Edit: Updated odds are here.As you may have heard, the Colts and Patriots are playing each other this weekend. If the Pats win, they'll move to 9-0; Indianapolis would be 8-0.
Regardless of Sunday's winner, the undefeated hype will really get serious. In fact, BetUS has already posted odds on what record each team will finish with.
Below are the posted odds, as well as the equivalent percentage. The % has been adjusted to take out the house advantage, so each teams' add up to 100%.
Before Sunday's 52-7 win over the Redskins, the Pats were at 3.5:1 (18.2%); prior to beating the Panthers, Indy was 8.5:1 (8.8%). The fact that these lines moved pretty dramatically indicates they got a lot of action on "16-0" for each team last week.
I think this may have unreasonably changed the line. WSEX has the line for either team going 16-0 at +177; the equivalent % for that is 34.7%. The Pats' and Colts' "16-0" BetUS odds add up to 38.2%. So maybe it's closer to 24% for the Pats, and 11% for Indy.
The line on this week's game is all over the place; BetUS has it at 6.5, but The Greek has the Pats favored by 5. Either way, that's pretty unbelievable, since this game is at the RCA Dome. Those lines mean the Pats are between 8 and 9.5 points better than Indy, after you figure in the three points for home-field. I know the Pats are good, but are they really that much better than a team that's 7-0?
Anyway, that means the Pats win on Sunday about 69% of the time, according to Vegas. So it depends on the margin of victory, but if the Pats win on Sunday their "16-0" odds would shift to about even money, or 38% after taking out the house advantage. A Colts win would probably put them at about the same odds (maybe 3:2, although people would probably go nuts if they beat NE). Either way, these guys better watch out.
Finally, here are the remaining schedules for each team (IND on the left, obviously):
Photo from SI, schedules from ESPN.Previous "What Are The Odds":
.400
DiMaggio's Streak
13 comments:
Why don't you do this all the time. This is Vegas Watch, right? this is what you do best. It's too bad you venture from your niche so often.
Well, I like to think that the other stuff here is also interesting, but I do understand your point. There's not enough of this material to do this kind of thing every day, however.
I would like to note that the "hype it up" icon currently reads zero, as someone apparently "hyped it down". I have never seen a "0" on BallHype before.
Here's a statistical projection (The methadology is explained in detail on the site.) to compare to the Vegas lines to.
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php
Here's the meat of the issue:
Chances of New England going 16-0: 12.3%
Chances of Indy going 16-0: 4.7%
Out of curiousity is there a way to convert point spreads to %win probabilities. For example if the Colts are 3 point favorites (making this up) over the Patriots, could it be converted to saying something along the lines of the Colts having a win probability of 65%.? Thanks.
vr, Xei
K-man: Thanks, that's interesting. I figured that that kind of analysis would probably have them lower than the lines do.
Xei: Yes, and that's what I did to calculate NE's chances of winning on Sunday.
VW, do you care to share the conversion formula/table? Is it online somewhere??
vr, Xei
Looking at the schedules alone, I think the favor clearly has to go to NE. They're remaining opponents (after this Sunday) are 22-30 with 3 road games, while the Colts' are 28-29 with 4 on away from RCA.
NE has also palyed an extra game, so they have a shorter (in addition to easier) remaining schedule.
I'm curious to know whether there is a statistical way to calculate the 16-0 odds based on remaining opponents winning percentage and home/away splits.
If either team loses a game this season (after Sunday, of course), then the most likely culprits to beat them are:
Colts:
SD (at home vs. Indy)
BAL (at home vs. Indy - revenge game)
Pats:
BAL (at home vs. NE) or
PIT (at NE)
Other than that, I don't see either team losing the rest of the way.
Xei- it's not so much a formula, but just taking the money line and converting that into a %, then adjusting it so the %s for the two teams add up to 100%.
Portola- I think the link k-man posted is the best analysis of that you'll find. I think it's pretty hard to do that kind of thing was such a small sample though. Like, how much credit do you give the Pats for winning by 45? Is it really that much more impressive than not going for it on 4th down when you're up 31 (or whatever it was), and winning by 24?
the Pats have a big chance of losing at NYG Game 16 if they are 15-0, because they will have HFA locked up.
That's an interesting point. Although, the way they've been going, would anybody be surprised if Belichick played all his starters, at least for the first half?
If they get to 15-0 heading into the NYG game, I think they have to play the starters regardless of HFA.
Do you really want to be known as the team/coach/player who had a chance to be perfect, but benched Brady instead?
I think Belicheck's scoring tendencies this year indicate that he could careless what people think of him. Plus would it be any worse than being known as the 'guy who got brady hurt playing in a meaningless game before the playoffs'?
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