Big jump after the wins over Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, which makes sense. A similar increase after their 15th win over the Jets, which is kind of strange.Back when they were 8-0, BetUS had them at +200 to go undefeated, which seemed pretty ridiculous. But looking back, this actually wasn't a bad line. The money lines for their last 8 games were (approximately) as follows:
Their last seven games have really been unbelievable; they have been favored by an average of 18.4 points. Ridiculous.If you had bet $10 on them to beat the Colts at -240, you would have ended up with $14.17. If you had then taken that money and bet on them to win in Week 10, you would have gotten to $15.11. Continuing this strategy for the rest of the season, you would have finished with $22.68 after tonight's win. So, in total, you would have been betting $10 to win $12.68; essentially a line of +127.
This is much worse than the +200 line BetUS had on them winning their last eight. This surprises me; usually with a prop like that, you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. I guess it would have been impossible to know how heavily they would be favored in these games, but even if you slightly underestimated them, you would have found that +200 was the better option.
The fact that it was the better option doesn't mean it was a good option, however. Below is the % chance each of these lines indicates New England had of winning the game, after taking out the house advantage (which is 3.6% on these NFL money lines).
Multiplying all these percentages together gets us to a 33.2% chance they would go undefeated. Amazingly, that would imply a line of +201. So it looks like +200 was too high; in the long run, you would come out pretty much even on that. In hindsight, knowing the ridiculous margins New England was favored by in their final seven games, it probably should have been about +170, allowing the books to have their normal advantage.I doubt tonight's win changes their SB odds; that's still probably at about 50%.
I don't understand this part:
ReplyDelete"If you had bet $10 on them to beat the Colts at -240, you would have ended up with $14.17. If you had then taken that money and bet on them to win in Week 10, you would have gotten to $15.11. Continuing this strategy for the rest of the season, you would have finished with $22.68 after tonight's win. So, in total, you would have been betting $10 to win $12.68; essentially a line of +127."
Does this take into account the losses on games when the Pats did not cover the spread?
For example in the season ending game vs the Giants the Pats did not cover the 14 point spread, so you would have lost that entire bet. Did you mean making the same $10 bet on each game?
That was betting on the moneyline, rather than the point spread, so each bet would have won. Most of the the odds were ridiculous though (betting 40 to win 1, and such), so going 8-0 would only get you from $10 to $22.68.
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