ALCS Primer: Game 1

After three grueling days without American League baseball, the ALCS finally begins tonight. I've already written about the rotations, lineups, bullpens, and defenses. And as if that wasn't enough, I discovered that we really shouldn't just look at the Pythagorean records of these two teams and assume the Red Sox are a lot better; it's actually pretty close.

Game 1 Lineups
Against the righty Beckett, I would assume won't do anything weird- Victor catching, Garko at first, Asdrubal at second, Peralta at short, Blake at third, Kenny in left, Grady in center, Gutierrez in right, and Pronk DHing.

Boston is going to start Kielty in right, since he has the platoon advantage against Sabathia, and has hit CC well in his career (.310/.375/.655 in 32 PAs). Beyond that, I would assume it'll be Youk, Pedroia, Lugo, and Lowell from 1st to 3rd, Manny and Coco joining Kielty in the OF, and Ortiz DHing.

Game 1 Starters
Sabathia vs. Beckett is a pretty ridiculous matchup. I had somehow missed this, but Knuckle Curve points out that against lefties this year, Sabathia has walked four while striking out 75. Yes, his K:BB ratio against lefties this year is better than 18:1. Add in 3 HBPs, and 3 HRs allowed, and his Fielding Independent ERA against LHB is 1.49 this season.

That's pretty amazing, although it isn't going to be particularly helpful against the Sox, since with Drew out of the lineup they'll have only one lefty (Ortiz). Sabathia's FIP against righties is 3.48.

I saw on ESPNNews this morning that Beckett has thrown a shutout in three of his last four playoff starts. This is over the span of three series and five years, with a relief appearance in between, but that's still pretty amazing. In his last five October appearances, he has struck out 41 while walking six in 38.1 innings. He has allowed one homer, and his ERA is 0.70. Wow.

Game 2 Bullpens

Well, everybody is rested. There's a good chance that Papelbon will be the only reliever the Red Sox need, if they need any at all. For Cleveland, I would expect Betancourt to see more action than Perez because of all the righties Boston is starting, although they do have a few lefty bats on the bench (Drew, Hinske, Ellsbury, Cora).

One gambling note: here are the odds from BetUS.com for the exact result of the series.
I think that "Red Sox, 4-3" line is pretty good. G7 would either be Beckett (if they pitched him on short rest in G4) or Matsuzaka, against Jake Westbrook. In Boston. These lines only give Boston a 56.5% chance of winning that game. If it comes to that, even if it's Matsuzaka against Westbrook, Boston is going to be a much bigger favorite than -130, which is the corresponding line for 56.5%.

Completely unrelated, but can everybody (read: ESPN) please shut up about this interference call last night. It was a good call, he went out of his way (intentionally or not) to prevent Matsui from completing the DP. Where is the debate here?

G1 starts in about 3.5 hours, so it's finally time for a prediction. I'm gonna go with Indians in 6. I think Boston wins tonight, but the Indians take G2. Then the Indians take 2/3 in Cleveland (I'm not gonna bother trying to predict the exact games, since we don't really know who Boston's G4 starter is), then Fausto ends it in G6. I'm sticking with my "Fausto becomes famous" prediction.

Update: I would just like to add that my "gorilla math*" has CLE +151 as giving the bettor about a 10% advantage tonight.

*The Urban Dictionary definition for that term is awesome.

Completely unrelated, but a new college football blog written by some friends of mine who are reasonably intelligent: Week 7 Picks [Little Men on Campus]