The last time the Indians made it this far, I was 11. Needless to say, I am excited. I was thinking about doing one really long preview, then decided that was dumb. So I'll be breaking this up into sections (SPs, RPs, and lineups, I guess) over the next few days. Today, the rotations.As you will see, I am going to decide which team has the "edge" in each match-up, and then arbitrarily give a number to the "impact" that will have on the series. We'll see how this goes.
Game 1 (Fenway, Friday @ 7pm)
CLE Starter: C.C. Sabathia
BOS Starter: Josh Beckett
I'm going to resist getting into the Cy Young debate again. Since we're now concentrating on who will do better going forward, here are the rate stats for these two guys (final column is Fielding Independent ERA):
So, yeah, these guys are decent. This is almost a dead heat, but I'm going to give the advantage to Beckett for a few reasons. First, Boston's defense is better. The stats shows this, and I've anecdotally noticed it as well (especially when Trot is playing).Second is the fact that Beckett obviously looked a lot better in the ALDS. I'm not big on "playoff experience" and "he's been there before", but Sabathia was clearly a little too hyped up at the beginning of G1, leaving everything up; he ended up walking six batters for the first time since 2004. Beckett, on the other hand: 9IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, 8K, 108 pitches, 83 strikes.
The schedule is weird this year. There's a day off between G4 and G5 (which is stupid; they're only doing this so they can start the WS on a Wednesday). This means that either of these guys could pitch on three days rest in G4, and then come back on full rest for a potential G7. I doubt the Indians will do this with CC; they'll probably be pretty happy with CC in G5, and Fausto in G6. Boston might though; Beckett obviously has a history on three days rest and Wakefield is kind of a mess right now.
On July 24, Sabathia was impressive against Boston (7IP, 5H, 1R, 0BB, 7K), but the Indians lost 1-0. On July 25, Beckett pitched very well against Cleveland (8IP, 4H, 1R, 0BB, 8K), only to lose 1-0.
FWIW, Manny has killed CC in the past (.571/.609/1.286 in 23 PA), and Hafner's had Beckett's number (.444/.583/1.111 in 12 PA).
Advantage: Boston
Impact: 2/10
Game 2 (Fenway, Saturday @ 8pm)
CLE Starter: Fausto Carmona
BOS Starter: Curt Schilling
Here are the numbers from these two this year, although they really don't tell the whole story.
Fausto Carmona's K/9 by month:
Fausto has really been a different pitcher after the first two months. He only had 11Ks in his first five starts, but has averaged 6.75 K/9 over his last 17. That, along with an AL-leading 64% GB rate, made him a Cy Young candidate in his first full year as a major league SP. And if that didn't get people's attention, Friday night certainly did.Boston has decided to go with Schilling in G2. He pitched great in the ALDS, which probably factored into that decision. It should be noted that the Angels were without Casey Kotchman in G3, and Gary Matthews Jr. didn't play the entire series. I'm sure Schilling's postseason record (8-2, 1.93 ERA, 23BB & 108K in 116.1 IP) also was taken into account. Schilling still has the great control, but his K/9 this year is down about 2.5 from his career mark of 8.60. Another 7IP, 4H, 0R, 4K performance is certainly possible, but Carmona is clearly the better pitcher right now.
Fausto beat Beckett 1-0 in that July 25 game (8IP, 4H, 0R, 2BB, 6K). Schilling struck out 10 Indians over seven very impressive innings in May.
Edge: Cleveland
Impact: 5/10
Game 3 (Jacobs Field, Monday, 7pm)
CLE Starter: Jake Westbrook
BOS Starter: Daisuke Matsuzaka
After his start on July 3rd, Matsuzaka was 10-5 with a 3.53 ERA. Then things started going downhill:
Those are some pretty alarming trends. He continued his struggles against the Angels, not making it out of the fifth inning. He's pitched against the Indians twice this year, getting hit hard in May, then beating Sabathia 1-0 in July.Westbrook was terrible in his first six starts this year (7.90 ERA) before going on the DL for 7.5 weeks. Since coming back he's been pretty good, with a 3.54 ERA in 19 starts. He struggled in round one (5IP, 9H, 6R, 1K), and didn't pitch well against Boston in July (6IP, 10H, 5R, 4BB, 1K).
Edge: Cleveland
Impact: 2/10
Game 4 (Jacobs Field, Tuesday, 8pm)
CLE Starter: Paul Byrd
BOS Starter: Tim Wakefield (maybe)
Byrd pitched against Matsuzaka in May, and did pretty well (6IP, 9H, 2R, 0BB, 1K). I continue to have no confidence in him, but maybe he'll continue to prove me wrong (results-wise; he did allow ten baserunners in five innings against NYY). Almost three times as many hits as Ks; that's not a good ratio.
