What Are The Odds: 30 Wins

Brandon Webb is off to another great start- 8-0, with a 2.41 ERA. His insane ground ball rate (63.2%) has allowed him to give up only 2 homers over 56 innings.

On the surface, this is very similar to 2006, when he started off 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA. In terms of his chances of winning some ridiculous number of games though, two things are different this year.

The first is that this year he's gone 8-0 in 8 starts, while two years ago it took him 11 to reach that mark. This means, assuming he makes 34 starts, he's "on pace" to go 34-0, rather than 25-0. More relevantly, he has 8 wins with 26 starts left, rather than with 23.

The second is Arizona's offense. In '06, they averaged 4.77 R/G. So far this year they've scored 216 runs in 39 games, which works out to 5.54 R/G. They are unlikely to keep up that pace, but the offense is certainly better than it has been in years past. PECOTA had them at 5.07 R/G before the season started, and AEQR has them at 5.03 R/G so far. So, going forward, PECOTA's 5.07 is probably as good a guess as any.

The preseason projections has Webb's ERA at between 3.01 and 3.49, with an average of about 3.35. Adding in 56 innings of 2.41 ERA and a 2.92 FIP so far this year, and 3.25 is probably about what we should expect the rest of the year.

We also have to factor in the bullpen. PECOTA had Arizona's bullpen at a 4.52 ERA- they've exceeded that expectation so far, with a 3.30 ERA in 120 innings. So, we'll put them at 4.40. Webb averages 7.0 innings per start, so that means the Diamondbacks will give up an average of 3.51 runs in Webb's starts. If they score 5.07 R/G, they'll have a winning percentage of .662 in his starts.

He won't get decisions in all of those though. Over the past couple years, he's gotten decisions in 85% of his team's wins. So, finally, we come to what percentage of starts he'll get the W in- 56.3%.

Assuming he makes 26 more starts, here's what we should expect his win output to be:

This is incredible. The most likely scenario is 23 wins. That is a lot. Here are the odds that he hits various milestones:

An 89% chance to win 20 games is pretty nuts. Before the season started, he had about a 45% chance of winning 20 games, so the 8-0 start really helped.

25 games is also a realistic possibility, which should come as no surprise. 30 is noticeably less so. If he gets decisions in 85% of his starts, we'd expect him to get 22 more decisions- to get 22 more wins would be pretty incredible. It is possible, though.

With two more wins than anyone else in baseball, Webb has already jumped out to the lead in the NL Cy Young race. Zambrano or Hudson could give him a run for his money, and Peavy's always a threat. Sheets if he stays healthy and the Brewers remember how to score runs. It would be cool if Volquez managed to stay in the race- having a low enough ERA is tough in that park, but he's got a head start with a Gibsonesque 1.12 ERA this far. I'd love to see Lincecum win it but, unfortunately, he plays for the Giants.

Also: BREAKING: Kazmir Signs [BPro Unfiltered]

Photo: AZ Sports Hub.

Futures Watch: Week 7

This week:
Oakland, 35:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 23-17
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.3%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 23-16
PECOTA: 46.3%

If the season ended today...What, it doesn't? Can we change that rule? Please?

Tampa's odds at different books have been quite strange. At Sportsbook, they're 100:1 to win it all, and 5:1 to win the division. At BetUS, they're 35:1 to win it all and, until a few hours ago, were 16:1 to win the East (it's been changed to 6:1). Those ratios make no sense. This is what happens when you win six in a row, and they change one set of odds, but don't get to the other.

16:1 is gone, but the 100:1 line at Sportsbook is still quite good. The best odds you can get on them anywhere else are 55:1 at 5Dimes. I know I said this last week, but it's only a matter of time before Sportsbook changes their odds dramatically; that's especially true after their performance in the last week.

We are now almost a quarter of way through the season- Tampa has played 39 games. The Rays are on pace to allow 652 runs. I understand offense is always down at the beginning of the season before the weather warms up, and that's especially true this year. But that is 292 fewer run than last year. Even if you factor in the significant difference in run environments (9.8 R/G last year, 8.8 this year), that's 218 fewer runs. It's an insane turnaround, and one which has been caused mostly by defense- they are on pace to be 248 plays better on balls in play than last year, which equates to about a 200 run improvement.

