, when Mack, Kemp, and Henderson-Niles graduate. For now they still have all the talent he brought in, so they should be okay, although it'll obviously be quite a drop from the last two years.

Final rating: .855

Gonzaga

RM: Can you believe that last year's Zags were the nation's #1 defensive team against twos? Seems impossible. Though not as hyped as some of his teammates, Bouldin was actually the second most efficient player they had last year, with a 54%/42% split from 2/3. There will have to be a dropoff at a national level, but they'll still probably win the WCC.

VW: It's kind of surprising that they don't have a stronger recruiting class to balance out the graduations of Pargo, Heytvelt, and Downs, but both Bouldin and Gray (58% from two) were extremely efficient last year, so they should be able to pick up some of the slack of last year's seniors and Mr. Tough.

Final rating: .855

Xavier

RM: Another team with some big losses, including head coach Sean Miller. Lebron-dunker Jordan Crawford will help things, but the sophomore class of Terrell Holloway, Kenny Frease and Brad Redford will have to seriously step up if XU expects to win 25+ games and the A-10 again.

VW: Jason Love and Frease could be an excellent combo on the boards in increased minutes for both of them. Redford shot 47% from three last year; his outside shooting could be huge in replacing the offensive production of Raymond and Brown.

Final rating: .865

BYU

RM: Despite the loss of Lee Cummard this should be a really good team, with Jonathan Tavernari and Jimmer Fredette returning. If the Cougars can get improved boardwork from Chris Miles (6'11) and James Anderson (6'10), this team could finally win a first round NCAA game (last time: 1993).

VW: I'm not quite as high on these guys as RM; I don't think they were as good as their final KenPom rating last year (.919), and replacing Cummard's production (122.3 ORtg) will be tough. Fredette and Emery were both very good as sophomores last year though, so they're probably the MWC favorites.

Final rating: .880

Butler

RM: The Bulldogs are media darlings this year, but deservedly so. The multi-dimensional Gordon Hayward would star for anyone in the country, and Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack are no joke either. Everyone else returns, as this was basically a team of freshmen/sophomores last year. Butler is a Sweet 16 team without question based on their talent level.

VW: This is the best team outside the big six conferences, and it doesn't appear to be particularly close. It's hard to project them both because they literally return everybody, and they were surprisingly good last year despite losing a ton from their strong '08 team. Hayward was ridiculously good as a freshman (52% from two, 45% from three), and should be an even bigger part of the offense this season.

Final rating: .922

Dayton

RM: I'm not sold on media selection of UD as the best team in the A10, even though they return nearly everyone including super-dunker Chris Wright. The Flyers really need to really improve their offensive execution (#250 from two; #231 from three) to realize their talent level, and 65% from the line (#298) won't help much either. Their defense saves them most of the time, but that offense must improve.

VW: I'm not huge on the Flyers myself; they were fifth in the country in "Luck" last year, and thus pretty overrated. They only lost Little and Thomas though, who weren't particularly good; they should improve, especially if Wright can return his ORtg to his '08 level (110).

Final rating: .840

Siena

RM: Hasbrouck is a key loss, but he didn't shoot it as well as Ubiles, Rossiter and Franklin, who all return. They're undersized as a group, but make up for it on defense by forcing turnovers (#48 in the nation last season) and not fouling much (#5).

VW: Even moreso than Hasbrouck, Rossiter was the key last year, shooting 63% from the field. It actually looks like Hasbrouck, their biggest name and (not coincidentally) highest usage guy, was quite overrated, with an ORtg of just 97.8. They could be pretty good on offense if Rossiter starts getting more touches.

Final rating: .835

Tulsa

RM: Jerome Jordan will be an NBA center, and Ben Uzoh is a good enough to set up the offense and keep defenses honest. If Memphis falters like many expect in CUSA, Tulsa will be there to pick up the crown.

VW: Jordan is really, really good, which makes it funny that the strength of their defense last year was actually guarding the three (27.8% 3P% against, lowest in the nation). That will inevitably regress, but the offense should be better with Jordan and Ben Uzoh back for their senior years. We actually have them tied with mighty Memphis, so that should be an interesting race in C-USA.

Final rating: .855

Northern Iowa

RM: UNI returns all five starters from a balanced team. 7'1 Jordan Eglseder only played 19 minutes/game last year and still put up 10/6; if he can stay on the floor another 5-10 mpg, he could average a double-double. Nobody else in the Valley has anyone quite like that.

