Explaining a Ballot

As I mentioned earlier, I sent an e-mail to Kevin Sherrington, the Dallas Morning News writer that didn't have C.C. Sabathia on his AL Cy Young ballot at all. Everybody else had C.C. either first or second, so I wondered what Sherrington's logic was.

He was kind enough to reply very quickly. His ballot was Beckett, Carmona, Santana, in that order. His explanation for each follows.

Beckett:

"No, the 20 games didn't do it. It's only a game's difference. Beckett's
ballpark had something to do with it, along with my feeling that Beckett was a better big-game pitcher, a fact borne out again in the playoffs."

It was good to see that Beckett didn't get the nod simply because he had a shiny win total. It's true that Beckett pitches in a slightly more difficult park (Fenway's park factor is 106; Jacobs Field's is 103). This does make Beckett's ERA+ (145) superior to Sabathia's (143)

But that's a fairly minimal difference; it clearly doesn't make up for the huge innings disparity. And also, if we're looking at outside factors, how about defense? The Sox had the best defense in the league; Cleveland's was below average. Finally, the fact that Beckett pitched well for the Florida Marlins in the 2003 playoffs really couldn't be less relevant to the 2007 AL Cy Young.

Carmona:

"I gave more credence to Carmona's road ERA over Sabathia's."

Carmona's road ERA was 2.73; Sabathia's was 3.32. I have no idea what this has to do with anything.

Santana:

"Should I have had Santana over Sabathia? Probably a mistake. I think
Santana's numbers other than W-L are outstanding. I was influenced too
much about having two Indians on a three-man ballot. Shouldn't have let that be
a factor."

It's clear that if he could do it again, Sherrington would have Sabathia at least third on his ballot. It's cool that he admits his mistake, although this really seems like something that he could have realized before submitting his vote.

If you're going to give Beckett credit for pitching in a hitter's park, shouldn't Johan be hurt by having half his starts in the Metrodome? Minnesota's home park was very friendly to pitchers, with a 96 park factor. This caused Santana's ERA+ to be 130, clearly inferior to Sabathia's 143.

It's clear Sherrington put some thought into his ballot, and didn't just look at Beckett's 20 wins and put him first because of that. But it seems like his methodology was quite flawed; he was pretty selective in what factors he took into account for each pitcher, and considered arbitrary things that don't matter at all ("Beckett was a better big-game pitcher", Carmona's road ERA).

It's impossible to watch all 2,430 regular season games each year, so people have to look at numbers to see how everyone did. The problem is that some people focus on the wrong things. This generally happens when things like RBIs, runs, and a pitcher's W-L record are cited. Inevitably, in an NL MVP debate, someone will refute the numbers and say Rollins was the most valuable player in the league...and then back that up with the fact he scored 139 runs.

Here, park factors were given far too much weight in one case, and completely ignored in another. More advanced stats (ideally things like VORP, but even ERA+ and OPS+) automatically give the proper weight park factor and similar adjustments. If people would just take the time to learn and understand them, it would save everybody a lot of hassle.