Sunday, August 19, 2007

When Statistics Go Wrong

Note: I am a huge Indians fan. Usually I try to be unbiased. Not in this post.

As I write this, the Indians and Devil Rays are in the top of the 11th. It's been an up and down game, as the Indians had a 2-0 lead, but Sabathia gave up solo homers in the fourth and seventh.

The game was tied at 2 after 9, but the Indians scored in the top of the 10th, on a Victor Martinez sac fly.

Now, I understand that Joe Borowski is the Indians' closer. I'm not happy about this, and I don't understand why, as Borowski is clearly their third best reliever. When Borowski comes into the game in the ninth (or, in this case, the tenth), I am always terrified, but I have gotten somewhat used to this, as I felt the same when when Bob Wickman came in. He has had his problems (especially this game, shown in the picture on the right), but coming into today he did have a 1.11 WPA.

What I don't understand is the insistence on keeping Borowski in no matter what until he gives up the lead. The Indians don't play on Monday, and happen to have lefty Rafael Perez in their bullpen. Perez, although not a household name, has been tremendous this year, with a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings.

So you have lefty Carl Crawford up, two outs, and the tying run in scoring position. Perez has held lefties to a .100/.154/.150 line this year; lefties are hitting .280/.327/.350 against Borowski, and he's clearly struggling in the inning. If this kind of situation comes up in the seventh or eighth inning, there's no question- you bring in the lefty. But when there is a *save* on the line, and your *closer* is in the game, the situation is managed differently.

Of course, the Indians left Borowski in, and Crawford tied the game. If there is an argument that leaving Borowski in gives the Indians a better chance to win the game, I'd love to hear it. I don't think there is though; it's just a team allowing a stupid statistic to dictate how the game is managed.

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