VW: Both Eglseder and Lucas O'Rear (65% from two) were excellent inside last year; both also played less than half the time, so there is some room for improvement there if those two can stay on the court. If sophomore Johnny Moran can improve on last year's 33% from three, they could have quite an offense.

Final rating: .825

Creighton

RM: There's a lot returning here even though star Booker Woodfox is gone. Stat of the year: Kaleb Korver shot NINE times as many threes than twos last season (87 vs. 9). How do you only shoot nine twos in over 500 minutes of court time?

VW: Woodfox was really good (123.4 ORtg), and also high usage, so that production will be extremely difficult to replace. They are going to need Korver to keep up his efficient shooting (45% from three) though, as treys from him and Woodfox were the strength of their offense last year.

Final rating: .805

Utah St.

RM: Gary Wilkinson was really good, but he wasn't the whole team here. Tai Wesley and Jared Quayle are also very efficient players, and if this team could just get its defense marginally better, then they would be the prohibitive favorite (as it stands, they barely edged out Nevada in both the coaches and media polls).

VW: I'm not too worried about them being better than Nevada, since the Pack finished last year with a KenPom rating of just .685 and are only returning 67% of last season's minutes. As RM mentioned, they should be able to survive the loss of Wilkinson, since they have a variety of weapons on offense. Wilkinson also doesn't appear to have been a big factor on D (beyond rebounding), which is the area that they really need to improve.

Final rating: .830

VCU

RM: Eric Maynor is gone, but the rebounding/shot-blocking machine known as Larry Sanders returns to become the focal point for new coach Shaka Smart. Wake Forest transfer Jamie Skeen could also add athletic depth not typically seen at the CAA level in the frontcourt, but I'm worried about their backcourt with Maynor leaving.

VW: Finally, we arrive at my hometown team (tickets to the 11/21 game vs. OU still available!). Losing Maynor obviously hurts, but they do return every other significant contributor from a team that almost took down UCLA in the first round last year. This is the year that Sanders needs to show some polish on the offensive end; he should really be able to hit more than 51% of his twos. Bradford Burgess had an impressive 58% eFG% as a freshman, so he should be able to fill some of the scoring void left by Maynor, but I can't see anyone duplicating the departed guard's ridiculous Assist Rate of 41%.

Final rating: .835

2009 NFL Survivor: Week 9

Last week:
SD: W, 24-16
CHI: W, 30-6
ARI: L, 34-21
DAL: W, 38-17
IND: W, 18-14
DET: L, 17-10
NO: W, 35-27

OFP had 10.4% of entries knocked out last week; the Yahoo! entrants were a bit more bullish on Arizona, which caused 13.9% of them to go down. There are 60,648 entries left in the Yahoo! pool.

Teams used (DAVE rank): New England (1st), Philadelphia (2nd), New Orleans (3rd), Green Bay (6th), Dallas (9th), Houston (17th), San Diego (19th), Washington (21st).

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Atlanta (vs. Washington)

For most of this season, there's been a choice: either take the most popular team, or sacrifice some win probability. Not this week though, as there are three other teams favored at least as much as the Falcons (-10, 81.3%). Throw in the fact that they still face the Bucs twice, and there's really no reason to waste Atlanta this week.

Seattle (vs. Detroit)

The Seahawks are favored by the exact same amount as the Falcons, but are dramatically less popular; this probably has something to do with Seattle only having won one more game this season than Detroit. They do travel to St. Louis and host Tampa Bay later in the season, but it doesn't get any better than the Lions -- who have been noticeably worse than those other two teams -- at home. Those lines will probably be in single digits, and I don't think there are going to be many weeks the rest of the year where taking a team favored by less than 10 points is necessary.

Green Bay (at Tampa Bay)

I have already used the Packers, but I don't think I'd take them over Seattle even if I hadn't, since they're extremely public at -9.5 (79.6%) on the road, and still face the 49ers, Lions, and, well, Seahawks down the stretch.

New Orleans (vs. Carolina)

You know, when I took the Saints in Week 1 against the Lions, I really had no idea I'd be using the third best team in the league right off the bat. That's how it worked out though, so I obviously can't take New Orleans this week.

If you do still have the Saints available, it's an interesting debate between them and the Seahawks:

Win probability: NO 85.4%, SEA 81.3%
Popularity: SEA 18.1%, NO 11.7%
Future value: The Saints will be large road favorites against the Rams (-14.5 at SBET), Bucs (-17.5), and Redskins (-14), and will be laying a huge number against the Bucs in Week 16 at home (-17.5 right now; I realize this makes no sense). The Seahawks are favored by nine against TB in Week 15, but there are plenty of options that week; Seattle has essentially zero future value.
Future popularity: If they win, the Saints will have been used by 53% of OFP survivors after this week; the Seahawks will be at 30%.

