Before I get into any kind of intelligent analysis, I'd like to point everyone to Ryan Braun's MySpace page. (Warning: This immediately starts playing T.I.'s "Big Things Poppin" really loud.) I don't know if this is actually his (he only has 88 friends, which seems low), but I found it entertaining ("Occupation: 3rd base").For awhile now, Ryan Braun has been considered a lock to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. From an August 20 post on Baseball Analysts:
And I'm not going to waste my time disputing that, because Lederer is right, Braun is probably going to win the ward easily."If discussing Braun's place in history is a bit premature with more than a month to go, I believe it is safe to say that he is a virtual lock to win the NL Rookie of the Year. Braun has even been mentioned as an MVP candidate although it says here that he will have a difficult time beating out teammate Prince Fielder, who is leading the league in home runs with 38."
But should he? Braun is a great hitter- there's no doubt about that. His .627 SLG would be second in the majors (behind only A-Rod) if he had enough ABs to qualify. And it's not like that's his only value- he's also batting .327, with a .367 OBP (he has walked only 27 times, which is somewhat concerning).
The problem is, that's not the whole story. As amazing as Braun's bat has been this year, his glove has been that bad. Fielding percentage is a terrible stat, but I doubt anyone with a .904 FLD% (22 errors in 105 games at third) has ever been a good fielder.
But who else can compare, even with Braun's fielding diminishing his overall value? He's done it quietly, but Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki has been tremendous, playing 148 games and hitting .292/.363/.471, with 22 HRs and 91 RBIs. He's also had some huge hits late in games. Yes, Coors helps in this somewhat, but his OPS+ is still 108, which is excellent for a shortstop.
And that brings us to the main point- not only does he play SS, he plays it really, really well. In his chat last Friday, BP's Nate Silver commented that, using Clay Davenport's system (DTs), Tulowitzki has saved the Rockies 21 runs in the field. In the comments of his latest post, Tangotiger estimates that Tulo has been 15 runs better than the average SS.
But does that make up for the difference at the plate? If we look at the rookie leaders in VORP* (which accounts for both the parks they play in, and the positions they play), they have Braun at 52.6, and Tulowitzki at 35.1. That's a difference of 17.5 runs, approximately how many runs Tulowitzki has saved the Rockies with his glove.
So before we even factor in Braun's pathetic fielding efforts, these two are about even. And make no mistake about it, Braun's fielding is miserable. Silver said the DTs have him at -17 runs, while Tangotiger's survey put him at -10 over 162 games, or about -7 for the amount he's played in '07.
Even if we're very conservative, and use the -7 number, that puts Tulowitzki pretty comfortably ahead. Ryan Braun is going to win the Rookie of the Year award, but that's only because the concepts of positional value and fielding are over the BBWAA's heads- Troy Tulowitzki has been the NL's best rookie.
*The only problem with doing this is we're combining a metric that uses replacement level (VORP), to these fielding stats that compare fielders to the average third baseman. This gets especially messy because Tulowitzki has played a lot more than Braun. Because of this, I went to FanGraphs and looked at their BRAAs (Batting Runs Above Average). I adjusted them for both positional values and park factors, and here's what I got:
That's a difference of 14.5 runs, which is actually less than the 17.5 that VORP has. So either way, the difference in the value of their bats has been about 16 runs, give or take a couple.Photos from Mop Up Duty, MLB.com, here.
Update: In the comments, John just linked to this fantastic picture from the Brewers game on Monday:
15 comments:
This is a sign from a fan at monday night's brewer game:
(image tags don't work, so you'll have to go to flickr and see it yourself)
the pic is here (http://flickr.com/photos/gardnerjr/1441641384/)
Saw this sign just after braun committed a throwing error, didn't get the pic until after he hit a homerun to redeem himself!
A couple years from now, Braun will be in right field, and all will be well.
The Brewers need to get rid of some of those part-time outfielders anyway.
Tulo is the dark horse in this race and he could possibly pull off the upset. The big problem that I’m having is over looking his splits, it’s the same reason Matt Holiday isn’t the MVP in my eyes. I know the Rocky Mountain theories are tired, but up in the thin air he hit .330/.398/.564 with 14 homers and 55 RBI and everywhere else his line dropped to .256/.329/.382 with eight homers and 36 RBI. That’s a huge difference, and therefore inexcusable. He does have a huge edge on Braun defensively.
But this one of those rare cases where I actually question this kids ability due to Coors. Would his average really flucuate 80 points either way if played all his games out of Coors or all in Coors? It's simply unbelievable how the quality of his play differs from one venue to the next.
The splits really aren't the way to go about looking at this. Weird stuff can happen with splits, due to their small sample size- this year Fausto Carmona is 9-1 with a 2.14 ERA in day games, and 9-7 with a 3.63 ERA in night games. That's almost definitely just random.
Fortunately, we can control for this stuff, as I have done. VORP penalizes Tulo the appropriate amount. And even with my BRAA analysis at the end, I penalized him 4.5 runs, which is the appropriate amount considering Coors' park factor this year is 107.
That's the thing about baseball analysis these days- we don't have to guess anymore, or arbitrarily penalize someone for the park they play in. We know how much to penalize him. For this reason, it doesn't make sense to just write off Tulowitzki's splits as "inexcusable". Even with them, he has been better than Braun.
