Risky Relievers

There are many ways to run a baseball team. For teams with large payrolls, it's not all that complicated. The Yankees can seemingly just throw money at all their problems. The Angels have apparently decided to start signing a CF coming off a career year every offseason.

The majority of teams, however, have to be a little more discriminant with their spending. Some are better at this than others. This becomes particularly clear with contracts given to relievers; it is quite obvious that different teams have very different philosophies regarding this.

In 2007, the Reds had a $68.9MM payroll. The Indians were at $61.6MM (according to USA Today). Both signed free-agent relievers last week, but that's pretty much where the similarities end.

Cincinnati made a big splash, giving $46 million over four years to Francisco Cordero. Cordero is coming off an excellent year, with a 2.98 ERA, 86 Ks and 18 BBs in 63.3 innings. He was one of the top free agents available, and his salary reflects that.

The Indians, meanwhile, signed Japanese reliever Masahide Kobayashi for two years, $6.25MM. The deal also includes a $3.25MM club option for 2010. Kobayashi hadn't received much publicity, as many thought he'd stay in Japan. But it seems like he's a pretty addition to Cleveland's bullpen. His stats are pretty impressive, and Keith Law's writeup of Kobayashi is promising:

"...his raw stuff is as good as that of any reliever in the class. Kobayashi works with a fastball in the 93-96 mph range and gets good downhill plane on it by staying on top of the ball. His main offspeed pitch is a mid-80s slider with a hard, mostly downward break but not much tilt, and he also mixes in a cutter around 89-90."

Whenever you're dealing with free-agent relievers, there are two important things to keep in mind. First, how much are they really worth? Francisco Cordero is an excellent closer, but he hasn't pitched more than 75 innings since 2003. How good is he going to have to be to justify making $11.5MM annually while pitching about 1/3 the innings of a starter?

The second is the incredible volatility of relievers. Part of it is because of the small sample size (a few really bad outings can bloat your ERA). It's also because these are, for the most part, guys who couldn't cut it as starters; they're just not that good. Either way, Cordero had a 4.81 ERA in 46.2 innings with the Rangers in 2006.

Given this, doesn't the Kobayashi contract seem like a much better idea than Cordero's? Let's face it- we have no idea how these guys will be three years from now. Do you know how good Cordero is going to be in 2011, at the age of 36? If so, please let me know. To be honest, "bad or injured" is probably the best guess.

That's not to say I have any idea how the Indians' acquisition will turn out. Relief pitchers are a risk, there's no way around that. The point is, I'm pretty confident Indians' GM Mark Shapiro never even considered offering a contract to Cordero. And it's not just because they aren't in the market for a closer- they were last year, and ended up giving Joe Borowski a 1yr, $4.25MM contract.

If you're dealing something that is inherently risky, wouldn't it be smart to minimize your commitment? Like, not committing 1/7th of your 2011 payroll to a 36-year old reliever in 2007? There is no question that we should expect Cordero to be better than Kobayashi in 2008. But that's pretty much the only assumption I'm willing to make. Despite this, the Reds are giving $39.75MM more to Cordero than the Indians are to Kobayashi. And I'm not even convinced that he'll be worth the extra $8MM in 2007.

I just think there's a reason Mark Shapiro has been named "Executive of the Year" twice since 2005, while Wayne Krivsky is best known for his strange fascination with relievers.

Photo: Yahoo!