This ignores how good Papelbon is and other factors like that, but Holliday's little miscue in the 8th decreased the Rockies' chances of winning from about
Vegas gives the Rockies a 42% chance of winning Game 3, with Matsuzaka vs. Fogg at Coors. If BOS wins, Colorado's chances of pulling the miracle 3-0 comeback will be about 4.3%; if COL wins, their chances of winning the series will be about 24.8%. So they're almost six times more likely to win the series if Josh Fogg can figure out a way to get some Red Sox hitters out on Saturday.
5 comments:
The Rockies had an 89% chance of winning when down a run with 2 outs in the 8th with a runner on first? That doesn't seem right. Doesn't Boston actually have ~82% WE at that point, increasing to ~84% after the pickoff?
Good call, Scott. Was doing that way too fast this morning, and inverted the numbers.
Unrelated, but if you try to post a link to your site or something, I'm not gonna publish it in the comments. Sorry.
No problem with the links rule, it's your site and your rules should be respected. I just question it because comments like the first one on wednesday's thread have obvious links to the commenters website and there are other examples...
Feel free not to publish this comment. Will not post with link in the future. Just try to be fair. :)
Ok, take two! :)
The Win Expectancy (WE) Calculator had 11% and 17% for those two game states. You are correct in stating that the WE Calculator does not take into account who the pitcher is and for that matter which hitters are coming up, and many other game details that are also important. One way to determine this is to use a game simulator and run many samples to come up with a win expectancy based on the true state of the game. Having done so, I came up with a win expectancy of...
Pre-Pickoff: Rockies 16.45%
Post-Pickoff: Rockies 11.48%
1% Standard error.
vr, Xeifrank
Fair point about the one on Wednesday- I didn't see that link (it was at the very bottom of the comment) until after I published it. And I have no idea how to delete comments after I publish them.
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