First Half MVP: Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia (.325/.401/.571). Hanley Ramirez actually leads the entire NL in VORP, but Utley’s defense is the difference here. This article is just one example of the huge difference in their defensive abilities.
First Half Cy Young: John Maine, NY Mets (10-4, 2.71 ERA, 109.2 IP, 93 K). Maine is 4th among NL pitchers in VORP, 20 spots above anyone else on the first place Mets.
First Half Surprise (Player): Dmitri Young, 1B, Washington (.339/.390/.512). Young’s story (HT: Mottram) is amazing, and he’s probably the main reason the Nationals aren’t going to lose 100 games (that is a compliment, however backhanded).
First Half Surprise (Team): As I begin to realize how dumb it was to force myself to pick a surprise team from every division, I’m going to cheat and go with how tight the whole division is. Weren’t the Mets supposed to be a WS contender (not that they aren’t), and the Nationals supposed to be one of the worst teams ever? Well, at the break the Nationals are only 12.5 back of mighty New York.
In fact, the NL East has been the most predictable division. Here’s each division’s average of how far off PECOTA was on each team:
Obviously, the NL has gone according to form, while the AL has had some surprises. While I’m messing around in Excel, here’s the top five most surprising teams, according to PECOTA (overachieving teams in green, obviously):
The Mets have the best defense in baseball. David Wright probably hasn’t been this good, but Wright, Beltran, and Reyes are all excellent.
Jose Reyes’ OBPs since 2005: .300, .354, .387. He already has 20 more walks this year than he did in 696 PA in ’05. He’s also on pace to steal 86 bases, which would be the most since Rickey Henderson stole 93 for the Yankees in 1988. After slugging .311 in May, David Wright has picked it up to his current line of .292/.373/.506. He’s also 18 of 19 in SB attempts (the Mets’ 106 stolen bases leads the NL by 30). The Mets’ offense is only eighth in the NL, partially due to the fact they have used seven different LFs and five different RFs.
The Mets are third in the NL in ERA (3.93), thanks mostly to the staff’s absurd April (2.96 ERA). Tom Glavine had a rough June in his march to 300 wins, posting a 5.83 ERA. In the pen, you expect Billy Wagner (12.0 K/9) to be nasty, but Pedro Feliciano has managed to duplicate his 2006 season, and Joe Smith has also been tremendous.
Andruw Jones’ defense can be debated forever, but that’s really not the issue at this point- he’s been excellent in center in his contract year, but suddenly forgot how to hit (.211/.310/.410). Besides Chipper and Renteria, the Braves don’t have too many big names on offense, but Kelly Johnson (.287/.386/.467), Matt Diaz (.353/.375/.471) and Willie Harris (.419 OBP) have gotten the job done. Despite having Scott Thorman (.253 OBP) as their everyday first baseman, and the damage Ryan Langerhans managed to do (-8.9 VORP) in just 52 PA, the Braves are sixth in the NL in runs.
Smoltz (3.07 ERA) and Hudson (3.54 ERA) have been strong at the front of the rotation, and Chuck James (3.97 ERA) has also been solid. But after that there’s a huge falloff. Kyle Davies (4-7, 5.55) has struggled, and the fifth spot has been by everyone from Mark Redman (0-4, 11.63) to Buddy Carlyle. The bullpen (3.69 ERA) has been solid, led by Peter Moylan (46.2 IP, 2.12 ERA), Rafael Soriano (2.79 ERA) and Oscar Villarreal.
Chase Utley is on pace for 63 doubles; the record is 67 by Earl Webb in 1931 (Magglio Ordonez is on pace for 66). Ryan Howard is actually fourth on the team in VORP (also behind Rollins and Rowand), as his SLG is down to .555 from last year’s ridiculous .659. The Phillies’ 86% SB success rate leads the NL (the Mets are second at 83%). They have Shane Victorino (27/29) and Michael Bourn (13/13) to thank for that.
