Friday, October 12, 2007

ALCS MVP Odds

Since this went so well last time (what odds do you think I could get on Webb winning the MVP now? 100:1?), let's have a look at BetUS.com's ALCS MVP odds.

The problem with these is that the house advantage is enormous. All of these percentages add up to 216%, which is a bit excessive- for regular futures odds, that number is usually about 140%.

Having said that, and with the understanding that I am probably making the same mistake here that I made with Webb, Beckett at 8:1 is my favorite here. I'm still half-convinced that Boston will go with him in G4, since starting Wakefield really seems like it would be a complete mess. And if it ends up being Beckett vs Westbrook in G7 (in Boston), the Red Sox would be enormous favorites.

Related: ALCS Playoff Prospectus: Indians versus Red Sox [BP, Jaffe]

2 comments:

Hugh McSnatchercraft said...

might be a smart time to throw down a twenty on Pronk's 10-1 odds, same as DUSTIN PEDROIA!?!? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!

numbers be damned, thats just about the most ignorant thing ive ever heard.

Vegas Watch said...

That's a good point, and Hafner's line probably isn't that bad.

I think this is more a reflection on how ridiculously horrible Pedroia is at 10:1, though.

After writing this, there is no doubt in my mind that Dustin Pedroia will go 15/24 in this series with six HRs.

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