This Is Also Completely Wrong

Same article:

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?
Yes: -160
No: +140

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown in the first half?
Yes: +175
No: -200

These two bets, taken together, are a very weird mix. The given likelihood of Gronkowski scoring a touchdown in the first half is just 35.3 percent, but his odds of scoring a touchdown in the game are at 59.6 percent. Those two numbers imply that Gronkowski will score in the second half about 92.1 percent of the time, and that a bet on Gronkowski not scoring in the second half would have true odds of about +1166 or so. I hope somebody offers that.

I have no idea. 92.1%? I don't know, man.

Eighth(?) grade probability time!

The setup:

The math:

.647 * x = .404
x = .624
1-x = .376

The result:

So illogical!!!!

Doing the math wrong...whatever. But doing the math wrong, getting an answer that MAKES NO SENSE, assuming you are correct, and just going with it? And if those two lines were truly implying something insane for the 2H, wouldn't one side of the 1H or FG line have to be way off, too? So...maybe look into that?

How Not To Handicap A Prop Bet

I still can't believe Barnwell actually wrote this:

What will the jersey number be of the first player to score a touchdown?
Over 80.5: EVEN
Under 80.5: -120

Few things have made me question my life decisions more than putting together a spreadsheet to answer this question. But I did it, taking every player who has scored for these two teams this year, removing guys who aren't going to play on Sunday, adjusting for the games they played in and missed. It was so fucking stupid on so many levels. But I did it. And in the end, I got an expected number of … 64.4. Great, so an offensive lineman is likely to score on Sunday! In reality, it just suggests that the running backs for the teams are likely a little undervalued here, and that logic only goes further with a possibly-limited Gronkowski (number 87). Go under here, but realize that we're all losers for playing.

I have no interest in legitimately handicapping this (I guess that makes two of us), so I just adjusted the numbers for people listed at Pinny to make them fit to "an expected number of ... 64.4":

As noted, the weighted average of these is 64.4. Based on this information, Bill Barnwell recommended the under. Hopefully the reason that this is horrendous analysis is really obvious.

If you do this really sophisticated thing called adding, however, you get 48.5% for the under. With the exact same data set. With a line of -120. So an ROI of -11.1%. Sometimes referred to as lighting money on fire. While, based on that same (made up) data, the other side is +EV, with a 51.5% bet being offered at +100.

I don't really have a point to close with here, so:

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLVI Props

Fifth annual, and still going strong(?). Here we go:

Who will win the Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Giants, +102
Patriots, +102

What will be the result of Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Heads, +102
Tails, +102

Not quite as good as last year, but this is still one of my favorites.

Will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TB during the game?
From kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only, halftime does not count.

Bodog:
Yes, -160
No, +120

5Dimes:
Yes, -215
No, +165

Arb! I tried to research this one but gave up after finding a fake Gisele Super Bowl blog and discovering that she is supposedly on her way to becoming very, very wealthy.

I went with "Yes, -160" at Bodog, which I cannot back up with math.

Who will be shown first?

SportsBetting:
Giselle Bundchen, -125
Abby Manning, -105

SportsInteraction
Giselle Bundchen, -120
Abby Manning, -120

I don't get why Giselle isn't favored by more; isn't she a LOT more famous than Eli's wife?

Who will the MVP thank first?

This one is the best. Sportsbook also has the same prop for winning coach rather than MVP, and is offering "Does Not Thank Anyone" at +800. My unofficial summary from the last four years:

Last year some books graded it as Rodgers thanking the defense (teammates), and some graded "Does Not Thank Anyone" as a winner since he didn't say the word "thank". Either way, +250 continues to be a great price, available across the board.

Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?

Not sure about this one. It's been orange the last two years, but yellow and clear the two before that; Stockle Mon has a more extensive summary. Since it was clear/water the last time each of these teams won and four of the last nine dumps, that seems like the best pick here if you can get the +215.

Will Kelly Clarkson omit/forget a word of the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Yes, +700
No, -1500

Bodog:
Yes, +300

Inspired by last year's mishap. No real opinion here; if anything I'd take the +700 at 5D, but probably just stay away.

How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Over 1:34, +100
Under 1:34, -140

Sportsbook:
Over 1:35, -115
Under 1:35, -115

Bodog:
Over 1:34, -120
Under 1:34, -120

SportsInteraction:
Over 134.5, -115
Under 134.5, -125

Stockle Mon has also researched this one quite a bit (good work!), and it doesn't seem like there's much of an edge. So, when in doubt, line shop. Here is my completely-made-up estimate of the probability of the total time being within each second:
The thought behind the skew was that 1:34 is a pretty low time, so there's more room to go way higher than way lower.

That was an unbelievable waste of time, but it does allow me to see if a middle might be worthwhile:

That's assuming the 5Dimes line is efficient (which is not true at all), but you can shift the graph around a bit and you still come out ahead, so I went for the O1:34/U1:35 middle.

Which city will receive a higher TV ratings (market share)?

Bodog:
Boston -7, -120
New York +7, -120

Reader Will W. recommended this one, noting that he laid the chalk. Wikipedia tells us that Boston won by 14 four years ago (81-67), although it seems possible that was a bit inflated since the Pats were 18-0.

There are also a bunch of props on what Madonna will wear/do at halftime, but I don't have much to add to those.

2011 NFL Survior: Second Round

Well, the Texans-Broncos combo worked out well, which was fortunate. In my particular pool Houston actually ended up being more popular than New Orleans, which must have been people wanting to save NOLA for future rounds. That made Saints-Broncos the best combo from an round one EV standpoint, although it's obviously not as attractive when you consider future value.

