From MLB.com:"In the end, the astounding things Ryan Braun did at the plate trumped whatever things he didn't do in the field. The Brewers' third baseman won the 2007 Jackie Robinson National League Rookie of the Year Award on Monday from the Baseball Writers Association of America."If you've read this blog for any amount of time, you probably know how I feel about this:
"Ryan Braun is going to win the Rookie of the Year award, but that's only because the concepts of positional value and fielding are over the BBWAA's heads- Troy Tulowitzki has been the NL's best rookie."Let's start with defense. John Dewan's +/- system is probably the most accurate fielding metric out there- they chart every single play, and it's based on what percentage of the time an average fielder makes each play. So if you make a play that is only made 10% of the time, you get +.9; if you miss a ball that 75% of people get to, .75 is deducted. This year's best and worst in this system are posted here:
"Shortstops
Leaders
Tulowitzki, +35
Third Baseman
Trailers
Braun, -41"
That's in runs rather than plays- when you convert it, the 76 play difference is worth about 60 runs. So, the difference between Braun and Tulo's defense this year was approximately equivalent to the difference between the offensive values of Alex Rodriguez and Garrett Atkins.
Braun was obviously better offensively, but he doesn't even come close to making up that gap. His VORP was 20 runs higher than Tulowitzki's. There's no debate here- Tulowitzki deserved this award. He also deserved the Gold Glove; Jimmy Rollins is a good defender, but he's nowhere near Tulo. At least he won something.
Looking at this from the BBWAA's perspective:
Tulo: .291 BA, 24 HR, 99 RBI, 104 runs, .987 fielding % (11 errors)
Braun: .324 BA, 34 HR, 97 RBI, 91 runs, .895 fielding % (26 errors)
It's clear that the writers just don't care about defense at all. As flawed as the stat is, you'd think a fielding % of below .900 would get people's attention, if only because it looks weird- we're not used to people being that bad.
I also stand by the theory that some writers didn't even bother to look at the stats- they got it into their heads in August that Braun was going to win the award, and that was the end of that. If even one person had this line of thinking, it effected the result of the voting. Braun won by two points; if you flip-flop the top two on just one ballot, Tulowitzki wins.
4 comments:
The trouble with fielding is that traditional measures have zero context relative to hitting and therefore become merely a footnote or tie-breaker. How much is .030 points of fielding percentage worth for a shortstop? Right fielder? I'm not even sure.
We need to get people to measure fielding and offensive in runs. Any ideas on how to make that mainstream?
how did you come up with the arod/atkins comparison. i know this point is sorta unconcequential but atkins is still a good offensive third baseman and fielder in general whereas tulo is one of the, if not the best infielders playing possible the hardest position on the feild and braun is just awful. in terms of rankings (as opposed to +/- runs produced, which is what im guessing you used) i would (and there is no actual research here, just intuition) make the comparison to arod and david dejesus. though, i'm pretty sure i'm wrong, it just seems atkins is too good a player to compare with braun's horrendous defence.
would you be willing to do something similar to what you did earlier for nl mvp's except use fielding bible stats for fielding and the final season totals (vorp or adjust wpa, i find both suitable) for hitting?
Sky- I think Dewan's system is a step in the right direction, as it's something that is understandable and can be explained.
Mr. Odoh- A-Rod was 60 runs better offensively than Atkins this year, which is a *lot*. That's compared to the difference between Braun vs. an average 3B, and Tulo vs. an average SS. VORP considers the positional adjustment, so thats all you need to take into account beyond that. I'm probably explaining this really poorly.
Matthew- It looks like the 2007 numbers for all the top NL MVP candidates are listed on the Fielding Bible website, so I'll look at that tomorrow. Good idea, thanks.
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