Thursday, January 10, 2008

Straight Lines Are Bad

The following is the ESPN "Game Flow" from last night's Saint Louis-George Washington game. The top line tracks GW's scoring throughout the game, lower line SLU's.

As Rush the Court alertly pointed out last week, "straight line = bad."

With 8:39 to go in the first half, SLU's Barry Eberhardt made a layup, bringing the Billikens to within six (13-7).

They would have to wait 18 minutes for their next field goal. Luke Meyer scored with 10:39 left in the second half, bringing the score to 36-10.

Think about this for a second. Saint Louis scored one point (an Eberhardt FT) in 18 minutes. If they had timed this better, they would have had only a single point on the board with two minutes left in the first half.

During their drought, SLU was 0/24 from the field, including 0/11 from three.

The final score was 49-20. This was a historic performance; SLU scored the fewest points since the shot clock was introduced in '85-'86. The ended up shooting 14.6% from the field, including 5.3% from three.

This is not exactly typical for them; their previous low this year was 52 points. The pace of the game also likely effected the low output; Pomeroy had them ranked 329th of 341 D1 teams in adjusted tempo coming into Thursday night. Even so, his ratings predicted a 58-56 SLU win.

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