I figured it would be interesting to use point spreads to compare the strengths of various teams' non-conference schedules. So, to start off, I took the average number of points each top 25 team has been favored in each game this season. The one problem here is games for which there weren't spreads at all. It turns out that the average margin of victory for (current) top 25 teams in those games was 30 points. So, instead of the spread, I split the difference between 30 and the actual margin of victory. So if a team wins one of those games by 40, the number included in their average is 35.
Using this, as well as the actual spreads for each other game, here is how much each top 25 team has been favored by, on average, so far this year:
(A bigger number means an easier schedule; using this metric Kansas has played the easiest schedule of the top 25 teams, Butler the most difficult.)An interesting list. Although rather than strength of schedule, I think it would be more accurate to think of this as how challenging the schedule is to that particular team. For example, if another team had played UNC's schedule, they would be lower on the list, since they wouldn't have been favored as much in the same matchups.
Therein lies the problem; doing it this way is biased against the top teams. This can be seen pretty obviously in the fact that Kansas, Memphis, Duke, Georgetown, UCLA, UNC and Texas all have one of the ten easiest schedules. So, to remove the correlation between rank and SOS, I made a little adjustment, which gives us a new list:
This is better. Let's look at some of the extremes here.1. Tennessee, 21.1
The Volunteers played West Virginia and Texas on back-to-back days in Jersey a couple weeks ago. Those are both difficult games. But that's pretty much it. Here's the rest of their schedule, along with the line for each game:
That is pathetic. They haven't left the state, and the only non-home game on that list is against Chattanooga. Three games with no line, and no game in which they were favored by less than 16 points. So they've played two competitive games; they got blown out in one, and they beat WV by two on a neutral court in the other. Not much of a resume. It does get better the rest of the way, as they have upcoming games at Xavier and Gonzaga. 2. Pitt, 20.3
Pitt is kind of in the same boat. They've notched two solid wins in the last week (@Duquesne, @Washington), but their schedule prior to that was ridiculous. Four games without a line, and favored by 13.5, 24, and 22 in the other three, respectively. But it's not all bad for Pitt. They did win those games by an average of 30 points, which is somewhat impressive. Then they played (and won) two tough road games, and their difficult stretch continues, with their next three against Oklahoma St. (at home), Duke (at MSG), and @Dayton.
3. Kansas, 20.3
The Jayhawks are victimized a little bit by being really good; they were favored by fifteen at home against a solid Arizona team. They won that, and also won @USC. But (and I think we're beginning to see a trend here), the rest of their schedule hasn't been very tough. Two games without lines, and they've been favored by an average of 29 points in the other five. They have some decent games before Big 12 play begins (@GT, vs Miami OH, @BC), but for a team with Final Four aspirations, they really haven't challenged themselves over the first couple months of the year.
And on the other end of the spectrum...
23. Michigan St., 11
The Spartans have two things going for them in this analysis. The first is that Vegas doesn't seem to think they're all that good, as they were 2.5 point underdogs against BYU on a neutral court, and favored by only one against Missouri in the same situation. So Vegas hasn't given them the amount of respect that their current #10 ranking might indicate, which allows their schedule to look more difficult than it actually has been by this metric.
But they've also played five competitive games, which is a lot at this stage. There were the two I already mentioned, plus UCLA (neutral), NC State (home), and Bradley (away). They were underdogs in the game against the Bruins, and favored by nine and five in the other two. Sure, they've played four games against overmatched opponents, but those are outweighed by the other five.
24. Marquette, 10.7
The Golden Eagles have had a strange year. They've only played seven games. Two of those were been very difficult (Duke on a neutral court, @Wisconsin). In a third (Ok. St., neutral), they were favored by only 3.5, but won by 30. Their other four games have been against IUPUI, Utah Valley St., Chaminade, and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Because they've been underdogs twice, and only played four non-competitive games, their schedule comes out looking tough. It's been somewhat challenging to this point, but after their next four games (Sacramento St., IPFW, Coppin St., Savannah St.) they'll be much higher on this list.
25. Butler, 10.5
Now this is a schedule. The Bulldogs are obviously different from most teams on this list, as they have to notch some big wins in the early months before flying under the radar in the Horizon league come January (actually, come December; they've already played two league games). Even so, what they've done is impressive. Butler has been favored by between 5 and 12.5 points in each of its first nine games; that is some incredible consistency. They haven't lost a non-conference game yet, but did fall @Wright St. on Saturday. It's interesting to compare their schedule to Gonzaga's; the Bulldogs (Spokane version) have to play a difficult early season schedule as well, but have also sprinkled in some blowouts (Montana, Idaho, UC Riverside, Cal State Northridge).
0 comments:
Post a Comment