Who's MLB's best player, pound for pound? The result may shock you.
Posnanski on Roddick.
I'm somewhat upset I wasn't around for the Nats game on Tuesday night.
BA's midseason top 25 prospects.
Breaking down Jamie McOwen's 45-game Cal League hit streak.
Nate Silver did not win the WSOP.
FO unveils DVOA 6.0.
Friday, July 10, 2009
This Week's Links (7/6-7/10)
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Obama First Pitch Odds
5Dimes is awesome:
There are plenty of pictures of Obama throwing out the first pitch for the White Sox last October, but I can't find a video. It looks like he stood at the top of the mound, which is both good (he at least thinks he knows what he's doing), and bad (it's farther than in front of the mound). So if anyone can dig up that video, that'd be great.
If I remember correctly, it was a pretty decent pitch, easily making it to the catcher on the fly. I'd lean "caught in air" for now, but it is a lot of chalk, and I'm definitely going off minimal evidence at this point.
Monday, July 6, 2009
AL Update: 13 Weeks In
How well did the game lines from April and May (that's simplifying it, but those are basically the time frames) predict those in June (through 6/28)? Pretty closely:
I can't think of any reason for the April lines to be weighted more heavily than the May odds; that's probably just a fluky thing. Combined, the lines from the first two months explain about 57% of the variance in the June lines, and there's not a whole lot of regression towards PECOTA/CHONE; in fact, the two weights add up to over one (1.05). For this post, I weighted the months as follows: 40% June, 30% May, 20% April.
RS/G, RA/G: Through games of Sunday, 7/5.
Current: Current team strength in wins per 162 games against an average schedule.
Current Div%: Current percentage chance of winning division, as of 7am EST on 7/6.
Prev Div%: Percentage chance of winning division as of six weeks ago.
Diff: Subtraction.
Div: Best odds available on team to win division.
Site: Where those odds can be found (BetUS, SportsBetting, Bookmaker)
Why do the game lines have the Yanks so far ahead of Boston? Let's find out:
n: Number of starts.
The Twins are definitely interesting, with the best run differential (+33) and best third-order record (45-38) in the division, to go along with the strongest club according to the game lines. Detroit's 4.8 R/G is respectable, but most of that has been good timing: their AEQR is 20 runs fewer than that, and their team OPS+ is just 93. Throw in some regression from Jackso, Porcello (who's being skipped in the rotation to keep his innings down), and Rodney's save percentage and it's easy to see the Tigers falling off a bit in the second half.
Toronto may have a stretch in August or September that's tougher, but, as pointed out by USSM, this has to be close to the most difficult nine game road trip of the year:
The odds expected the Mariners to go 3.3-5.7 over those games, a .369 W%. As you can see, Seattle actually won five of nine, keeping them right in the mix in the West. Going 5-4 may not seem all that impressive, but if you keep every other team's results constant those nine games boosted their ALW odds significantly, from 11.4% to the 15.3% seen above.Friday, July 3, 2009
This Week's Links (6/29-7/3)
Posnanski questions Hillman's use of Meche.
Wyers on the reliability of UZR.
Brooklyn native Lance Stephenson signs with Cincy.
Nate Silver is playing in the WSOP.
Pos on The Great Mariano.
The OC Register interviews Sean "CHONE" Smith.
RAB looks at the accuracy of various MLB mock drafts.
Friday, June 26, 2009
These Weeks' Links (6/15-6/19, 6/22-6/26)
Brandon Jennings made quite an entrance.
Steve Lyons really doesn't like sabermetrics. Neither does Harold Reynolds.
USC is the favorite to be the next school to commit an NCAA violation.
Simmons' draft diary.
What's the problem with the Indians?
Are golfers more aggressive on par puts than birdie attempts, even from the same distance?
Steinberg on the Boston invasion of Nationals Park.
Pujols calls his shot.
The whole Jerod Morris thing was rather absurd.
How much should Strasburg get?
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Thursday, June 11, 2009
This Week's Links (6/8-6/12)
I have $18MM in the "how much guaranteed money will Strasburg get" pool. I think I'm in pretty good shape, actually.
Get your Natinals shirts here.
Early HITf/x analysis from Pavlidis, Fast, and a bit more from Fast.
MGL and Gassko on out-guessing projections.