Philadelphia’s team ERA of 4.95 is worst in the National League. They split this quite evenly between starters (4.99) and the bullpen (4.85). Cole Hamels (10-4, 3.72, 9.4 K/9) has been excellent, and Moyer (4.43) and Lieber (4.73) have been okay. Adam Eaton is actually 8-5 despite being below replacement level (5.69 ERA, -0.9 VORP). Freddy Garcia (1-5, 5.90) was even worse before mercifully hurting his shoulder in early June. Ryan Madson (3.66 ERA) and Antonio Alfonseca (3.93 ERA) have been decent in relief, but Geoff Geary (5.31 ERA, -9.5 VORP) has been awful, and the Jose Mesa experiment (ERA is “only” 4.72, but five unearned runs in 13.1 IP) hasn’t quite worked out.
After Hanley Ramirez (must be nice to have a 23-year old SS slugging .538) and Miguel Cabrera (who’s settling into a nice .325/.400/.570 annual line), there’s not much to get excited about offensively. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Those two guys carry the lineup, and the Marlins don’t have anybody with more than 25 ABs who’s been below replacement level. Because of this, they’re fourth in the NL in runs.
None of the three ’06 rookie studs (Johnson, Sanchez, Olsen) have been able to duplicate their success this year, with ERAs of 7.47, 4.80, and 5.23, respectively. Dontrelle Willis has seen both his HR/9 and BB/9 rates increase over the last couple years, causing his ERA to balloon from 2.63 to 3.87 to 4.72 over that period. Sergio Mitre (2.85 ERA, under 2 BB/9) has actually been Florida’s best starter. In the pen Kevin Gregg and Justin Miller have been excellent, but the miserable performances of Jorge Julio (12.54 ERA in 10 appearances in April and May) and Taylor Tankersley (6.65 ERA in 23 IP before being sent down) have hurt them.
The Nationals are last in the NL in hitting. There have been a couple unexpected bright spots, however. Dmitri Young came out of nowhere to hit .339/.390/.512 before the break. And Christian Guzman (he of the .219/.260/.314 line in ’06) was great in May and June, and had a .329/.382/.468 line before tearing a ligament in his thumb. With Guzman out the rest of the year, and Young probably coming back down to earth, the Nats’ offense could be in for a long second half (not that the first half was particularly kind to them).
The Nationals’ rotation has been bad (5.21 ERA), but that was expected. Shawn Hill (2.70 ERA) was excellent before hurting his shoulder in early May. Jason Bergmann is just 1-5 in 11 starts despite a 3.47 ERA. Shockingly, John Patterson (7.18 ERA in seven starts) and Jason Simontacchi (6.11 ERA) didn’t work out for the Nats. The bullpen (3.95 ERA) has actually been pretty good. Chad Cordero (3.00 ERA) looks like he might get traded before the deadline (although, with this guy at the helm, who knows). But Cordero’s peripherals aren’t very promising, even having everything going for him (the league, the home park) - I doubt he’ll be very effective if traded to an AL club.
Outlook: It’s still the Mets’ division they lose, especially as guys get back from injuries (although they can’t expect much from Pedro). The Braves could make a fun if Andruw wakes up and they solidify the back end of their rotation (easier said than done). BP has the Mets winning the East about 2/3 of the time, which seems about right. There’s only about a 1 in 4 chance that the WC comes from the East this year, which is bad news for the Braves, and especially for the Phillies, who are going to have a tough time overtaking both New York and Atlanta.
First half MVP: Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee (.284/376/.620). Best hitter in the division on the first place team- this wasn’t a hard choice. As for all the announcers and such trying to make a cute little story out of Cecil and Prince- do some research, it’s not a happy story.
First Half Cy Young: Ian Snell, Pittsburgh (7-5, 2.93). How did Freddy Sanchez, with his .326 OBP and no power, make the team as the Pirates representative over Snell and Gorzelanny?
First Half Surprise (Player): Hunter Pence, CF, Houston (275 AB, .342/.367/.589, 23 2B). Despite not getting called up until April 28th, the 24-year old Pence is 13th in the NL in VORP and already has six triples.
First Half Surprise (Team): Everybody has kind of fallen into place. I guess it would have to be the Brewers, but hasn’t everyone been on their bandwagon since the second half of last year?
