Inside Vegas: Conference Championships

The chances of each remaining team winning the Super Bowl, based on the futures odds at Sports Interaction, The Greek, Bookmaker, and Matchbook:

I took out some of the sites that have really high juice on these, as that skews things when a team's odds get as high as New England's.

The Pats are favored by 14 on Sunday, and their -700 line at Matchbook puts them at 86.8% to advance. So, if they get there, they're 82% to win the Super Bowl.

The Chargers' 13.2% chance of advancing coupled with their 7.8% Super Bowl chance puts them at 59% to win the SB if they get there. Combining the two, that puts the AFC at 79% to win the Super Bowl.

Given this, I'm surprised that the early SB line is AFC by 13.5; that seems too high. The Pats being favored by 14 this week gives them a 87% chance of winning. If the AFC is only 79% to win the SB, why are they favored by 13.5 points?

The first three here are unchanged from last week. The coin toss line is actually surprisingly close to being a good bet, but not quite.

That Brady line is even more incredible than last week's -130. He has to have better than a 77.8% chance of winning the MVP for that to be a good bet. The Pats are only 71.2% to win the Super Bowl.

Same goes for Favre. +500 needs a 17% chance to break even; the Packers are 14.9% to win the SB. These lines are shockingly bad.

Moss at +800 is infinitely better than those two. Does Moss have a 16% or better chance of winning the MVP if the Pats win the SB? If he does, it's a good bet. Seems like he might.

Same goes for Maroney at 15:1; he only needs a 9% chance of being the MVP in a Pats win for that to be a good bet. If the game was going to be played in cold weather that'd be really enticing, but, well, it's not.