New Orleans comes out on top in three of the four categories, but they have such a ridiculous amount of future value that I think I'd probably still go with Seattle.

New England (vs. Miami)

The Pats are actually the second biggest favorite of the week at -10.5 (82.8%). They have more value going forward (-10.5 vs NYJ, -13 vs CAR, -16 vs JAX) than the Seahawks, but are less popular this week; I'd probably stick with Seattle and save New England for later if I hadn't used either team.

The lack of available options made my choice unusually simple this week: the Seahawks are the pick.

Evaluating April MLB Predictions (2005-2009)

First off, here are the final 2009 standings:

Not much has changed since we last checked in. Most of these got a bit lower, as you'd expect with the slightly larger sample size; CAIRO ended up gaining a decent amount of separation from the pack.

Of course, there's all sorts of noise when we're just looking at one season of projections. Below are the systems I have win totals from for each year since 2005, plus CHONE, which I have for '06-'09:

It's essentially a dead heat between CHONE and MGL over the last four years, with MGL holding the five-year crown on the strength of his '05 performance. PECOTA was the clear leader before 2009, but because of both its terrible showing this season and questions about the system's current methodology, I'd have a hard time relying on its 2010 projections too heavily. Considering that MGL doesn't make his win projections public prior to the season, that means we should probably be focusing on CHONE when analyzing the preseason divisional odds next March.

2010 College Hoops Previews: The Pac-10

Here's the fifth installment of the mammoth 2010 College Hoops Previews series. This time I'm joined by JP, ML, and RTC. For more details on what's going on with the ratings, go here and here; the new regression ratings for the Pac-10 are here. All team ratings from kenpom.com, recruiting info was taken from Scout.

1. California
2009 rating: .886
Returning 91% of minutes, 93% of points
Lost Jordan Wilkes ("pursuing academic opportunities")
Incoming freshmen: Brandon Smith (5'11, 170; 3*), Markuri Sanders-Frison (6'8, 265; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .945, VW .930, JP .935, RM .935

VW: Pretty incredible that the Bears are the favorite in this conference, but they're legitimately good in a down year out west. My main concern is that, while you'd expect a team with all five starts coming back to progress, it'd tough to improve on 42.7% from three (first in the nation). That's bound to go down; Randle and Robertson shot 46% and 49% last year after hitting at 40% and 37% clips in their prior years, respectively.

Their hope for improvement is on the defensive end, where they were ranked just 101st a year ago. Cal had particular issues forcing turnovers; maybe they'll be more adept in that department this season with Seeley and Gutierrez getting a bit more time as sophomores.

ML: I went a bit overboard here. My rating suggests that I think they are only a smidgen worse than Purdue/UK, and I highly doubt that is the case. Cal's struggles forcing turnovers are not exactly a new development either. They were bad in this department long before Mike Montgomery arrived on campus. I do agree that they should be considered favorites to win the league, but that says more about the Pac 10 then it does about them.

Final rating: .928

2. Washington
2009 rating: .940
Returning 69% of minutes, 61% of points
Lost Justin Dentmon (senior), Jon Brockman (draft), Joe Wolfinger (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Abdul Gaddy (6'3, 170; 5*), Clarence Trent (6'7, 230; 3*), Charles Garcia (6'10, 220; 3*), C.J. Wilcox (6'5, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .900, VW .915, JP .910, RM .920

RM: The quartet of Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy, Quincy Pondexter and Venoy Overton could be the best backcourt in America. Unfortunately, the frontcourt could be the worst (ok, not really). But it's pretty bad. The loss of Jon Brockman will be felt if UW gets into games where they're walking the ball upcourt. The good news is that there's very little skilled size in the Pac-10 this year, so that weakness may not be exploited too frequently.

ML: The one area where they won't miss Jon Brockman is shot blocking. He was about as deficient as the 5 foot 8 Thomas in this regard last year, which is pretty amazing.

VW: They were third in the nation in OR% last year, and a lot of that was attributed to Brockman. They were only 84th on the defensive glass, and if you take the 6'11 senior out of the equation they really weren't very impressive at all. It's going to be key for Pondexter, Bryan-Amaning, and one or two of the freshman to fill that void; they'll still fall off in those two categories, but progression in other areas (particularly from Thomas in his sophomore season) will minimize the damage.