The inability of the mainstream media to distinguish between the Rays and the Marlins is annoying. Florida is off to a good start, which is great. But the reason for this is, as Sheehan put it, "they had Jim Boeheim draw up the schedule". Tampa's third order winning percentage is .579; Florida's is .497. The fact that they play in the same start, and both have low payrolls, doesn't make them comparable teams.

I am losing interesting in Oakland. 35:1? 4:1 to win the division? No thanks.

Milwaukee, 60:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 20-19
PECOTA: 43.7%

This is interesting. Their highest odds anywhere else are 35:1.

Their offense's OPS, which was 106 last year, is down to 93 this season. The main culprits for this are Prince Fielder (.250/.349/.412), Rickie Weeks (.190/.311/.340), and J.J. Hardy (.254/.333/.323). Braun is the only hitter who has been significantly above average, and that's only because he's raised his OPS by 147 points in four games. As expected, they've struggled against righties, hitting .240/.313/.380. But they haven't been particularly good against lefties either, with a .252/.334/.434 line.

They have actually been a couple games worse than their record, as they've been outscored by 14 runs. They've been even worse in terms of EQR/EQRA, at -30. Even if it's come against a difficult schedule, t's been a rough six weeks.

Still, 60:1 is pretty high. Prince Fielder isn't going to continue slugging .412 forever. PECOTA expects them to reach the playoffs 43.7% of the time. That may be overly optimistic, but even if we knock it down to 35%, and give them a 40% chance of advancing through each round of the playoffs, they should be about 45:1.

Is Cliff Lee Mortal?

Neyer continues the Neyer/MGL Cliff Lee saga today:

"What does any of it mean? Is Lee a Cy Young candidate now? Let's assume 1) he's reasonably healthy for the rest of the season, and 2) beginning today he merely hits his career numbers: six innings per start, 4.37 ERA. If those things happen, Lee finishes the season with a 3.26 ERA, which last year would have been sixth-best in the league. Cy Young-worthy? C.C. Sabathia won the award last year with a 3.21 ERA; Josh Beckett finished second with a 3.27 ERA.

So is Lee a Cy Young candidate right now? Yeah, I think he is. Based purely on what he's done throughout his career, and not just this spring."

Before I get into this I want to quickly talk about this whole, "Yeah, but he hasn't faced any real offenses" criticism. It's true that Lee hasn't faced particularly stellar lineups: Oakland (twice), Minnesota, Kansas City, Seattle, New York, and Toronto. But how much of a difference has that made?

By AEQR, here is the strength of each offense, in R/G, that Lee has faced, after taking out their performance against him.

He faced the Yankees without A-Rod or Posada, and Toronto without Wells*. So knock them down to 4.60 and 4.50, respectively. Weighting the A's twice, that averages out to 4.32. The AL average in non-Cliff Lee starts is 4.58. So, yeah, he's faced bad offenses- 0.26 runs below average. So that bumps his ERA up to 0.93, his FIP up to 2.11, and his QERA up to 3.03. Somehow, I think he'll be okay.

So, is Cliff Lee a Cy Young candidate? To get an idea of where he stands, I used each player's PECOTA to finish out the season, assuming each pitcher would make 26 more starts. I added that to their current stats, and plugged it into the Cy Young Predictor formula (which takes into account wins, losses, IP, ER, Ks, and shutouts). I looked at both perennial contenders, and guys off to quick starts this year. Halladay and Saunders were also included, but didn't make the cut for the table below. Remember, this is being outrageously pessimistic about Lee going forward- PECOTA had his ERA at 4.95.

(Quick note: I understand that wins are not a good measure of pitcher value. I get it. But the question is whether Cliff Lee is a Cy Young candidate, rather than whether we should expect Cliff Lee to be the most valuable pitcher in the league this year. And, in the coming months, sports books will have odds on the former criteria, and not the latter.)

Here are the predicted standings:

Matsuzaka is the only guy who combines a tremendous start in the Cy Young categories (6-0, 2.45 ERA, 40 Ks) with an optimistic PECOTA (4.00 ERA). Whether he can keep this up while walking six guys per game is another story entirely.

