ALCS Primer: Game 5

Tonight, the Indians have a chance to clinch their first pennant in 10 years, with likely Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia taking the hill for the Tribe at Jacobs Field.

If you isolate that information, it looks great for the Tribe. But Sabathia has struggled in the postseason, and he's going up against Josh Beckett, who has been dominant in two October starts (0BB, 15K in 15 IP).

Because of this the Sox are actually favored tonight, with Vegas giving them a 53.8% chance of extending the series to a sixth game.

Game 5 Lineups

Kielty started in right for the Sox in G1, and came through with a two-run single in the 5th that knocked Sabathia out of the game. Drew has had a pretty poor series, going 4/15 with no extra base his and no walks. I would think Kielty starts tonight against the lefty Sabathia.

Wedge played Gutierrez in right in G1, but he struck out both times he faced Beckett, so I'd guess he goes with Nixon tonight. Although I think I've been wrong on the Indians' RF the last three games, so I should probably stop.

Game 5 Starters

I have very little left to say about this Beckett character. Last six postseason appearances (five starts): 44.1 IP, 19H, 5R, 6BB, 48K, 2HR, 1.02 ERA, opponents hitting .128/.173/.209 against him. He did give up two runs against the Indians in G1, but one was a Hafner HR that was probably aided by the wind, and the second came when the score was 8-1. The Red Sox claim he left after six innings and only 80 pitches because of "tightness". I don't even really know what that means. I expect him to be absolutely filthy tonight, as usual.

Prior to this year, Sabathia had pitched over 200 innings in a season only once, throwing 210 innings in 2002. So far this season, he's at 250.1. That's probably main reason for his struggles in two postseason starts, with nerves also playing a factor (and also the fact that the two offense he's faced are just really good). After walking 37 batters over 241 regular season innings, he's issued 11 free passes in 9.1 playoff innings. Luckily for him, the Indians' other starters have gotten them this far, and tonight he has a chance to make everybody forget about his poor October thus far.

Game 5 Bullpens

These extra off days really make bullpen management easy for Wedge and Francona. Off day yesterday, and an off day tomorrow, which means they really don't have to hold much back tonight. Betancourt was the only guy who threw multiple innings in G2, and even he only threw 15 pitches (12 strikes...the guy is a machine).

Live-blog up soon. First pitch at 8:21.