Final rating: .908

3. UCLA
2009 rating: .949
Returning 38% of minutes, 43% of points
Lost Josh Shipp, Alfred Aboya (seniors), Jrue Holliday, Darren Collison (draft)
Incoming freshmen: Tyler Honeycutt (6'8, 190; 5*), Mike Moser (6'7, 185; 4*), Anthony Stover (6'10, 207; 4*), Brendan Lane (6'9, 200; 4*), Reeves Nelson (6'7, 215; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .905, VW .910, JP .905, RM .875

RM: It's really hard to project this UCLA team because the majority of its players haven't seen much action, yet we know from their recruiting rankings that they're all blue chippers. How will Jerime Anderson, Malcolm Lee, Drew Gordon and J'Mison Morgan adjust to playing heavy minutes in their sophomore seasons? Howland won't let this team fall too far, but they're going to take some licks this year.

VW: Yeah, this is a situation where last year's rating is nearly irrelevant. The defense will likely be alright, since they have plenty of athletes and their coach didn't change, but the thing about UCLA last year was that it wasn't the defense that carried them, it was their offense, which was the third most efficient unit in the nation. Dragovic is back, and he was quite good on offense last year, but who knows how much of that was because of all the talent around him. With all the sophomores and freshmen, UCLA has the chance to be pretty strong, especially once conference season rolls around, but there's really no way of knowing at this point.

Final rating: .907

4. Arizona St.
2009 rating: .941
Returning 66% of minutes, 50% of points
Lost James Harden, Jeff Pendergraph (draft), Kraidon Woods (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Trent Lockett (6'5, 185; 4*), Demetrius Walker (6'4, 185; 3*), Victor Rudd (6'8, 200; 3*), Ruslan Pateev (6'11, 235; 3*), Brandon Thompson (6'2, 185; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .850, VW .872, JP .886, RM .840

JP: They were 2nd in the country last year in eFG% (56.4), but losing Pendergraph's 66% is going to bring that back down to earth a little bit, and I heard that Harden guy could score occasionally as well. I also don't see a single player on this team getting a rebound next year beyond Boateng, which could be an issue.

VW: They shot a ton of threes last year, and without Pendergraph that tendency may become even more dramatic. That's fine if you're hitting them, but Glasser and Kuksiks both saw huge rises in their 3P% last year, so some regression there is almost inevitable. Fortunately Abbott's 29% from deep has nowhere to go but up. I'm guessing they'll score enough, but the defense and rebounding could get ugly.

ML: Without Harden the quality of those 3PAs figures to go down as well. He created a lot of open looks for the likes of Glasser and Kuksiks with his ability to get into the lane. They won't be as bad on the whole, but I won't be shocked if the Sun Devils resemble their borderline unwatchable 2007 outfit at times offensively.

Final rating: .868

5. Arizona
2009 rating: .871
Returning 52% of minutes, 43% of points
Lost Fendi Onobun (senior), Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger (draft), Zane Johnson (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Kyryl Natyazhko (6'10, 240; 4*), Solomon Hill (6'6, 215; 4*), Kevin Parrom (6'5, 185; 4*), Derrick Williams (6'7, 195; 4*), Lamont Jones (6'0, 175; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .855, VW .850, JP .865, RM .860

RM: Arizona's defense was appallingly bad for a team in the NCAA Tourney last year, but Sean Miller won't stand for that level of effort on his team -- his last two Xavier squads were top 35 defensive teams. On the other hand, who other than Nic Wise will score? When he's not handing games away, Jamelle Horne shows promise -- as does Kyle Fogg - but Miller is going to have to lean heavily on his recruits, most notably Solomon Hill, for production. The NCAA streak stands at 25, but an awful lot of things need to go well to get to 26.

VW: The defense should actually get better, with the loss of Budinger, the new coach, the recruits, and some regression balancing out Hill's departure. The offense will take a big step back from #7 in the country though, since Budinger was actually effective at that end of the floor. Overall, a small step back seems about right; I bet they still stumble into the tournament, deservedly or not.

Final rating: .858

6. Oregon St.
2009 rating: .677
Returning 83% of minutes, 88% of points
Lost Rickey Claitt (senior)
Incoming freshmen: Angus Brandt (6'9, 220; 4*), Roberto Nelson (6'3, 180; 4*), Joe Burton (6'7, 270; 3*), Jared Cunningham (6'3, 165; 3*), Rhys Murphy (6'7, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .820, VW .805, JP .812, RM .830

RM: Craig Robinson has done a nice job here, taking one of the worst teams I've ever seen two years ago and turning it into a competitive program overnight using his methodical (read: slow) style of play. Most everyone returns and they add a good recruiting class; I think they actually have a shot at the tournament this year.