I kind of doubt that Wakefield ends up making this start. Francona on Beckett starting G4:
"The only way that could happen, at least looking at it quickly, is if Wake isn't OK. We want Wake to pitch Game 4, but we don't need to go into Game 4 of a playoff experimenting. ... We need him to be OK and he understands that."He's certainly keeping all of his options open. If the Sox are down 2-1, I think it'll probably be Beckett. Wake last pitched on September 29th, and his last five starts haven't been impressive: 24.2 IP, 7 HR, 8.76 ERA. He hasn't pitched against the Indians this year.
If this is the actual G4 match up, I think the Indians have the edge, but I'm not at all convinced that it will be.
Edge: Cleveland
Impact: 2/10
The rest of the schedule:
IF NECESSARY
Game 5: @CLE, Thursday the 18th, 8pm
Game 6: @BOS, Saturday 20th, TBD
Game 7: @BOS, Sunday 21st, TBD
So, in total, the Indians' rotation gets the edge, by seven "impact" points. If Wakefield actually starts G4, I think the Indians have the clear advantage in that game as well as G2, with a slight edge in G3. If he doesn't, Beckett, even on three days rest, is better than Byrd, but then the Indians would have big advantages in G5 and G6.
Photos: Carmona, Beckett.
6 comments:
I'm a little skeptical of Beckett's first game domination. No Gary Matthews, no Casey K., and Garrett had pink eye which probably isnt the easiest thing to hit through. Basically, the Angels suck, record is a product of beating up on texas, oakland and a slumping seattle. not a big fan here...
The Indians' offense isn't Anaheim's thats for sure. But Beckett has done well against the Tribe before, so who knows.
I'm not so sure that we have a big advantage over Wakefield in Game 4: his junk would seemingly match up pretty well against our younger team. Otherwise, I agree, and well-done. I was considering doing a pitcher's breakdown myself, but it wouldn't have been this good.
Agree about the Angels lineup. Beckett's advantage was more because of 2003, CC looking shaky vs NYY, and the three days rest thing.
Wakefield was really, really bad in September, MC. And it seems like he's still hurt.
If anything, I gave Beckett too much credit in his matchup vs. Sabathia, and not enough credit for potentially pitching three games in the series. Those two things probably cancel each other out, though.
i don't think there's really a way to tell who has the advantage in the matsuzaka westbrook game. westbrook has pretty consistantly gone 5-7 inn giving up a fair amount of hits and 1-4 runs. i thinks its fair to say more then likely he'll go something like 6 inn 3 runs 9 hits. Matsuzaka on the other hand has either been really good or terrible (even in those last 14 starts). on July 24th (@ cle), july 29th (@TB), aug 4th(@sea), aug 10th(@Bal), aug 22(@TB), Sep 28th he was very good. and on sep. 14th he was allright (giving up 2 runs to the yankees but only going 5.2 and walking 5 [but 7ks]). anyway, matsuzaka has been very on and off in those last 14 starts (which is where all those games came from) but games like sept.8th (2.2 inn 8 er 6h 2hr 3bb 2ks) make the overalls look worse than they really are. i think it really depends on which matsuzaka shows up. its also important to note that in those 14 games he was ALWAYS bad at home, so he has the best chance of being good in cle. then there's also that his sept was awful (1 quality start and almost 2 [he needed 1 more out against the yankees to get his second]), but it ended on a good note against min (not exactly an offensive force but still). i think that game 3 comes out to a draw seeing as westbrook averages around 3 runs a game and in 8 out of matsuzakas last fourteen starts he has given up 3 or less runs (2 or less in 7 of them). i see this game split pretty evenly, as far as starting pitching goes. other than that i'm ok with everything (though i dont get the impact points at all)
First of all, the impact points are not meant to be understood. They are meant to confuse.
"i think that game 3 comes out to a draw seeing as westbrook averages around 3 runs a game and in 8 out of matsuzakas last fourteen starts he has given up 3 or less runs"
Yeah, but if you look at it like that, you're almost ignoring the times he gave up 5, 6, 7, and 8 runs (one each). That's kind of the point of the rate stats- those aren't overly effected by any one start. And in the second half, he's given up at ton of HRs, and a ton of walks. In those 14 starts his Fielding Independent ERA is 5.02. Since coming back from the DL, Westbrook is at 3.83. I really think the Indians have the edge in G3.
Good comment though. It's almost like you have a lot of time on your hands or something...
First off to get it out of the way I have lived and died by the Boston Red Sox since I came out of the womb. I really enjoyed this piece, very well done.
The only thing I want to see out of this series (even if it means the Sox lose and dont get to the WS) is Paul Byrd vs. Tim Wakefield.
That's a dream match up in an old timey baseball kind of way. FOX could show that game in black and white. It'll be classic.
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