Handicapping World Series Chances

Using Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds, one can pretty easily get a solid grasp of each team's chances of making the playoffs.

The following list is an attempt to take this one step further, and determine the percentage chance each team has of winning the World Series.

I have made four adjustments to each team's playoff chances to derive the odds seen below:

• Divided their playoff % by eight, as this would be their % if each team had an equal chance in October
• Made an adjustment based on each team's current expected winning percentage (measured by RS and RA)
• Made an adjustment based on how well they would have to play to get into the playoffs
• Finally, I made an adjustment based on BP's Secret Sauce formula, which isolates three factors that have proven to make a difference in October (having a pitching staff with a high strikeout rate, having a good closer, and having a strong fielding team)

The first number seen after each team listed is their percentage chance to win the World Series. The second number is what their odds should be in Vegas based on this percentage.

Statistics taken from Baseball Reference. Pictures taken from here, here, here, here, and here.

1. Boston: 17.2%, 5:1

The man pictured on the left is heating up, hitting .375/.460/.700 over his last 12 games. And it may seem that Ortiz is having a down year with only 16 HR, but his 32 doubles make up for it, as his OPS+ (160) is on par with '05 and '06.

2. Mets: 12.3%, 7:1

Wright's 0 HR April was an aberration, as his SLG was .596 and .583 in May and June, respectively. Unfortunately for the Mets so was the April pitching- their monthly ERA has steadily risen each month from 2.96 in April to 4.95 in July.

3. Tigers: 10.9%, 8:1

Neither their success of hitting with RISP (.320 AVG) and their failures in the pen (4.71 ERA from relievers) are likely to continue to be so extreme, and their regressions to the mean may cancel each other out. Regardless, the Tigers are a scary team, especially if Zumaya comes back and returns to last year's form (1.94 ERA, 10.5 K/9).

4. Dodgers: 10.1%, 9:1

After averaging 4.35 R/G over their first 60, Los Angeles' offense, led by Matt Kemp (.374/.415/.591) and James Loney (.361/.412/.529) has exploded for 5.28 R/G over their last 40 games.

5. Brewers: 9.13%, 10:1

Braun's .657 SLG will obviously decline, but it's not exactly going to be a freefall- last year, as a 22-year old at AA Huntsville, he had a SLG of .589 in 231 AB.

6. Indians: 7.80%, 12:1

Possibly more than anyone else in baseball, the Indians' chances on a given night depend on who's on the hill. Their top guys, Sabathia and Carmona, are 25-8 with a 3.68 ERA. Sabathia in particular has been fantastic, with a 127:21 K:BB ratio. On the other end of the spectrum they are really held down by their fourth and fifth starters, Lee and Westbrook, who have gone 6-12, 6.00.

7. Angels: 7.64%, 12:1

After a 49-27 start, the Angels have slumped of late, going 8-13 over their last 21 games. Even so, the West is certainly still theirs to lose.

8. Padres: 6.06%, 15:1

The Padres' pitching (123 ERA+) is still fantastic, but their top two guys are going in opposite directions; Peavy has been slumping, losing his last three starts, while Chris Young has been on fire (3-0, 0.75 ERA, 45 K in 36 IP over his last six starts).

9. Cubs: 5.49%: 17:1

Chicago's run at the Brewers in the Central has been powered by their pitching (115 ERA+, second in the NL). After a slow start, Carlos Zambrano (6-2, 1.55 ERA, 58 IP, 28 H, 63 K over his last eight starts) and Ted Lilly (4-0, 1.98 ERA in his last four starts) have been tremendous.

10. Braves: 3.07%, 32:1

Nobody seems to notice, probably because they aren’t exactly new kids on the block, but Chipper (.345/.438/.599, more BB (48) than K (43) and Smoltz (9-5, 2.88, 112.2 IP, 24 BB) are both having fantastic years.

11. Mariners: 2.83%, 34:1

According to BP’s adjusted standings, Seattle has overachieved by 7.5 games so far, the most in the majors. But maybe there’s still hope- interestingly, the Angels are third, having overachieved by 6.9 games.

12. Yankees: 2.62%, 36:1

The problem is getting there. If this list were simply based on chances of winning a playoff series, the Yankees would be fifth. But their chances of making the playoffs are less than 1 in 4.

13. Phillies: 1.65%, 60:1

If Hamels (23 years old, 11-5, 3.69) figures out how to keep the ball in the park (1.44 HR/9), he’ll really be scary.

14. Twins: 1.11%, 90:1

Having Nick Punto (.214/.306/.281) play every day isn’t conducive to winning championships. Of the seven guys who have made seven or more starts, only Santana has an ERA under 4.53.

15. Rockies: 0.56%, 175:1

After Helton, Holliday and Hawpe (OPS+ of 131, 137, and 136, respectively), none of the other seven guys with 140+ ABs have an OPS+ of over 100.

16. Diamondbacks: 0.48%, 200:1

The young guys almost have to improve the rest of the way. Drew, Young, and Quentin, all under 25, have given them 862 ABs at .230/.292/.384 so far.

17. Athletics: 0.34%, 300:1

Over their current 2-11 stretch, Oakland is averaging 2.4 runs per game.

18. Blue Jays: 0.33%, 300:1

Even without their $47M closer, Toronto’s bullpen has been excellent, with a 3.59 ERA. The fact that they play in the AL East is a weakness.

19. Marlins: 0.19%, 500:1

20. Cardinals: 0.12%, 800:1

In his last 11 games, Albert Pujols has a SLG of 1.000 and has raised his OPS from .927 to .996.

21. Orioles: 0.028%, 3500:1

22. Giants: 0.025%, 4000:1

Lincecum’s last five starts: 3-0, 1.05 ERA, 34.1IP, 41 K

The rest:

And finally…

30. Devil Rays: 0.00000%, Infinity:1

In both of BP’s simulations, the Rays don’t make the playoffs in any of the one million simulations, leading to them being someone of a longshot to win it all.