VW: They should improve once again, but I'm not completely sold -- while they have a lot of volume coming back, it's not like we're they're returning a bunch of four- and five-star recruits. Claitt was also their most efficient player on offense, although he was very low-usage. Brandt and Burton are going to have to improve the interior defense, which was horrible last year.

Final rating: .802

7. Stanford
2009 rating: .860
Returning 45% of minutes, 41% of points
Lost Anthony Goods, Lawrence Hill, Kenny Brown, Mitch Johnson (seniors), Will Paul (suspended)
Incoming freshmen: Andy Brown (6'8, 200; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .800, VW .785, JP .782, RM .770

JP: Owens and Fields, already very efficient offensive players, are going to need someone else to step up. Hopefully Jeremy Green, who shot 46% from three last year, can take this role and fill the shoes of Goods and Johnson, or else this team may be in trouble.

VW: What is going on with the recruiting in Palo Alto? They've lost a ton of talent (and Mitch Johnson) over the last couple years, and have replaced it with neither quantity nor quality. Aside from the Lopez brothers, there hasn't been much of interest in this program in the last five years, and it looks like that's going to continue for at least the near future.

Final rating: .786

8. Southern Cal
2009 rating: .908
Returning 40% of minutes, 37% of points
Lost Keith Wilkinson (senior), DeMar DeRozan, Taj Gibson (draft), Donte Smith (transfer), Daniel Hackett (Italy)
Incoming freshmen: None of note.
Initial ratings: ML .800, VW .775, JP .765, RM .800

JP: This team loses A LOT, including three of their top four scorers from last year. Lewis is going to have to be more efficient offensively in order for them to compete. They also lose their beast in the middle, Taj Gibson, so I expect their defense to suffer. One of the reasons they were so efficient defensively was their ability to block shots on the interior and contest shots, but that could be a problem this year as their only players above 6'7 are transfer Alex Stephenson, a rarely used forward (Vucecic) and a 215-pound seven footer from Europe who wasn't even rated by Scout (Davis Rozitis).

Final rating: .780

9. Washington St.
2009 rating: .882
Returning 46% of minutes, 39% of points
Lost Taylor Rochestie, Aron Baynes, Caleb Forrest, Daven Harmeling (seniors)
Incoming freshmen: Xavier Thames (6'3, 177; 3*), Steven Bjornstad (6'10, 215; 3*), Brock Motum (6'9, 215; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .760, VW .750, JP .762, RM .765

RM: Ken Bone takes over at Wazzu. His Portland St. teams were more offensive-minded and uptempo than Tony Bennett's were, so it'll take some adjustment before the players get used to it. Klay Thompson is really the only significant piece remaining, so this looks to be a transition year in Pullman.

Final rating: .757

10. Oregon
2009 rating: .522
Returning 85% of minutes, 89% of points
Lost Churchill Odia (senior), Kamyron Brown (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Jamil Wilson (6'6, 200; 4*), E.J. Singler (6'6, 200; 3*), Jeremy Jacob (6'7, 210; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .770, VW .695, JP .682, RM .625

RM: Someone remind me how Ernie Kent still has a job? UO gave up buckets to anybody who wanted one last year, ranking in the bottom 15 in both 2-pt and 3-pt defense (Brown and Longwood should be proud). I think the four of us could team up with a blind cripple and still get 2 against this team. Bad coaching is still bad coaching and I don't expect much improvement in Eugene.

ML: This is a situation where I went WAY too far with my whole "unlucky on defense" theory . As pointed out above, the Ducks were beyond bad defensively last season, and if their history under Kent is any indication, they probably won't improve all that much even with some regression in their defensive 3P% and FT%.

Final rating: .690

I'll have a full recap next Monday when we're done with the Big East and our list of assorted teams*, but if it seems like the Pac-10 lost a ton of talent:

It's because they did. It's particularly ugly when you look at points, with the conference returning just seven of its top 20 scorers.

*- We have Memphis, Gonzaga, Xavier, BYU, Utah, Butler, Dayton, Siena, and Tulsa thus far, and are taking suggestions on other deserving programs.

This Week's Links (10/26-10/30)

I don't want to look at them before we finish our previews, but the preseason college hoops rankings were released.

Heck, I'm nervous writing this links post.

