Since it is impossible impossible to link directly to the odds (they can be found under Basketball, NBA Championship Futures, Exact Games), I will start off by posting them here.
What I then did was was translate each of these odds into a percentage. A calculation is then needed to take out the advantage that the sportsbook has. In the end, all the percentages add up to 100% and look like this:
Quick summary: the Spurs have a 77.6% chance of winning the series. The series has a 23.9% chance of going seven games, with San Antonio winning that seventh game 58% of the time (this seems low to me, since the Spurs would be at home in Game 7, but thats what it says.)
I figured we should develop a prediction using this table. I took the winning percentage for the Cavs in each scenario (for example, for Spurs in 5, it's .200), and multiplied it by the percent chance each scenario has of occuring. The sum of all these products gives us the Cavs' cumulative winning percentage of all these scenarios (home/road neutral). That number comes out to 34.4%.
Finally, this means that the Spurs cumulative winning percentage is 65.6%. So for each game, the Spurs on average will come away with .656 wins (I know that doesn't make any concrete sense). What does all this mean?
Official Vegas Watch NBA Finals prediction: Spurs in 6.1
0 comments:
Post a Comment