October Evaluations: Top Twos

The importance of having a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation in the postseason isn't new. In 1963, the Dodgers were just sixth out of 10 NL teams in offense, scoring 3.93 R/G. Despite this, they won the World Series, on the strength of starters Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. Here is the combined line of Koufax and Drysdale in their three starts in the '63 Series:

The Dodgers swept the Yankees in four games, as their starters (Podres being the third) got 106 of the 108 outs.

As impressive as that was, the 2001 Diamondbacks were probably even more impressive, if only because their dominance was over three series rather than one. Here is the combined line of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in the 2001 postseason:

I had forgotten about this, but in Game 6 against the Yankees, the D'Backs were up 15-0 after four innings, and were clearly going to force a seventh game. Going against all logic, Arizona manager Bob Brenly left Johnson in for seven innings, apparently so he could protect a 15 (later 13) run lead. Sure enough, Johnson was needed in Game 7, on 0 days rest. This is detailed in Neyer's book, although it did turn out well for Arizona.

As the playoffs have expanded and extra off days have been added to accommodate TV, top starters have become even more important, as they can now potentially pitch four games in the five game division series. With that in mind, let's take a look at the 1-2 starters on teams that still have a shot at October.

1. Cleveland (C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona)

I wrote about Fausto the other day, so I'll use this space to promote C.C. for Cy Young. At this point, it's really between Sabathia and Beckett. Their lines:

I'm already mad about this, and the voting hasn't even happened yet. There is no possible way to look at this and say Beckett has been better. They have essentially the same ERA, which makes the comparison quite easy, since Sabathia has pitched 38.1 more innings. That's over four games. I would have some faith that the voters would see how obvious this is, but when Colon won in '05, all expectation of the voters being at all reasonable was lost.

2. Boston (Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling)

One could make an argument for either the Padres or Angels being here. I'll take the Red Sox' duo, however. Beckett and Peavy are basically a wash (Peavy has the ridiculous ERA, but remember he pitches in the NL and that park), so that makes the #2s the deciding factor. In his last five starts, Schilling has a 3.03 ERA- making this even more impressive is the fact that two of those starts have been against the Yankees. And both these guys have excellent October track records, with Schilling's (7-2, 2.06 ERA, 109.1 IP, 22BB, 104K) probably being the thing that eventually vaults him into Cooperstown.

3. LAnaheim (John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar)

Neither of these guys have overwhelming peripherals, but they have ERAs of 3.25 and 3.18, respectively. Not to say they're not excellent pitchers, but part of this is because their home park has a park factor of 96, which means it gives a pretty significant advantage to pitchers (Petco, for comparison, has a PF of 94). Regardless, whichever of these guys is their #2 (Escobar, I guess) is the second best #2 starter in the postseason, behind Carmona.

4. San Diego (Jake Peavy, Chris Young)
Peavy, who is going to win the NL Cy, is obviously fantastic. But don't be fooled by Chris Young's 2.77 ERA. A lot of that is caused by his home park (the size of which allows him to get by with a GB% of 29.8%), and luck (his FIP is 3.31). Even considering that, he hasn't been the same in the seven starts since he came back from the DL, going 0-4 with a 5.79 ERA and walking 23 in 37.1 IP. At this point, Maddux might even be a better option- the Padres are only this high because Peavy is that good.

5. NY Yankees (Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte)

Let me start by saying there's a huge drop off after the top four. For the first half of the year Pettitte was really getting by with smoke and mirrors (3.24 ERA despite only 56K in 105.2 IP). He's been much better recently, with an 80:30 K:BB ratio over his last 91 innings. And if you're looking for playoff experience, he has plenty of it. It's insane that Wang has been mentioned in some Cy Young discussions, but he's solid, with a 61.5% GB rate in his career.

6. Arizona (Brandon Webb, Doug Davis)

Since the streak ended, Webb has come back to earth, going 3-2 with a 4.93 ERA. But that was bound to happen; he's still one of the best pitchers in the NL. Doug Davis has been a solid #2, although 94 walks in 183 IP is cause for concern.

7. Chicago Cubs (Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly)

To the surprise of nobody, Zambrano wasn't very good today on three days rest. I really don't get doing that in September- it didn't make sense with Peavy either. Anyway, this is another solid but unspectacular combination. Zambrano has been a real disappointment this year, with his K rate dropping after it had increased each year since '03. He may be showing the after effects of pitching 861 innings in his age 22-25 seasons. He has also thrown 120+ pitches 36 times in his young career, which is somewhat worrisome. Ted Lilly has made his contract not look insane, having a very solid year because of a career high 3.0 K/BB ratio.

8. NY Mets (Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez)

Who knows. 6IP, 7H, 0BB, 9K is pretty damn promising though. I really don't care about the Mets, but I"ll be rooting for Pedro from here on out. I'm actually much more excited about Pedro than Glavine and his miserable 82:60 K:BB ratio. An impossible rotation to predict.

9. Milwaukee (Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan)

Sheets is wonderful, but he's hurt again. A 1-2 of Suppan and David Bush actually wouldn't be the end of the world, as Bush would be good (124K, only 41 BB in 167 IP) if he didn't give up so many HRs (24, or 1.3/9IP). Still, it's not exactly a playoff caliber combination. (Edit: Fastness & Hyatt (simultaneously!) point out that Yovani Gallardo should be included in this discussion- if Sheets is hurt, the Brewers' 1-2 figures to be Gallardo and Suppan. I'm keeping them at 9, but that does improve things.)

10. Philadelphia (Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer)

Hamels wasn't terribly impressive (3IP, 5H, 3ER, 2K) in his return today,
and they need him at the front of this rotation. Because after that it's Moyer and Kyle Kendrick (who has managed only 41 Ks in 109 IP, although he doesn't walk anybody either). But man, can this team score (5.55 R/G). And if the Mets never win again, they don't even have to play particularly well to advance.

(I had the Dodgers in here before they lost twice on Tuesday. They were fifth.)

Pictures: Diamondbacks, CC, Peavy, Pettitte, Pedro (Deadspin). Stats from B-R and FanGraphs.