ALCS Primer: Game 7

Listening to ESPN Radio last night, I heard one of the hosts (Jeff Rickard?) say that there's no way Boston loses Game Seven. I think I agree with this. The way he's thrown over his last three starts, the Indians really have no shot at beating Josh Beckett. Westbrook would have to pitch the game of his life, and I just don't see that happening. This series is over.

Oh, wait, Beckett isn't pitching? Francona didn't pitch him on three days' rest, saved him for G5, and so Daisuke Matsuzaka is pitching tonight? Well, that certainly changes things.

The Red Sox were 17-15 in games started by Matsuzaka during the regular season, and are 1-1 in the playoffs. After winning 8 of Matsuzka's first 10 starts, the Sox are 10-14 over his last 24.

The only point I'm trying to make is that saying the Indians don't have a chance is ridiculous. The Red Sox are favored, and rightfully so. They have "momentum" on their side, are playing at home, and have a stronger offense. But with each of these teams' seasons coming down to tonight, anyone who says they know what the result will be is lying.

Game 7 Lineups
Varitek, Youkilis, Pedroia, Lugo, Lowell, Manny, Ellsbury (why not?), Drew, Ortiz

Victor, Garko, Asdrubal, Peralta, Blake, Kenny, Grady, Trot.

I would say these are educated guesses, but that's probably giving myself too much credit at this point.

Game 7 Starters
Matsuzaka really struggled in Game 3, getting knocked out in the 5th. He allowed four runs (and it could have been worse; Timlin stranded both runners he inherited) on six hits, walking two and striking out six. The two walks are a bit deceiving, as he was behind in the count the whole night, throwing just 59 of his 101 pitches for strikes.

Westbrook was effective in Game 3, if not dominant. He struck out just two over 6.2 innings, while allowing seven hits and walking three. But he worked out of trouble, inducing Ortiz, Crisp, and Ramirez to hit into double plays in the first, second, and sixth, respectively.

Part of this was luck, but part is by design- Westbrook's career GB rate is 59.6%. He's a sinkerballer who pitches to contact, and his G3 performance was somewhat typical. Tonight, the Sox are inevitably going to have their fair share of baserunners; even more so than usual, the outcome of the game hinges on what they'll do in those situations.

Game 7 Bullpens
The Red Sox only used Gagne and Lopez last night. Okajima has as much rest as the two starters- he hasn't pitched since Game 3, six days ago. Papelbon went an inning in Game 5; I would think he'll be able to go two tonight, although it's unclear how comfortable Francona is with doing that.

Rafael Betancourt and Jensen Lewis could play huge roles in this game. Amazingly, these two are pretty obviously the Indians' best relievers at this point. Betancourt last pitched in Game 5, Lewis in Game 4. Each is very capable of going two innings. It seems somewhat unreasonable to expect Westbrook to pitch in to the seventh again. I think Wedge will (should?) be happy if Westbrook pitches five innings and keeps the game close. After that, there's no reason to hold back- go right to Lewis. If he gets through the sixth, bringing him back out for the seventh, but have Betancourt ready. And yes, I expect to send a good deal of the game tonight yelling at the TV about Wedge's bullpen managment.

Live blog will be up a little later than usual, probably around 7:45ET. I expect it to be a complete mess, regardless of the outcome of the game.