I should have included this before, because it is a better example than Carmona. This year, Jake Peavy has a 2.51 ERA in Petco, and a 2.13 ERA on the road. Does that mean Petco hasn't helped him? No, it means that he's been fantastic on the road, and (relatively) terrible at home. We still have to adjust for park factor, because if he was pitching in an average park instead of Petco, his home ERA would be significantly higher than 2.51. Splits just aren't an effective way of doing this.
One point re: road splits -- Tulowitzki plays an inordinate number of road games in the NL West -- home to four of the worst hitters parks in baseball....and four well above average rotations.
If he got to play more road games in Wrigley Field and Great American and more games against subpar pitching, how different would those splits look?
Well I just watched Tulowitzki make a far better play in the bottom of the 8th of their LA Dodgers game tonight. I bet Braun couldn't have handled that half as well. It's should be about being the all around player not just a hitter. If you suck at defense then the other team scores and then it isn't all about your hits anymore.
Also Nick have you ever heard of the humidor?
The humidor must be out of order this season - the 2007 park factor for Coors is about 116.
There have been 801 runs in 78 games at Coors, and 710 runs in 80 road games for the Rockies.
As for Tulowitzki, his career OPS is 907 at home and 706 on the road, so it's not just this season.
I'll take Braun, myself.
The Park Factor for Coors this year is actually 107. That's high, but no higher than in Arizona, and actual slightly lower than Cincy.
"I should have included this before, because it is a better example than Carmona. This year, Jake Peavy has a 2.51 ERA in Petco, and a 2.13 ERA on the road. Does that mean Petco hasn't helped him? No, it means that he's been fantastic on the road, and (relatively) terrible at home. We still have to adjust for park factor, because if he was pitching in an average park instead of Petco, his home ERA would be significantly higher than 2.51. Splits just aren't an effective way of doing this"
That's crazy, all that proves is that Jake Peavy is the man and has kept relatively close numbers home and away, an ERA under 3 is amazing especially in this day and age and he's maintained that away from home.
And how can you possibly say that splits are effective... Jeremy Guthrie's splits show that he had an ERA of 2.72 before the break and he has been 5.00 since. That doesn't prove that he broke down during the second half?
It's well documented by everyone that Coors field offers offensive advantages for hitters due to the atmosphere and altitude. Hell it's a scientific fact that extends well beyond baseball.
When applied to baseball it's because of the frictional force, or rather, the lack of it. Which results in ordinary fly balls traveling further and faster routinely for home runs. When the ball comes off the bat two forces act to bring it down. The gravitational force and frictional force. Frictional force occurs when air molecules rub against it as it travels through the air. The Density of air decreases at higher altitudes. Less density less air molecules, less frictional force. Which Means a ball will travel faster and further.
Coors field is nearly one mile above sea level. Which means the air density is about 15 percent less than the league average air density around the league.
Due to this a 100 mph fastball hit at a 45 degree angle will travel 327 feet at an Altitude of 5280 feet which is what it is in Coors. That same ball hit in New York at an altitude of 55 will travel 291 feet.
Those figures are relative, because guys swing differenlty with more force, but the same exact swing on the same pitch will still travel further in coors than it will shea.
Who said Coors wasn't a relatively easy place to hit in?
Who are you arguing with?
Coors Field has been 7% easier to hit in than your average park this year. That is taken into account here. The difference between Troy Tulowitzki's home/road splits is not, because looking at his entire season and then adjusting it for his home park is a better indicator of how good he has been.
Guthrie's splits indicate he has been worse in the second half, just as Peavy's splits indicate he's pitched worse at home, and Carmona has pitched better during the day.
The point is, this doesn't mean the pitchers' performances has been caused by these factors. If Carmona's next start is during the day, we wouldn't expect him to pitch to his daytime 2.14 ERA, just as if it was at night we wouldn't expect him to pitch to his nightime 3.63 ERA. His overall 3.06 ERA is much more meaningful.
Everyone is talking about Offense..... A true Rookie of the Year candidate has all-around numbers Defensive and Offensive.
Look and Tulowitzki's defense and compare that to Braun.
Tulowitzki 151 Games, 1336.0 Innings, 817 Total Chances, 255 Put Outs, 551 Assists, 11 Errors, 112 Double Plays, and last but not least an awesome .987 Fielding Percentage.
Braun 109 Games, 916.1 Innings, 241 Total Chances, 59 Put Outs, 156 Assists, 26 Errors, 12 Double Plays, and Oh Yeah, league lowest .892 Fielding Percentage.
What it comes down to is Tulowitzki has Gold Glove numbers for a Shortstop. The opposing team hits the ball at this guy a ton and he only committed 11 errors. Most all of his defensive numbers for Tulowitzki are leading the Majors at Shortstop. Troy Tulowitzki should be the Rookie of the Year hands down, no questions asked.
Tulo should be rookie of the year and get a golden glove.
Is rookie of the year just about the numbers? Is MVP? I hope they at least factor in the intangibles. Late game hits with 2 outs, leadership (for a rookie this is huge), and sacrificing averages for good of the team (bunts, sac flies,...) are all important too.
The real question that should be considered is: Where did Braun get the Brewers?
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