Led by Prince, the Brewers are second in the NL in runs per game at 4.89. Ryan Braun (.350/.391/.663) has been a slight upgrade over the third base platoon of Counsell and Graffanino (combined VORP: -1.4), I would say. After hitting 15 HR in his first 209 PA, J.J. Hardy has cooled off (how could he not), hitting just three in his last 146 PA. Corey Hart has been very much under the radar, but has an impressive .298/.368/.508 line, along with 16 stolen bases (3 CS).
Milwaukee’s bullpen (3.50 ERA) has been a strength. Everybody knows about Turnbow (3.49 ERA, 11.1 K/9) and Cordero (2.86 ERA, 12.7 K/9), but Carlos Villanueva (60.3 IP, 2.83 ERA) has actually been their best reliever. Ben Sheets (3.41 ERA) has been solid at the top of the rotation, despite less strikeouts (6.75 K/9) than usual. The rest of the Brewers’ rotation has been very average, with all four other starters (Bush, Vargas, Suppan, Capuano) having ERAs between 4.52 and 5.00. It will be interesting to see how Gallardo fares in the second half- his resume is pretty impressive, and his first three starts (2.79 ERA, 19 K in 19.1 IP) weren’t bad either.
The Cubs’ expected W-L (based on RS and RA) is just 1.5 games behind the Brewers’. Unfortunately, Pythagorean record isn’t used to pick which teams play in October. But that shows just how close these two teams are, and that this race should come down to the last week of the season. After a rough April (18 games, .700 OPS), Alfonso Soriano has rebounded to lead the Cubs in VORP with a .309/.352/.532 line. Derrek Lee is always on base (.411 OBP), although his fluke 2005 season is not how we should think of him in terms of power (.662 SLG in ’05, .499 career SLG). Jacque Jones (.233/.294/.335) needs to be traded or released.
Chicago’s pitching is fifth in the NL, and the credit should be split evenly with the starters (3.94 ERA) and bullpen (3.96 ERA). After looking unhittable in his first three starts (3-0, 0.41), Rich Hill has been inconsistent. If he could just stop hitters from going deep (1.6 HR/9), the rest of his numbers are pretty good. Both of their big winter additions to the rotation, Lilly and Marquis, have ERAs of 3.67. Looking at their peripherals, it seems like Lilly had a better chance of sustaining his performance. Carlos Marmol (28 IP, 40 K, 0.96 ERA) has been filthy out of the pen. Scott Eyre (30 IP, 43 H, 21 BB, 6.60 ERA) has not.
Although apparently not good enough to get into the game on Tuesday, and despite having not homered since June 14, Albert Pujols does have a .927 OPS. David Eckstein was nailing his 75th percentile PECOTA prediction before going down with back spasms a month ago. Unfortunately, that means a .385 SLG. Aaron Miles has filled in admirably (.375 OBP since Eckstein got hurt, although the .349 SLG isn’t pretty). Jim Edmonds hasn’t played since hurting his back on June 14, and when he was “healthy’, it wasn’t pretty (.238/.308/.394). His OBP and SLG have both decreased each year since 2004. Scott Rolen has 4 HR in 296 PA.
The Cardinals’ hitting (11th in the league) actually isn’t their biggest problem. Their starters have a 5.31 ERA. This will happen when Anthony Reyes (0-10, 6.40) and Kip Wells (3-11, 5.92) start 27 games over a three month span. Looking ahead, a rotation of Thompson, Wainwright, Maroth, Looper, Wellemeyer should be able to cut that starters’ ERA down by about half a run. In the bullpen, Isringhausen (1.53 ERA) has been good, as has Ryan Franklin (1.23 ERA). Although not striking anyone out (3.5 K/9), Franklin has thrived because of his control (0.8 BB/9) and ability to keep the ball in the park (44 IP, 2 HR).
