I doubt there are many people who would have guessed that Hanley Ramirez leads all of baseball in VORP. Personally, I probably would have guessed A-Rod, Magglio, Miguel Cabrera, or Prince Fielder. In reality, Hanley Ramirez is first, with a VORP of 67.2 through Saturday's games.
There are three reasons for this- Hanley Ramirez is an absurdly talented hitter, he plays shortstop, and VORP ignores how well you play your position, only adjusting for what position you play. Here's a closer look at the Marlins' shorstop.
16-year old Hanley Ramirez was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Boston Red Sox on July 20, 2000.
Hanley made his professional baseball debut at the age of 17 in 2001 with the DSL Red Sox (Rookie) in 2001. In 197 ABs he hit .345 with 5 HRs, 18 2Bs and 13 SB. He also showed good plate discipline (especially consideirng his age), with 15 BB and 22 K. He was named the 2001 DSL Red Sox Player of the Year
Starting the season with the GCL Red Sox (Rookie) in 2002, he hit .341/.402/.555 in 164 ABs. He exhibited even better plate discipline, with more BB (16) than K (15). This earned him a promotion to Lowell (low A), where he continued to rake, with a line of .371/.400/.536. This earned him the honor of Lowell Spinners Player of the Year, despite the fact he played only 22 games for the team (which doesn't make much sense, but good for him). Although thriving at the plate, Hanley struggled in the field, making a total of 27 errors in 62 games at SS.
Hanley was very much on the prospect radar after his breakout 2002 season, as Baseball America had him listed as Boston's #1 prospect for 2003. They also ranked him as the 19th best prospect in all of baseball.
2003 was a rough year for Hanley, as he hit only .275/.327/.403 in 422 ABs with August (A). He also continued to struggle in the field, making 36 errors in 102 games. He did begin to showcase his excellent speed, swiping 36 bases in 49 attempts. Despite his struggles he was still Boston's #1 prospect entering 2004, although he dropped to 39th in Baseball America's overall rankings.
Ramirez rebounded with Sarasota (high A) in 2004, hitting .310/.364/.389 in 239 ABs, making the FSL All-Star team, and evenually being named Sarasota's Player of the Year. This earned him a promotion to Portland (AA), where his power returned, hitting .310/.360/.512 in 129 ABs- a pretty impressive line, considering he was just 20 years old. Hanley also broke his wrist in 2004, missing seven weeks of action. When healthy, it was a good year for Hanley all around, as he made 19 errors in 93 games with Sarasota and Portland.
Not surprisingly, Hanley's overall Baseball America ranking was back up to 10th going into the 2005 season, and he remained Boston's top prospect. But Hanley struggled with Portland (AA), hitting .271/.335/.385. It seemed like the power he displayed with Portland after his 2004 callup may have been a fluke, as his SLG went right back to the level it was in Sarasota. There were some bright spots for Ramirez in 2004, as he continued to steal bases (26 in 39 attempts), was named to the Futures Game, and again cut down on his errors, albeit only slightly (19 in 115 games).
But the notable aspect of 2005 for Hanley did not come on the field. On November 24 he was traded to the Florida Marlins, as part of a package that sent Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston.
After his 2005 struggles, he had dropped down to 30th in Baseball America's top 100. These struggles, however, did not seem to phase the Marlins, as he began the year with the big club as their starting shorstop. This move was met by some skepticism, which can be found in the 2006 edition of Baseball Prospectus: "There`s no indication that he is ready for the major leagues, but the Marlins are apparently going to let him a try."
Well, the Marlins were right on this one. He didn't get off to a great start, hitting .268/.334/.410 before the All-Star break, although he was successful in 26 of 31 SB attempts over that period. This is probably about what BP had in mind for him (maybe a little better actually), and with good reason- adjusting to major league pitching as a 22-year old who had never even played in AAA before is a tough task.
But after the break, Hanley decided he no longer cared about logic, or reasonable expectations, he was just going to rake. We know this, because he put together a line of .319/.373/.558, vaulting to the NL Rookie of the Year award. He also doubled his home run rate, from one every 61 PAs to one ever 30. At this point, it became very clear that the sky was the limit.
Hanley's BP Most Comparable Players gave us a pretty good idea of what we are dealing with here, as numbers 2, 3, and 4 were Ryne Sandberg, Paul Molitor, and Barry Larkin, respectively (#1 was Mariano Duncan). Here is what BP expected of him for 2007 (90% is their 90th percentile projection):
Amazingly, he has improved even on his 2006 post-ASB numbers, with his current line of .342/.395/.572. He has done this mostly by increasing his HR rate, and decreasing his strikeout rate. The circumstances of these changes are very interesting.
He has gone from homering in 2.4% of his plate appearances in 2006 to 4.1% this year. Most of this has come against righties, as his HR% vs RHP has jumped from 2.1% to 3.9%. It would make sense that he is maturing a little later against righties, as he used to be a switch hitter.
But his improvement has not only come against RHP. Overall, his K% has decreased from 18.3% to 14.2%. Against lefties, however, the decrease has been even more dramatic, going from 16.0% to just 9.4%.
A third area where he has improved in 2007 is after falling behind in the count. In 2006, he hit .258/.290/.430 after falling behind 0-1. But this year he has improved that to .330/.356/.575, amazingly hitting a HR in 4.0% of those plate appearances.
Fielding
Unfortunately, Hanley has yet to see improvement in his fielding. By any metric, he is one if the worst fielding SS in baseball. In 2006, according to UZR, he cost the Marlins 19 runs in the field. He was also last among NL SS in THT's RZR.
In 2007 it's been more of the same. John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, had him as the worst defender in all of baseball through mid-July. UZR had him as 14 runs below average through July 9, behind only Jeff Kent and Jhonny Peralta. And he is once again last in THT's RZR.
Although fielding is obviously a weakness for Hanley, he doesn't turn 24 until two days before Christmas, and can continue to improve. And despite his fielding issues, he is tied for the NL lead in Win Shares. As for his hitting, he could improve his walk rate, and even more power may develop. But if he continued with a 156 OPS+ for the next five years, I don't think the Marlins would complain. And his baserunning? Well, he's stolen 88 since the beginning of 2006, while being caught only 25 times.
Hanley Ramirez is already, at the age of 23, one of the premier players in baseball, and it's too bad it will probably take him leaving South Florida for most people to notice
Photos taken from Scout.com, Fox Sports and MLB.com (twice), and here. Stats taken from Baseball Reference, The Hardball Times, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, The Baseball Cube, SoxProspects, Baseball America.
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