I have spent far too much time over the last few months trying to figure out who’s going to win the NL MVP. I’ve written about it plenty on this site, even conducted voting over at EC, and (hopefully) will have an article related to this topic that will run at The Hardball Times in the near future.That being said, I think I’ve figured it out.
The thing about this race that makes it so difficult to handicap is that every player has significant flaws. Let’s go down the NL OPS leaders and see why each player isn’t going to win MVP.
1. Barry Bonds, 1.058
This is an article in itself but I’ll just say terrible team, bad fielder, hasn’t played enough games, and most people probably don’t realize how valuable he continues to be.
T-2. Chipper Jones, .992
Missed 20 games in May/June which contributes to weak counting stats (22 HR, 79 BI), excels in areas that aren’t fully appreciated by voters (67 walks, 35 doubles), probably won’t make
playoffs.T-2. Chase Utley, .992
Maybe the best all-around player in the NL, but missed almost the entire month of August; outstanding in areas ignored by voters (42 doubles, great defensively).
4. Prince Fielder, .986
Below average defense at a power position, team (although in the race) is painfully mediocre, has been the second best hitter on his team since this happened.
5. Miguel Cabrera, .980
On a bad team that nobody pays attention to, not good defensively, more publicity about weight than hitting prowess.
6. Albert Pujols, .975
Has a shot if the Cardinals sneak into playoffs, but if he didn’t win last year, how would he this year?
7. Matt Holliday, .973
A hitter in Coors would need more dominant numbers to win, team is unlikely to make the playoffs.
8. Ryan Howard, .958
*Fourth* highest VORP on team (Utley, Rollins, Rowand), only hitting .272, bad defensively, team may not make playoffs.
9. Hanley Ramirez, .951
Same reasons as #5 (except for the weight issues).
10. David Wright, .946
David Wright has no flaws.
After going 3/5 with a 2-R HR on Monday, Wright is hitting .320 with 26 homers, 91 RBIs, 30 stolen bases, 80 walks, and 35 doubles. He also is fantastic defensively, and his team has a comfortable lead in their division.
He’s first in the NL in Win Shares, and if you included fielding stats in VORP, he’d be leading in that also.
So why the minimal hype? Well, I think it’s because Wright isn’t in the top five in the NL in BA, HR, RBI, SB. However, he’s in the top 10 in each of those categories.
So here I was, convinced that Wright both deserved to win the MVP and had a good chance of
winning it. There is only one problem with this: Jake Peavy.Through his first 20 starts, Peavy was having a very good season- 9-5, 2.47 ERA, 136 Ks in 131 IP. His last eight starts though? 7-0, 1.17 ERA, 53.2 IP, 28 H(!), 17 BB, 70 K. The league has a .150/.223/.251 line against him over that time. He’s pretty much got the Cy Young locked up.
But what about the MVP? Peavy is destroying Wright in WPA (4.82-3.58 through Sunday), but that doesn’t take Wright’s fielding into consideration. VORP is closer (70.4-65.0), and Wright would be ahead of Peavy in that category after you added in fielding.
At this point, I think Wright has to be considered the leader. But the Padres have 25 games left, so that’s five more starts for Peavy. If he pitches as well in those five starts as he has in his last eight, he’d end up with 20 wins, an ERA of right around 2.00, and 250 Ks. I don’t care how big Petco is, that deserves some serious consideration. Although if Pedro didn’t win in 1999 (I’m only typing this because it’s fun: 23-4, 2.07 ERA, 213 IP, 313K, 0.92 WHIP, in a year where the league ERA was 5.07), I don’t know how a pitcher could.
Pictures: Phillies Fan Page, here, USA Today, and Daily Illini.
I didn't get around to doing a profile this week, but thanks to Baseball Musings, With Leather, OBoS, El Lefty Malo, obsessivegiantscompulsive, and Say Hey for linking to the Matt Cain profile.
13 comments:
Eric Byrnes? Arguably the best player on arguably the best team in the NL.
You mean the Eric Byrnes who's 24th in the league in VORP on a team that's been outscored by 44 runs? Or are you talking about someone else?
No, the other Eric Byrnes.
I'm still very pissed that Pedro didn't win the MVP in '99. And I'm not even a Red Sox fan. He was so dominant, it wasn't even close.
Pedro's been screwed a couple of times on awards he had every right to, mainly because voters got tired of awarding him every year. The '99 MVP was his, and it's embarrassing that a juiced up Ivan Rodriguez won it. He also deserved the 2002 Cy Young over Zito, who had a significantly worse ERA, worse WHIP, almost 60 fewer Ks, and Pedro had 20 wins to boot.
It's sad when history doesn't properly appreciate greatness as it's happening.
As a Jays fan I can feel the pain. I still think Carlos got cheated out of the 2000 MVP award when he was Top-10 in virtually every offensive category (except triples and stolen bases). He had almost as many extra-base hits (99) as strikeouts (104).
Uh.. Jimmy Rollins.. C'mon.
two words j roll he leads the leage in runs and extra base hits and is arguably the best hitter on the best offersive team in the NL
"j roll" isn't the best hitter on his team, and although the Phills have one of the best offenses, their stadium helps enormously.
I am one of the people that doesn't think pitchers should get MVPs. There is an MVP award for the pitcher called the Cy Young award. I would rather the MVP be given to a player that contributes every day. The NL though doesn't seem to have any "for sure" guys like A-Rod, but I do like David Wright if he continues to play like he is and has a 30-30 season.
J-Roll's numbers are pretty even home and away. I could understand if his home numbers were significantly better, but that's not the case.
Hey Vegas Watch, nice call on those rockies not making the play-offs, and yes, Holliday WILL win the NL MVP
You serious, Anon?
I said they were unlikely to make the playoffs. BP had them at an 11% chance of making it when I wrote this. I feel like that was pretty reasonable.
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