In 2001, Ichiro Suzuki burst onto the scene in this country, hitting .350 and stealing 56 bases as the Mariners dominated the AL for six months, winning 116 games. He edged out Jason Giambi for the league MVP (which was somewhat ridiculous; it should have gone to Giambi or A-Rod), and of course also took home the Rookie of the Year award.But his performance against the Indians in the ALDS is how I'll always remember Ichiro's debut season. In five games, he hit .600, and was a constant distraction on the basepaths (although he only ended up with one steal in the series). His impact was felt in each game, and he was the biggest reason the Mariners advanced to the ALCS, where they lost to the Yankees.
Ichiro will be absent from the playoffs this year, as the Mariners have collapsed, losing 15 of their last 17 games. I thought I'd take a look at which leadoff hitters will have the biggest impacts in October, both positive and negative.
To come up with these rankings I used four criteria, weighted in this order: OBP, fielding (using stats from MGL and THT), SLG%, and SB/CS.
Tier 1: All-Around Forces
Sizemore hasn't matched '06's 92 extra base hits, but already has ten more walks (88) than he had all of last year. He has also easily surpassed his previous career high of 22 SB. THT doesn't like his fielding, but I think most reasonable minds (both statistical and scouting) agree that he's a huge asset in center.
Joe Sheehan had a great article (subscription only) about Jose Reyes' transformation a couple weeks back. Here are Reyes' BB% over the past four years:
In '04 and '05, Jose Reyes almost never walked, with 32 BBs in 962 PA. In comparison, it took him just 265 PA to reach 32 BBs this year. It's impossible to say how much of this progress has come from working with Rickey Henderson, and how much was the natural maturation of a young player, but Reyes is a completely different player then he was in 2004, when he had a .271 OBP in 220 ABs.
Sizemore hasn't matched '06's 92 extra base hits, but already has ten more walks (88) than he had all of last year. He has also easily surpassed his previous career high of 22 SB. THT doesn't like his fielding, but I think most reasonable minds (both statistical and scouting) agree that he's a huge asset in center.Joe Sheehan had a great article (subscription only) about Jose Reyes' transformation a couple weeks back. Here are Reyes' BB% over the past four years:
In '04 and '05, Jose Reyes almost never walked, with 32 BBs in 962 PA. In comparison, it took him just 265 PA to reach 32 BBs this year. It's impossible to say how much of this progress has come from working with Rickey Henderson, and how much was the natural maturation of a young player, but Reyes is a completely different player then he was in 2004, when he had a .271 OBP in 220 ABs.
Tier 2: Solid Contributors
Rollins is second among all SS in SLG, and and has been successful in 82% of his stolen base attempts. He is kept out of the top group because both his OBP and fielding numbers are only average.
Willits has come out of nowhere this year, possibly because he has a batting cage in his apartment. He's also been excellent at all three outfield spots (mostly in left). If he had more than 19 XBHs all year (including 0 home runs), he'd really be a force.
Soriano has struggled with injuries this year, playing only 118 games thus far. But his .293/.332/.523 is actually above his career average. He's really not cut out to be a leadoff hitter; he would be a much better fit in the 5 slot. Regardless of where he hits, the Cubs are going to have to pay him $18MM/yr from 2010-2014, which is going to be rough.
Rickie Weeks might be the best .238 hitter in baseball, as that average is supplemented by 63 walks in just 344 ABs. He's pretty bad at second, although I don't really know where else the Brewers could put him.
In 1999, Johnny Damon hit .307/.379/.477 and made $2.1 million, This year, he's at .262/.347/.377, while making $13MM; the Yankees still owe him $26 million over the next two years. Damon played a key part in Boston's 2004 run, and the Red Sox continue to use him to their advantage.
Head over to FJM for plenty of excellent writing on the topic of David Eckstein. At one point ESPN.com's Eric Neel included him in a column titled "Larger than Life: Today's Future Legends". That may have been a slight exaggeration.
Impressively, Chris B. Young has managed to have a below average offensive season while hitting 30 HRs. This will happen when you hit .237 and rarely walk.
Last year, in 146 AB after getting traded to the Dodgers, Julio Lugo hit .219/.278/.267, had six extra base hits, and got thrown out in 5 of his 11 stolen base attempts. The Red Sox decided to ignore this and gave him $36MM over four years. That's not working out too well.
Marcus Giles was great with the Braves in 2003 (.316/.390/.526). Unfortunately, his OBP has dropped every year since then, and his SLG is over 200 points below it's '03 level.
Pictures: Sizemore, Ichiro, Damon, Willits' Apartment. Stats from B-R and ESPN, contract info from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Rollins is second among all SS in SLG, and and has been successful in 82% of his stolen base attempts. He is kept out of the top group because both his OBP and fielding numbers are only average.
Willits has come out of nowhere this year, possibly because he has a batting cage in his apartment. He's also been excellent at all three outfield spots (mostly in left). If he had more than 19 XBHs all year (including 0 home runs), he'd really be a force.
Soriano has struggled with injuries this year, playing only 118 games thus far. But his .293/.332/.523 is actually above his career average. He's really not cut out to be a leadoff hitter; he would be a much better fit in the 5 slot. Regardless of where he hits, the Cubs are going to have to pay him $18MM/yr from 2010-2014, which is going to be rough.
Rickie Weeks might be the best .238 hitter in baseball, as that average is supplemented by 63 walks in just 344 ABs. He's pretty bad at second, although I don't really know where else the Brewers could put him.
Tier 3: Below Average
In 1999, Johnny Damon hit .307/.379/.477 and made $2.1 million, This year, he's at .262/.347/.377, while making $13MM; the Yankees still owe him $26 million over the next two years. Damon played a key part in Boston's 2004 run, and the Red Sox continue to use him to their advantage.
Head over to FJM for plenty of excellent writing on the topic of David Eckstein. At one point ESPN.com's Eric Neel included him in a column titled "Larger than Life: Today's Future Legends". That may have been a slight exaggeration.
Impressively, Chris B. Young has managed to have a below average offensive season while hitting 30 HRs. This will happen when you hit .237 and rarely walk.
Tier 4: The Bottom
Last year, in 146 AB after getting traded to the Dodgers, Julio Lugo hit .219/.278/.267, had six extra base hits, and got thrown out in 5 of his 11 stolen base attempts. The Red Sox decided to ignore this and gave him $36MM over four years. That's not working out too well.
Marcus Giles was great with the Braves in 2003 (.316/.390/.526). Unfortunately, his OBP has dropped every year since then, and his SLG is over 200 points below it's '03 level.
Pictures: Sizemore, Ichiro, Damon, Willits' Apartment. Stats from B-R and ESPN, contract info from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
4 comments:
Where the hell is Curtis Granderson at???
On a team that isn't making the playoffs.
But Philly and St. Louis aren't probably going to make it either.
In the AL, BOS, NYY, CLE, and LAA are each at least 90% to make the playoffs. The NL isn't as clear cut, so I included more teams.
Post a Comment