It’s amazing- the Pirates lineup has been pretty much healthy (all four infielders and Bay have played at least 77 games each), yet they’re 14th in the NL in runs. So things have basically going according to plan, it’s just that the plan wasn’t very good. One thing they couldn’t have foreseen is Jason Bay being a league average hitter for three months (134 career OPS+, 101 this year). On the other hand, Jack Wilson (.259/.317/.364) has been replacement level offensively for 2.5 years now. Chris Duffy (.249/.313/.357) plays at that same level, although he’s only been at it for about 350 ABs.
I am going to be less negative about the Pirates’ rotation, because there are actually signs of hope- three of them, in fact. Tom Gorzelanny (119 IP, 3.10 ERA) has built on his success in 2006 (if you can call 2-5, 3.79 “success”- with the Pirates, I think you can). Ian Snell has decreased his walk rate to 2.0 BB/9, and has been one of the elite pitchers in the NL (7-5, 2.93). And in the pen, 23-year old Matt Capps has been great (49.1 IP, 2 HR, 10 BB, 2.37 ERA). Unfortunately, there are also plenty of issues with the Pirates’ staff, which ranks just ninth in the NL in ERA. Zach Duke (3-7, 4.79, 3.2 K/9) continues to display how much of a fluke his 2005 was, and, apparently, Tony Armas (38.1 IP, 9 HR, 20 BB, 8.69 ERA) is not the answer. Compounding these problems (and making Gorzelanny and Snell’s performances that much more impressive) is the fact that, as always, the Pirates can’t catch the ball (28th in Defensive Efficency).
The Astros are right around league average at 4.52 R/G. That may not seem particularly impressive, but considering they play Adam Everett (.228/.275/.316, -7.0 VORP), Morgan Ensberg (.210/.304/.359), Craig Biggio (.259/.302/.400; there’s a joke to be made about how even his 3000th hit ended up being an out, but I wouldn’t dare) and Brad Ausmus (.249/.329/.339) on an everyday basis, it kind of is. Since they are losing so much with these four guys at the plate, I expected them to be somewhat high in BP’s fielding rankings. They’re 22nd. Oh well.
Pence is the main reason the offense has been respectable, along with Carlos Lee (.515 SLG), who has been slightly above his career average at age 31. Berkman is having a down year at that same age, with a SLG (.450) that’s over 100 points below his career average (.558).
Despite losing the $28MM man and his trusty sidekick, the Astros’ rotation isn’t bad. They were hurt by having to start Matt Albers (seven starts, 5.71 ERA) for almost two months, as Jason Jennings only made three starts before June. But it seems like a rotation of Oswalt, Rodriguez, Sampson, Jennings, and Williams should be good for an ERA just slightly north of 4.00. The traditionally strong bullpen has struggled to a 5.22 ERA. Lidge, Qualls, Wheeler, and Trevor Miller all strike out more than a guy per inning, but Wheeler and Qualls can’t keep the ball in the yard (1.43 and 1.69 HR/9, respectively), and Miller (6.75 BB/9) can’t throw strikes.
Although the Reds are fifth in the NL at 4.75 runs per game, their team OPS+ (which is adjusted for home field) is just 99. If they played in an average park, they’d probably average about 4.45 R/G, which would be just 10th in the league. Griffey (.286/.390/.568) is on pace for his best year since 2000. People will never shut up about Adam Dunn’s strikeouts, but we walks a ton, and the guy can hit (.258/.356/.549, 24 HR). Here’s a pretty good piece written by Josh Hamilton himself; amazing what that guy did to himself, and is able to come back and hit .279/.371/.543 for three months. David Ross’ 231 PAs at .196/.251/.407 have not helped matters.
What’s interesting to me is that on the surface, it seems like the Reds’ pitching is terrible and their offense is pretty decent. But their park skews everything. In reality, their 96 ERA+ ranks 10th in the NL, and their offense is slightly below average, with that 99 OPS+. Add being ranked 27th in defensive efficiency to that profile, and you get a .409 winning percentage. When people want to hate on Dunn they should simply bitch about his defense. According to UZR, he has cost the Reds 11 runs per year in the field since 2003. Aaron Harang (9-2, 3.67) has been the lone bright spot in the rotation. Homer Bailey is obviously extremely talented, and he just turned 21, but a 15-21 K/BB ratio in six starts just isn’t getting it done.
