Updated Odds for MLB Awards

BetUS.com posted odds for the four major awards in each league this morning- here's a look at where they may have screwed up.

AL MVP: A-Rod is -450, Vlad and Magglio are each +450, and that's really all you need to know.

I'm not so sure Rodriguez should be such a huge favorite. He does have 39 home runs, to Ordonez's 22. But that's his only big advantage. Thanks to the fact he's hitting .407 w/RISP, Magglio is only 6 RBIs back, despite the huge HR deficit. And, Magglio's BA is 50 points higher. Assuming the Yankees make the playoffs, I think A-Rod probably wins the award, but Magglio should probably be +300, even +250.

AL Cy Young: Apparently they were trashed while posting these odds. Santana is +140, Sabathia is +275, Haren is +350, Lackey +1000; Bedard and Beckett both aren't individually listed, but the Field is +350.

Going on the assumption that they're just being cautions after their earlier screw up, I can understand Johan being the favorite. He's certainly doesn't have the best chance at the award, however, as, despite his 3.02 ERA, he's only 12-9. I don't entirely understand Sabathia at +275 either; he's one behind the leaders in wins, and his ERA (3.48) is significantly below the top two contenders.

According to Cy Young Predictor, two guys have moved slightly ahead of the pack- John Lackey and Dan Haren. The thing Lackey has going for him is his 15 wins (Haren has 13); the most impressive part of Haren's resume is his 2.53 ERA (Lackey's is 3.07). Those two things probably cancel each other out, and at the moment we have pretty much a dead heat.

Of course, the odds completely fail to reflect this, as Haren is +350, and Lackey is listed as somewhat of a longshot at 10:1. Draw your own conclusions. The only thing that would scare me about Lackey is that his next two starts (@BOS on Friday, vs NYY on Wednesday) could get messy, but if he survives that, he's a great call at 10:1.

It should also be noted that the "Field" at +350 isn't a bad choice, as Beckett (15-5, 3.24), Bedard (12-4, 2.98, 207 K!), and Carmona (14-7, 3.16) would all fall under that category. (If Jamie Walker and Danys Baez weren't terrible, Bedard would be a more serious candidate with 13 wins.)

AL Rookie of the Year: Matsuzaka is -120, Okajima +300, Delmon Young +400, Guthrie +700, Pedroia +850.

I really can't see anyone except Matsuzka taking this one. Young is only at .293/9/64, while mostly playing a power position (RF). Guthrie only has 7 wins, which the voters won't stand for. Pedroia is having a great year, but I doubt the leaders understand how valuable it is to have a second baseman with a .397 OBP.

If Hideki Okajima (57 IP, 34 H, 13 BB, 47 K, 1.26 ERA) was pitching the ninth inning every night, I think he'd win the award. He's not, however. And no reliever with less than 15 saves has ever won the award. It could happen, and it probably would eventually, if not for Matsuaka.

Daisuke Matsuaka is 13-9 with a 3.79 ERA, having struck out 164 hitters in 164 IP. He also got a huge head start before he even threw a pitch in this country. A -120 line would indicate he has a 55% chance of winning the ROY; I think it's probably more like 85%.

NL MVP: Prince is +300, Utley is +350, Carlos Lee is +450, Griffey and Reyes are each +1000, and get this: the "Field" is listed as even money.

The fact they listed the field as even shows they have no clue who's taking home this award. And, honestly, neither do I. I was thinking of dedicating a post to the NL MVP race next week, and think I'll just stick to that plan.

NL Cy Young: Favorites are clearly Peavy (+120) and Penny (+200). Chris Young is +450, Sheets and Maine are +800, and the "Field" is +500.

CYP tells us that Peavy and Penny should be favorites, as they 2-3 in the NL in ERA, and are also up there in wins (Penny is tied for the lead with 14, Peavy has 13). Young, Sheets and Maine aren't viable candidates, as Young (9 wins) and Sheets (hasn't pitched since July 14) both have major faults, and Maine has been solid but 13-7, 3.59 can't compete with the realistic contenders.

So we're left with three options- Peavy, Penny, or the Field. I agree with BetUS that Peavy is the favorite, as he's already got the ERA lead, the voters don't really care about a difference of one win, and his team has a better chance to make the playoffs. I do think "Field" at 5:1 as interesting, as Hudson (14-5, 3.02), Webb (12-8, 2.77), and Oswalt (13-6, 3.32) are 3, 4, and 5 in the Cy Young Predictor standings, respectively.

NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun is -270, and everybody else is playing for second, so who cares.

If you're interested in making an investment that will pay at a 37% profit two months from now, the Braun line is for you. Bruan's MSM line (.350/23/60 in 294 AB) is impressive enough, but it is actually trumped by his SABR line (.350/.394/.677). Pence (.330/12/45) is scheduled to start a rehab on Sunday, but he's not catching up.

Pictures taken from here, here, and here. Stats taken from Baseball Reference.