"The only thing that matters is winning football games."-Michael Vick, January 2005
You probably thought there was a good chance you'd never be able to bet on Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons again. Turns out, you were only half right.
The wonderful people at BetUS.com, because they are awesome, have posted odds on what will end up happening to Michael Vick (the irony of odds being posted on a scandal potentially involving a gambling ring...it's overwhelming, really).
They have five different props- what his suspension from Goodell will be, how much jail time he'll be sentenced to, how much he'll be fined, what random stuff he'll do before the end of 2010, and if he'll ever play again. I feel it is my civic duty to break down these lines, so thats what I shall do.
(Note: For each table, the first column is the listed odds, and the second column is the real chance those odds imply for that event happening.)
Will M Vick ever throw another pass as an NFL QB?
Talk about a long term bet! If you wager on "No", when do you get paid out- when he dies? I e-mailed BetUS about this, hopefully they'll get back to me. Update: I did some investigative reporting and called BetUS. This was a struggle, as the guy barely spoke English (they're based in Costa Rica). Apparently, the "No" bet would pay out 10 years from now. Good to know! Update 2: Reader Dustin writes:
"For reference .... If you saved a $100 for 10 years @ a 5% interest rate you would get a payback of 3 to 5. If you won the bet on Vick never passing again you would get 6 to 5.
Seems like a long wait for not much payback."
Seriously though, I thought this prop was really interesting. The oddsmakers think it's 50-50 that Vick throws another pass in the NFL. The wording is relevant here- it's "throw another pass", not "play another down"- as The Big Lead points out, maybe it would be best for him to come back as a DB or something.
If I had to guess, I would go with no- between the jail time, the eventual suspension, his skills eroding, and the battle against public perception, I don't see Vick making it all the way back.
How long will the NFL suspend Michael Vick for?
Chris Mortensen writes:
"League sources told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that Goodell likely will suspend Vick indefinitely and that a final decision on Vick's suspension will be made after his legal case is resolved."
Unfortunately, Chris, that's not terribly helpful, as there is no money to be won off "Indefinitely". That does seem to be the obvious choice though- Goodell has to do something, and he really can't do anything meaningful until he knows when Vick is going to be getting out of jail, really.
How much Jail time will M Vick be sentenced to?
* Note: Prop is for sentence time not served time. Prop is for initial sentenced time any further appeals do not count.First off, I like the completely arbitrary capitalization of "Jail".
ESPN's Lester Munson has an interesting article about the recent happenings in the case. Here's the relevant quote:
"[The judge] uses the word 'maximum' more often than he uses the words 'minimum' or 'probation.' If Vick cannot convince Hudson that he can be a good citizen, Vick will be doing 24 months or more."
Finally, someone with some helpful anlysis! If you're morbid enough to bet on this, it seems like 19-30 months at 2:1 is probably a good call. Although the "prosecutors will recommend a sentence of a year to 18 months," given the judge's reputation, it seems like two years is pretty realistic.
How much will M Vick be fined?
This is probably the least interesting prop, since I really can't get too worked up about a guy who signed a $130MM contract getting fined $250K. But if I had to pick one, I'd go with $200K-$250K at 2:1.
What is in store for Michael Vick before 12/31/10?
There are no percentages for this one because the events aren't mutually exclusive- in theory, Vick could open a strip joint with Pacman and run [for] public office.
Although the PETA thing is probably a joke, I feel like Vick would be all for that (if only to improve his image), although PETA clearly wouldn't be very accomodating. I guess there's really nothing stopping him from opening an animal shelter, so that may not be a bad bet.
The one thing that does seem very realistic is a year in the CFL. Say Vick spends the '07 and '08 seasons in jail, then is suspended for '09. I would think he would want to do something for that third season- why not the CFL, Ricky-style?
Update: Anon makes a very good point in the comments; you can no longer play in the CFL during an NFL suspension. For proof, here's an interview with CFL comissioner Mark Cohon!
Photos taken from the geniuses at The Onion, and here.
Previously on Vegas Watch: Erik Bedard Profile
4 comments:
He won't play in the CFL if he's suspended by the NFL. The CFL has new rules prohibiting the signing of suspended NFL players. This was done just after the Ricky Williams signing.
Those last set of odds are ridiculous, except for the CFL and possibly the animal shelter. How do they define action movie star?
I support a hollywood action star: he could do a remake of the 1975 classic, "Dog Day Afternoon".
Let's focus on the word JAIL. Anybody who thinks this guy is gonna get actual time behind bars is nuts. He wouldn't have accepted a plea bargin that included time. Now he'll turn on his fellow dog fight buddies who aren't millionaires and who WILL do time. You can take a boy out of the hood, but you can't take the hood out of the boy. Maybe he just wanted to outdo his brother.
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