Outlook: According to PECOTA, of the 22 teams that would miss the playoffs if the season ended today, the Cubs have the best shot of making the playoffs if the season ended September 30th (it does), at 40%. This is a two team race- the Cardinals are given about a 2.5% chance of sneaking in, but I can’t see that, and the other three teams are pretty much hopeless. Interestingly, BP has both the average WC winner and the Brewers at 90 wins, so at least the Cubs have something to shoot for.
First Half MVP: Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco (.295/.512/.589). It would be unreasonable to give it to anyone else (he’s 66 points ahead of anyone else in baseball in OBP), but he kind of ruins this whole category, so…
First Half MVP (People who have never been accused by a well-known blogger of cheating on their wife, their taxes, and the game category): Russ Martin, C, Los Angeles (.306/.374/.492, 16 SB, 3 CS). Much better.
First Half Surprise (Player): Eric Byrnes, LF/CF/RF, Arizona (.306/.363/.496, 17 SB, 6 CS). Significantly above his established averages in all three rate stats. Although that’s not taking into account the disaster that was Tuesday night.
First Half Surprise (Team): San Francisco. The preseason Vegas over/under for wins by the Giants was 80.5. They’re on pace to go 72-90.
San Diego’s offense is interesting. They are just 12th in the NL in runs per game, but that’s not really a fair assessment, considering how hard to score it is at Petco- about 7% harder than average. They are actually fifth in the NL in R/G on the road, although their OPS+ is only 96, suggesting that they are not the fifth best offense in the league. In reality, they are probably the 9th or 10th best offense in the league. They are led by Adrian Gonzalez, whose .264/.339/.469 line seems very pedestrian before BP translates. Taking Petco into account, that line is the equivalent of .281/.359/.514. Marcus Giles’ OBP has declined each year since 2003, down to this year’s career low of .312.
The Padres’ pitching is unbelievable. Their 130 ERA+ is 11 points higher than any other team in baseball (Boston is second). As a team, they have 12 shutouts- the Mets are second in the AL with seven. Chris Young (8-3, 2.00, 103.2 IP, 3 HR) is making this trade look more insane every time he takes the mound. Jake Peavy (9-3, 2.19, 119 IP, 125 K) is probably the best RHP in baseball right now. All five starters have VORPs over 10.0.
Amazingly, the bullpen is even better than the rotation, with a 2.38 ERA. Seven relievers have thrown over 20 innings for the Padres; Cla Merideth has the highest ERA among that group at 3.43. Kevin Cameron (29.1 IP, 1 R), Heath Bell (50.2 IP, 1 HR, 14 BB, 53 K, 1.78 ERA), Scott Linebrink (2.51 ERA) and Trevor Hoffman (1.91 ERA) have all been outstanding.
The Dodgers’ offense is 10th in the NL at 4.49 R/G. They’re actually third in the NL in OBP (.340), but just 11th in SLG (.395). Luis Gonzalez (.294/.384/.471) is having his best season since 2003. But the key to this offense is the young guys. Besides the obvious (Martin), Matt Kemp (age: 22) has been tearing it up (.343/.395/.500) since returning from a shoulder injury on June 8. James Loney (age: 23) has hit .385/.442/.603 since making his debut two days after Kemp returned. Not surprisingly, LA has averaged 4.79 R/G over the last month after scoring 4.35 R/G over their first 60 games.
The Dodgers are second in the NL in ERA at 3.83. Brad Penny (10-1, 2.39) had another outstanding first half, although he did the same thing last year, and his numbers after the break (6-7, 6.25) weren’t pretty. Chad Billingsley (5-0, 3.62, 54.2 IP, 58) has been up and down since being moved to the rotation, but could be poise for a big first half. The bullpen (3.39 ERA) has been fantastic, led by Takashi Saito (36.2 IP, 4 BB, 47 K, 1.47 ERA) and Jonathan Broxton (45 IP, 0 HR, 52 K, 2.80 ERA).
