Sabathia, Beckett Frontrunners for AL Cy

Last Sunday, Josh Beckett started against the Orioles. Through seven innings he had pitched pretty well, allowing two runs while striking out eight. The score was 2-2 after the 7th, and he had thrown 116 pitches- he was done for the afternoon. The Red Sox scored in the top of the 8th on a Coco Crisp single, Okajima and Papelbon combined to give up one hit over the last two innings, and Beckett got his AL-leading 18th win.

I don't think anyone would argue that wins and ERA are the two biggest factors in the Cy Young voting. It also quite clear, to met at least, that Josh Beckett's season thus far would have been just as good if the Red Sox hadn't scored in the top of the eighth, and if he was 17-6 right now, rather than 18-6.

Problem is, that's not how the voting works. The voting is done by the BBWAA, and their members are strangely obsessed with wins, because they think pitchers have control over games beyond how many runs they allow. This leads to some absurd results, such as Bartolo Colon winning the award over Johan Sanatana two years ago. A comparison of the '05 lines of Bartolo and Johan:

Colon won the award pretty easily, receiving 17 of the 28 first place votes. Why? Because the Angels scored 6.02 runs per game when he pitched, while the Twins averaged only 4.70. The fact that Anaheim's offense was better than Minnesota's was the deciding factor in determining the league's best pitcher. Makes sense, no?

Anyway, here are the guys who are in the running for this year's award.

1. C.C. Sabathia


FanGraphs is fantastic, and this graph of Sabathia's walk rate since he came into the league is probably my favorite graph from the entire site (blue line is MLB average).



Six years ago Sabathia, just 21, struck out 171 in 180.1 innings and had a 4.39 ERA, going 17-5 because the Indians had the second best offense in the AL. I remember thinking than "Man, if he could just stop walking people, he'd be unhittable."

Well, that happened, as the 2007 version of Sabathia has the third lowest walk rate among pitchers qualified for the ERA title. Except for the improved control, Sabathia is pretty much the same pitcher that he was back then, striking out about 7.5 per 9, and allowing less home runs than the league average. But decreasing his walk rate from 4.74 BB/9 to 1.35 has allowed that pitcher with so much potential to live up to the hype.

The thing that separates Sabathia from the pack is his 220 IP. There are eight AL pitchers with 16+ wins; among the other seven, John Lackey has the next most innings, with 195. Sabathia has done this by not missing a turn all year, and averaging 7.1 innings per start, with four complete games.

2. Josh Beckett

The intention of my introduction was not to be critical of Beckett, who has bounced back from a rough '06 (5.01 ERA, 36 HR allowed), to put together an impressive campaign. If he hadn't missed two starts in May, he might be 20-6, and the clear front runner for the Cy. As things currently stand, he's tied for the league lead in wins (with Wang), but is hampered by having pitched almost thirty less innings than Sabathia. The voters do take innings pitched into account (rightfully so), so, unless something else changes dramatically, Beckett is probably going to have to finish with two more wins than Sabathia to overtake him in the voting.

3. (tie) Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey

Sabathia and Beckett have begun to separate themselves from the field, but Anaheim's front line is still in the race. Both Lackey and Escobar have quietly had great seasons, and they'll be a force to be reckoned with in October.

(Side note: As always, NYY & BOS will get all the hype heading into the first round. But LAA has these two guys, and CLE has Sabathia and Carmona, giving them better 1-2 punches than either the Yankees or Red Sox. With the extra off days, this could be a big factor in the Division Series; it would not shock me to see an Indians-Angels ALCS. Man, FOX would be furious if that happened.)

Anyway, Lackey and Escobar will probably get four starts apiece down the stretch, so one of would probably have to win out and get to 20 to have a chance of catching Sabathia and Beckett.

The Field

Chien-Ming Wang didn't make his first start until April 24; if he hadn't missed those first three turns in the rotation because of a hamstring injury, he, like Beckett, could be at the top of the list. At that point, we'd have a Colonesque situation with Wang, as his win total is inflated by the Yankees scoring 7.12 R/G for him.

Santana, although still fantastic, has killed his Cy chances this year with a relative lack of run support (24th of 39 qualified starters), and a career high 30 HR allowed.

Fausto Carmona has been a great surprise for the Indians. Although his '06 campaign will always be remembered for the four game stretch in which Carmona the closer went 0-4 with a 37.13 ERA, he was actually great in a setup role before that, with a 0.95 ERA in 28.1 innings, mostly pitching the 8th. He's come onto the scene this year as part of one of the league's best 1-2 punches, as well as inspiring Torii Hunter to give one of the best quote of the year, saying, "He's not even human. It was so scary, I thought I was hung over."

After 16 starts, Danny Haren was 9-2 with a 1.78 ERA. He has since leveled off, going 5-5, 4.66 since June 26. He's not going to win, and next year he'll probably be closer to 4.66 than 1.78, but Haren has had an impressive season regardless.

If Wang were to get to 21 or 22 wins and get that ERA down into the 3.20 range, he'd have a shot. The other three would have to pull a Brandon Webb over their last 3-4 starts to have a chance of catching the leaders.

Of course, we won't have to accept the the BBWAA's selection if they screw this up, as BP's Internet Baseball Awards will pick a deserving winner.

Pictures: Beckett, BBWAA, Sabathia, Escobar, Lackey, Carmona. Graph taken from FanGraphs, stats from B-R and ESPN.