Tuesday, July 10, 2007

How is Colorado Still 150:1?

Since my last post about futures lines, there has been significant movement in both the lines and the standings. There is currently one line that really sticks out (this is probably obvious from the title of this post), which can be seen in the chart below.

As always, I used lines from four sites (SB, VIP, Bodog, SI) and the BP Playoff Odds (normal and PECOTA) to create these rankings. I've added a new column, "Expected", which is just what I would expect the line to be for each of these teams.


The good people at VIP just aren't paying much attention to the Rockies. The best odds Colorado has on the three other sites is 75:1 (at Sports Interaction). Both BP projections give them about a 10% chance of making the playoffs. 100:1 would be reasonable, but 150:1 is just way too high.

Obviously, VIP is the place to go, as they have the seven best lines.

The Pirates confuse me. I don't understand why they're as high as 60:1 on two other sites.

The VIP line for them actually seems more realistic to me.
The only other line that really jumps out ot me is Milwaukee. You're not getting better than 10:1 on any other site for them, so 14:1 is pretty damn good.

The rest of the lines are somewhat uninteresting at the moment, so I'm going to take a look at the lines I've suggested in the past. Last week, I was all over Seattle (100:1) and Oakland (60:1). Well Seattle is as high as 35% to make the playoffs on one of BP's projections, and the best you're doing on them right now is 30:1. Oakland hasn't played particularly well, but their best odds have come down to 50:1, which is right where they should be.

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