The Diamondbacks are 15th in the NL in both R/G (4.12) and OPS+ (89). Byrnes and Orlando Hudson are not to be blamed for this. But Carlos Quentin (.210/.299/350 before being sent down) and Stephen Drew (.242/.304/.363) are. (And apparently, hitting coach Kevin Seitzer is, he has been fired.) This may be stating the obvious, but if the disappointing seasons of Quentin and Drew and the recent breakouts of Kemp and Loney were reversed, the standings would look a lot different. Makes you wonder if Arizona could be a surprise team in the second half with a little more contribution from their younger players.
Arizona’s strength is their pitching (4.00 ERA, 6th in the NL), which seems to be the theme in this division. Brandon Webb (131 IP, 9 HR, 112 K) is having another fantastic season, and other than eight Edgar Gonzalez starts, nobody in the rotation has been below replacement level. The bullpen (3.72 ERA) has been very good. Tony Pena (2.17 ERA) has come out of nowhere, Brandon Lyon (42 IP, 0 HR, 2.36 ERA) is having his best season to date, and Jose Valverde (35 IP, 38 K, 2.83 ERA) has rebounded from a rough 2006.
Colorado is third in the NL in R/G at 4.86, but obviously that doesn’t tell the whole story. This year, Coors is the anti-Petco (or Petco is the anti-Coors, I guess), as it is 7% easier to hit in Colorado than average. Their OPS+ is 104, which is sixth in the league. Matt Holliday (.341/.392/.573) is having an MVP-caliber season. Despite seeing his SLG decline for the fifth consecutive year (.630 in ’03, .473 this year), Todd Helton still gets on base enough (44% of the time) to still be a productive hitter. Brad Hawpe (.310/.394/.555) is experiencing something of a breakout season.
The Rockies’ ERA+ of 98 ninth in the NL. Jeff Francis (2.63 BB/9, 3.87 ERA) continues to improve. On the other side of the spectrum, Josh Fogg (5.36 ERA) has never been very good. In the pen, Manuel Corpas (2.51 ERA) and Jeremy Affeldt (36 IP, 0 HR, 2.50 ERA) have played important roles.
When Barry Bonds gets suspended for life by Selig, or retires, or ends his career in whatever capacity, the Giants offense is going to be really, really bad. Even with Bonds (10.9 RC/27) playing a different game than anyone else, the Giants are just 13th in the NL in R/G. Their second best offensive player has been Ryan Klesko (.295/.385/.477) who, considering his position, hasn’t really been all that good. The problem has been the old guys (not that there are any young guys in this lineup); Omar Vizquel (.235/.284/.295), Pedro Feliz (.234/.270/.405) and Rich Aurilia (.251/.293/.372) have all been below replacement level.
The Giants are fourth in the NL with a 3.93 ERA, and their 109 ERA+ ranks fifth. According to BP, Matt Cain has been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, as despite his ERA (3.53) and expected record (7-5), he is 3-9. I don’t know if “luck” is the right word- I think this phenomenon can probably be explained by Brian Sabean’s confounding obsession with old hitters. With Cain, Noah Lowry (9-6, 3.35), and of course rookie phenom Tim Lincecum (72 IP, 79 K, turned 23 last month), the Giants have an outstanding young core in the rotation, which is good, because the average age of their hitters is 33.5. The bullpen (3.61 ERA) has actually been better than the starters, with Vinny Chulk (2.65 ERA) leading the way.
Outlook: It looks like the Padres and Dodgers will probably be battling it out for the division title in late September, with the team that finishes second probably ending up as the Wild Card. With the way Loney and Kemp have come on over the last month, I think the Dodgers could make a serious run in the second half. And if the Diamondbacks’ young bats turn it around, they’re only 3.5 games behind the Padres right now.
All stats taken from Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference. I would like to point out how fantastic B-R’s new feature on their game log pages is, where you can automatically sum any arbitrary portion of the season that you choose by simply highlighting the appropriate games.
Thanks to Awful Announcing for linking this way during their fantastic ASG pseudo- live-blog Tuesday night.
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