Basketball Prospectus projects the 2009-10 NBA season.

"Is Ryan Howard really that bad versus LHP?"

2009 NFL Survivor: Week 8

Apologies for the delay, (hopefully) won't happen again.

Last week:
IND: W, 42-6
NE: 35-7

OFP had 5.8% of entries knocked out last week, while that figure was slightly lower in the Yahoo! pool, at 3.9%. There are 71,270 entries left in the Yahoo! pool.

Teams used (DAVE rank): New England (2nd), New Orleans (3rd), Green Bay (4th), Philadelphia (5th), Dallas (10th), Houston (20th), Washington (22nd)

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

San Diego (vs. Oakland)

Yet another big favorite (-16.5, 91.4% to win) that is ridiculously popular in both pools. Even with the huge consensus figures, after considering those two factors I have the Chargers as the most attractive option when considering value this week alone.

Looking ahead to their upcoming schedule, San Diego plays the Chiefs and Redskins at home and travels to Cleveland; all three of those games have prospective lines at SportsBetting between 10 and 14, so it'd be nice to keep them around, particularly since I'm running pretty low on elite teams. However, there are multiple better options available to me in each of those weeks, so future value shouldn't be a huge deterrent here.

Chicago (vs. Cleveland)

The second biggest spread of the week is also the second most popular pick, quite a coincidence there. The problem in comparison to SD is that you're given up a ton of value by dropping down to -13.5 (84.9%), and not gaining a whole lot by getting the consensus down 17% (obviously gaining one percent of win probability is worth more than losing one percent of consensus).

The Bears will be huge favorites in Week 13 when they host the Rams, and SBET has them at -10 in their W17 matchup at Detroit, so while they don't have as much future value as the Chargers I'm not anxious to get rid of them either.

Arizona (vs. Carolina)

The Cardinals are -10 (81.3%) this week, and are comparable to the Bears in the main two criteria, giving up some win probability but trading a good amount of consensus. They have a pretty ridiculous second half schedule, with games in various locations against the Seahawks, Rams (twice), Titans, and Lions, so I think I'd rather save Arizona than Chicago.

Dallas (vs. Seattle)

I've already used the Cowboys; if you have not we can discuss that in the comments.

Indianapolis (vs. San Francisco)

At under 6% in Yahoo! and OFP, the Colts (-11.5, 83.0%) are trumped only by San Diego in attractiveness for this week alone against the mighty 49ers. Since they are #1 in DAVE though, and are favored by at least 8.5 at SBET in six of their final nine games, Indy would definitely be missed in the future if I used them this week.

One other thing that is worth thinking about is that coming into this week, 58.6% of OFP survivors had used the Colts. After this SF game they will be around 64%. That means even if every single person that still has them available takes Indianapolis next week, they still won't be as popular as the Chargers are right now. This has to be considered a positive attribute, since it means even in games where they are favored by a ton of points (W13 vs. TEN is at -17 at SBET right now), their consensus numbers won't be that much of a drawback.

The list of how many users have used each team in OFP through the first seven weeks of the season can be found here; I excluded the percentages for weeks teams lost, since we don't care which teams those eliminated users still have available. So a team being really popular one week makes them both less attractive in that week and more useful in the future.

Detroit (vs. St. Louis)

This line has (finally) been released at DET -4.5. The Lions are 32nd in DAVE. Out of 32. Go Rams.

New Orleans (vs. Atlanta)

See: Dallas.

Always good to throw an additional variable in the mix mid-post to complicate things as much as possible. To recap:

SD: Extremely popular this week. Similarly likely to win. Favored by 10-14 in three future games, but never even the second best available option according to SBET. Will have been taken by 61.1% of OFP survivors after this week if they win.

CHI: Second most likely to win but also second most popular. Possible pick in two future weeks. Will have been taken by 51.5% of OFP survivors after this week if they win.

ARI: Least likely to win of four possible options, third most popular. Possible pick in five future weeks. Will have been taken by 9.8% of OFP survivors if they win.

IND: Third most likely to win, and not very popular at all. Possible pick in six future weeks, although to be fair only one of those lines (vs. TEN) is over -10. Will have been taken by 64.2% of OFP survivors if they win.

I think we can eliminate the Cardinals, since they are not doing too well in any of the four categories. The Bears are next, since their popularity greatly outweighs them being slightly more likely to win that IND. Beyond that, I think Indy's overall team strength and future value (obviously related factors) carry the day, so after all that I'm going with the most obvious option-- the Chargers are the pick this week.