Anyway, on to the next round. This week I only need to make one pick. I think it makes more sense to look at this from the standpoint of picking a path the rest of the way, rather than just picking one team this week.

For example, if I pick Baltimore this week, that basically means I need to pick the DEN-NE winner next week, since if that team doesn't beat Baltimore I'm screwed anyway. And then in the Super Bowl I'd be left with the NFC winner, since I wouldn't have the AFC champ available.

With that in mind, here are my estimates for surviving through each round based on who you pick this week, which I figured out using various Pinny markets:

Worth noting that there's a negative correlation between the R2 and CC columns. For example, if you pick DEN this week and they win, then you get to pick either Baltimore or Houston hosting the Broncos next week. On the other hand, if you pick New England and advance, you're forced to take the Ravens or Texans on the road in Foxboro, which is less than ideal.

The numbers in this chart didn't surprise me much. Baltimore is the obvious choice, since if BAL advances you can (likely) take New England next week, and then the (likely favored) NFC in the Super Bowl.

I don't think they're the best pick though, as popularity has a huge effect here:

Realistically, I have no idea how many people are going to pick the underdogs; it hasn't happened in either of the last two years in this pool, but there are a lot more people left at this point than there have been in the past.

I don't think it really matters though. As long as you're in a decent sized pool, I would go with Denver. It's an extremely ugly pick this week -- which is the best part, really -- but it puts you in a great position in future weeks, and gives you a chance to be the only person to remain undefeated through the Super Bowl.

2011 NFL Survivor: Wild Card Weekend

Quick format summary: Same idea as regular season Survivor: except pick one team on Wild Card Saturday, one on WC Sunday, one in second round, one on CC Sunday, one in Super Bowl. Can't use any team twice, lose and you're out.

As noted on Twitter the other day, this year's first round doesn't set up quite as favorably as it has in the past.

Last season there was a huge favorite on Saturday (New Orleans) which was extremely popular, as you'd expect. But on Sunday, the majority of entrants picked the Ravens, who were the day's biggest favorite but only ~61% to win. This essentially meant that any of the other three Sunday options were strong picks, particularly the Chiefs (who got blown out, of course).

This year both days set up pretty much the same as that Saturday, with the Saints at ~84% to beat the Lions, and Pittsburgh about 78% to advance against Denver. The one positive is that taking those two is the very obvious pick, and I'd expect over half the entries to go that route. In fact, I have made up consensus numbers for each team:

Saints 70%
Texans 17%
Bengals 10%
Lions 3%

Steelers 68%
Giants 17%
Falcons 8%
Broncos 7%

These numbers, along with the MLs from Pinny, give us almost everything we need. Just a few more things to consider:

• If someone picks New Orleans on Saturday, they're more likely to take Pittsburgh on Sunday than the average entry. In math terms, the % of entries that take both NO and PIT will be higher than the straight calculation of (.70)*(.68). This is taken into account in the EV table below.

• Future value isn't normally too much of an issue in the first round, since the teams that advance will all be playing road games next weekend. However, this season the Saints are the second favorite to win the NFC (+298/-341 at Pinny), so that must be considered. Pittsburgh also has a worthwhile amount of future value (+528/-642), if not quite as much. This is not taken into account in the EV table below.

• Beyond a specific team's future value, it's worth considering how you set yourself up for future weeks. For example, I think it's worthwhile to try to avoid picking the Lions if possible. That way, if the Saints win (likely) and I advance (maybe), I'll have the option of picking New Orleans over SF next week, which will not be a popular option since a) most survivors will have already used them, and b) they're on the road.
  

And finally, the EV table below (assuming $1 entry fee):

Unsurprisingly, the really obvious combo doesn't do very well in this analysis, as even if you advance by picking those two teams, it's guaranteed that at least half of your competitors will still be alive as well.

Such a popular pick being -EV allows 14 of the other 15 possibilities to be at least breakeven. Since I'm assuming only a 17/10 split in popularity between HOU/CIN, despite the Texans being 62% to advance, they come out looking like a pretty good option to pair with any non-Steelers partner.

I think the EVs in the chart above give us a good general idea of the best picks, but it's tough to be exact due to the uncertainty and importance of the consensus numbers. I will stand by Texans/Broncos as the best combo though, as it has a decent lead on the field.

Of course, there's a 87% chance that combo doesn't survive the weekend; all I'm really trying to do here is predict which option will have the highest EV when I repeat this analysis with the "real" consensus numbers next week.

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 17

Last week:

CAR: W, 48-16
PIT: W, 27-0
BAL: W, 20-14
HOU: L, 19-16
TEN: W, 23-17
WAS: L, 33-26
GB: W, 35-21

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans,Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Impressively, I've already used each of the seven biggest favorites this week. That leaves me picking from some pretty marginal teams, but the best option left is Jacksonville, so they're the final pick of the regular season. Coming next week: Playoff Survivor!

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 16

Last week:

TEN: L, 27-13
ATL: W, 41-14
NO: W, 42-20
GB: L, 19-14
ARI: W, 20-17
NYG: L, 23-10
CIN: W, 20-13

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets, San Francisco, Baltimore, Atlanta.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

I'm pleasantly surprised that I have two decent options available this week, in the Panthers and Redskins. Carolina is a bit more likely to win and not overly popular, so they are the pick for Week 16.