Week 15 Playoff Odds

Disclaimer: I know pretty much nothing about the NFL this year.

SportsBetting (and Sportsbook, for that matter- they have the same lines) has posted odds for a few teams to make the playoffs. Let's take a look.

Now, these may be meaningful to you, but they're not to me. However, Football Outsiders conveniently has a page where they list each team's % chance of making the playoffs. So let's compare.

This first table is for the odds that each team will make the playoffs. The first number is the % chance they would need to have for it to be a profitable bet. The second number is the % chance Football Outsiders (FO) gives them of making the playoffs. And the final column is the FO number divided by the first number; the higher that number, the more profitable the bet.

The one that really jumps out here is the Bills (+600). If they had a 1 in 7 chance the bet would break even, but FO thinks they have nearly a 1 in 5 shot. They are 7-6, and their final three games are @CLE, vsNYG, @PHI.

Now, the same thing with the odds that each will miss the playoffs:


Looks like the Vikings' +400 line is the best one available. I don't really understand why their line is so high. The Giants are 9-4, and have an 83% chance of ending up as the #5 seed. So that leaves one spot for the Vikings (7-6), Redskins (6-7), Lions (6-7), Saints (6-7), and Cardinals (6-7). Just looking at that, it seems like their chance of not making the playoffs is much closer to 34% than 20%.

The Jaguars also look like a nice longshot, at 50:1.