Futures Watch: Week 22 (NL West Edition)

Why the "NL West Edition"? Because every single good line this week involves the NL West. Here we go.

World Series Futures

At both SportsBetting and Sports Interaction, the Padres are 18:1 to win the World Series. This made sense a week ago, when they had a 41% chance of making the playoffs. It does not make sense this week, as they are up to 71%.

Average return on investment: 59%

SportsBetting also has the Dodgers at 40:1, while they best odds they have at any other site are 25:1. Again, eight days ago, when the Dodgers were at 16%, this was a reasonable line, but today, with them up to 29% after having won 6 of 8, it is not.

Average return on investment: 54%

Odds to Win: Division

This makes no sense. At SportsBetting, the Padres are 8:5 to win the NL West. That means they would have to have a 39% chance of winning to make this a worthwhile bet. Conveniently, they are around 53%.

Average return on investment: 36%

Odds to Win: Wild Card

As I noted a few days ago at Epic Carnival, the Wild Card odds at SportsBetting continue to be somewhat insane. The Diamondbacks, who now lead the Wild Card race, have higher odds than Atlanta, LA, SD, Philly, and Colorado: Arizona is 9:1. They have a 22% chance of winning the WC; this is pretty easily the best line there is right now.

Average return on investment: 120%

NL Cy Young Odds

Look here. Jake Peavy is 15-5 with a 2.18 ERA and 197 strikeouts on a first place team. There is very little doubt in my mind that he is going to win this award. This number is pretty much pulled out of nowhere, but I'm going to go with 80%.

His 3:2 odds dictate a 40% chance of winning the award.

Average return on investment: 100%

UPDATE: (Sorry, forgot to include this originally, it even follows the theme.)

Possible 2007 World Series Matchups

Most of these lines are terrible, but both the Indians and Padres are (I think) undervalued by SportsBetting. They have the Indians and Padres playing each other on the WS at 45:1. I have it at about 30:1.

Average return on investment: 49%

BTW, unrelated, but Bodog is having some kind of problem- a "dispute over the ownership of the Bodog.com domain name", and their new site is, well, newbodog.