The only guy that seems out of place here is Wang. He is 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA, and has a career ERA of 3.69. But PECOTA was down on him, probably because of the low K rate, expecting Wang to have a 4.40 ERA. So he should probably be higher on the list.

That's not the focus here though. The point is that, as Neyer hypothesizes, Lee is still a Cy Young candidate even if he goes back to his mediocre form of years past. Starting off 6-0 with a 0.67 ERA will have that effect. He's not at the top of the list, but he's in the conversation- he finishes 15-10, with a 3.74 ERA, and 158 Ks in 190 IP. Not your typical Cy Young numbers, but remember these are all averages, so nothing is going to jump off the page.

But what about if we're a little more optimistic about Lee's final 26 starts? How about a 4.00 ERA, 6.5 K/9, and wins in 38% of his starts.

That puts Lee's Cy Young Predictor score at 140.8, far ahead of his competitors- 16-7, 3.19 ERA. And, considering his FIP and QERA after 53.2 IP, I don't think a 4.00 ERA is an unreasonable expectation. In conclusion, not only is Cliff Lee a Cy Young candidate, he may even be the favorite at this point.

*I noticed, while looking through his game logs, that Lee has pitched the second game of a doubleheader twice this season. In those two starts, against Kansas City and Toronto, he's gone 18 innings, and hasn't allowed a run while striking out 14 and walking 2. I wonder if scoring is lower the second game of a doubleheader than on average. My guess is that it probably is- you have some guys sitting out, and others have already played a game earlier in the day. Wouldn't really make a difference, but interesting nonetheless.

Photo: RotoZoo.

2008 NFL Wins Over/Unders

These are from Sportsbook. They are the first to post them, I believe.

8.5 for the defending Super Bowl champs. Nice.

Some crazy juice on these, since the season is 1/10 as long as baseball and there's not much room to move them around. Ignoring the juice for now, average wins for each division:

The NFC average is 7.72, while the AFC is 8.03 (the overall average is less than 8; it looks like you have to pay more juice for most of the overs, though). The only NFC team over 8.5 is the Cowboys, at 10.5.

Money Line had a post a few weeks back listing various helpful stats from last year. The correlation between last year's wins and this year's O/Us is .887; the correlation between last year's Pythag record and this year's O/Us is .900.

Here are the biggest difference between '07 Pythag and '08 O/U:

The three teams with the biggest discrepancies between '07 wins and '07 Pythag were the Patriots (16, 13.8), Bills (7, 4.9), and Dolphins (1, 3.8). So, in theory, that would make the NE U, BUF U, and MIA O attractive, although there are obviously many other factors to consider.

What Are The Odds: Chipper's Quest For .400

It's May 11th, and Chipper Jones currently has a .400 batting average. This has inspired some discussion about whether Chipper can hit .400 for the entire season. Well, it's obviously a possibility, but how unlikely is it?

The first thing to do here is to figure out Chipper's true talent level. He's hitting .400 at the moment, but it's certainly lower than that. Various projections had him between .294 and .318
in the preseason. PECOTA expected him to hit .316. I'm going to use that, and incorporate his current .400 BA over 148 PAs (as Tango describes here) to arrive at an expected BA of .32677 going forwards.*

The next thing is to figure out is how many at-bats he'll end up with. This is very important- it's a lot easier to hit .400 over 10 ABs than over 1000. Before the season started, PECOTA expected him to have 600 PAs. Incorporating the 148 PAs he's already accumulated over his team's first 35 games, we should expect 618 PAs at this point- that'd mean about 525 ABs. I'll also include situations where he has 518, 568, and 668 PAs, since the probabilities will be different for each.

Using this information, here are the chances that he hits .400 given each number of PAs:

Ideally, he'd like to get exactly 502 PAs, which is the minimum required to qualify for the batting title. If he did that, his odds would be 1 in 225. As those PAs go up, it gets very unlikely, very quickly. Weighting the 618 PA scenario as 40%, and the other three as 10%, 30%, and 20%, respectively, we come to odds of 1 in 546.

If he keeps this up (unlikely), some enterprising gambling site will probably offer odds on whether he'll hit .400. I'll be interested to see what they are, although I'm sure they'll be absolutely terrible. If they were listed now, I think they'd probably be along the lines of 50:1, maybe even 25:1.

