Ortiz For MVP?

I was under the impression that there was no debate about the AL MVP. No matter how clueless you are, it's pretty clear that Alex Rodriguez was the best player in the American League this year.

I was incorrect. Apparently, Boston has to win absolutely everything at this point.

"Although it's a little tougher to see at the first glance of a stat sheet, Big Papi was as dangerous as ever this year -- and the real MVP of the American League."

This is actually not an unreasonable statement. He "only" had 35 HRs, but had 52 doubles, and a ridiculous .445 OBP. His 171 OPS+ was the highest of his career. A-Rod was better, but Ortiz had a pretty insane year himself.

But the problem with this article is the argument itself, rather than the general thought.

"Ortiz performed better in the clutch, outhitting the Yankees third baseman with runners in scoring position, .358 to .333, and also posting a higher OPS in the same situation, 1.142 to 1.138."

I defy you to look at the following "clutch" stats and come away thinking that David Ortiz was a better clutch hitter this year than Alex Rodriguez.

(Side note: A-Rod got hit SIX times with two outs & RISP. That's incredible.)

To say David Ortiz should be the MVP because he was a better clutch hitter than A-Rod this year is entirely unreasonable. FanGraphs keeps track of exactly how clutch each player is. A-Rod was +1.10 wins, Ortiz was -1.48. There is no argument here. Moving on.

"In the last week of the season, when every win became life or death, Papi somehow found a higher gear. Despite limping around on one good knee, Ortiz hit a mind-boggling .647 with a 2.139 OPS."

Is this guy serious? I especially like the "life or death" reference. The Red Sox clinched a playoff spot on Saturday, September 22. With seven games left in the season. I am unclear as to how they were playing "life or death" regular season games when they were assured of being in the playoffs.

"Of course, there's also the DH factor. The plodding Ortiz doesn't contribute on the basepaths and with the glove the way A-Rod does. But while A-Rod's 24 steals certainly deserve respect, they weren't the difference between wins and losses. For a Yankees team that averaged six runs a game, one steal a week wasn't exactly a monumental event."

A-Rod was only caught stealing four times, for an impressive SB rate of 85.7%. But this isn't "valuable" because...the Yankees score a lot of runs?

"His zone rating (number of plays a player makes within his "zone") and fielding percentage ranked in the middle of the pack and an adjusted zone rating stat offered by analysts at The Hardball Times put A-Rod second to last among AL starters."

Interesting. THT also keeps track of how valuable a player's overall contributions were in the form of Win Shares. So, because of A-Rod's poor fielding numbers, they probably have Ortiz being more valuable, right?

2007 AL Win Shares leaders:
1. Alex Rodriguez, 39
---
8. David Ortiz, 29

Oh.

You could probably make some vaguely coherent argument for Ortiz being the MVP if you concentrated on his leadership and dug up some numbers that showed A-Rod was really bad defensively.

Or, you argue Ortiz was more valuable because he was more clutch and was great in the last week of the season, and because A-Rod's steals are meaningless because the Yankees score so many runs. I'm glad Jason Tuohey made the right choice.

Photo: This Blog Sox.