I think this is because it's a rate stat, rather than a counting stat. What I mean is that he's hitting .400 now, so at first glance it seems at least somewhat likely that he'll keep it up. Contrast this with a guy who gets off to a hot start (20 HRs) hitting 70 HRs- he's still got a long way to go. For a guy hitting .400 with 20 HRs at this point in the season, even if it's more likely that he hits 70 HRs, it'll seem more likely, to the average person, that he'll hit .400, since he "just" has to keep up his pace, rather than more than triple his HR total.

The ideal candidate would walk a ridiculous amount. In 2004, Bonds had 617 PAs, so he easily qualified for the batting title, but only 373 ABs. He probably had a better chance of hitting .400 that year than anyone else in recent memory- he ended up at .362.

The closest thing to that today is Pujols. He's walked in 21.7% of his plate appearances so far. In theory, he could end up with the requisite 502 PAs, but only about 385 ABs. He's off to a very good start himself, hitting .348 through 172 PAs. If we figure his true talent level at .335 (which includes the boost explained below), he'd have a 1 in 694 chance of hitting .400 if he ended up with exactly 502 PAs this year. Lower than Chipper, but only because he's currently hitting 52 points lower. Point being, the person most likely to hit .400 in 2009 is probably Pujols, both because of all the walks and his historically high BAs.

*There's a reason I'm using such an optimistic prediction. Since we only care whether he reaches such an extreme milestone or not, his BA for the purposes of figuring out whether he'll hit .400 or not is higher than his expected BA for the rest of the year in all situations. For example, take two scenarios, one in which he hits .200 over the next two months, another in which he continues to hit .400. To determine his BA over the last two months of the year, the first example is irrelevant- if he's hitting .285 on July 10, he is not going to hit .400, so we don't care. However, if he's hitting .400 on July 10,he still has a shot. So, we care about the .200 but not the .400, which skews his batting average for this exercise upwards. Thus the optimistic .32677 BA.

Photo: FanIQ

Also: Forget What You Think You Know [The Money Line Journal]

This Week's Links (5/5-5/9)

14-22. Worst record in the AL. First baseman throwing his helmet at opposing pitchers. Fire McLaren!

"Charles Barkley Is a Dumbass."

Cliff Lee took the subway to Yankee Stadium before his start on Wednesday. He should just run for President at this point, really.

What would happen if you let a pitcher play CF? Oh, I see.

"Wait, let me get this straight, you proposed when it wasn’t even Felix day?"

Starting price for Super Bowl XLIII commercials: $3 million.

Congratulations to Brian Sabean, winner of the Worst GM tournament.

#1 Pick Odds

First off, Sportsbook followed The Greek's lead and put up odds on the Draft lottery. Strangely, some of them are pretty close to the true odds. The Knicks should be +1216; Sportsbook has them at +1200. I'm not really sure what they get out of this- if they want to have more attractive odds than The Greek, why not put them at +1000? At +1200, they are barely making any money.

They also have odds on who the #1 pick will be; this is somewhat more interesting, since we don't already know what the actual odds are.


This matches my intuition- it's essentially a coin flip between Beasley and Rose, and it'd be a shock if anyone else went first.

Obviously, a lot of this depends on which team wins the lottery. So I figured I'd mess around with ESPN's Lottery Mock Draft thing, and see which teams picked which players when they landed the top pick.

Here are the results, along with the percentage of the time that the team in question is expected to get the #1 pick.

The Pacers (0.8%) and Trail Blazers (0.6%) are noticeably absent from this list. That's because they never won in the ridiculous number of lotteries I ran, so I don't know who they would pick. Edit: Apparently he has both teams taking Rose. Which kind of makes the next paragraph irrelevant.

I question the uniformity in the bottom of this list, with each of the last six teams choosing Beasley. This may be true, but it's also possible that Chad Ford didn't actually break down the "2,184 potential lottery scenarios", and Beasley was the pick for these teams by default.

Mostly on the strength of being theoretically picked by the Heat, Timberwolves, and Grizzlies, Beasley looks like the favorite. I wouldn't bet on him with this information, since I have no clue how accurate Chad Ford's predictions on this are- it's likely that the oddsmakers' predictions are superior. We'll see if the odds change after the lottery, which is on May 20.