Super Bowl MVP Odds

First of all, the line continues to drop; it's down to 12 now. There is clearly a lot of action coming in on the Giants. I looked through some posts over at Covers to see what the thinking is behind this, and this thread pretty much summarized the consensus:

"Giants will win hands down. You don't have agree or believe what I am telling you. The Giants are a team on a mission, playing without any pressure and having fun doing so. If you haven't notices, this is Eli Manning''s best situation. The guy plays better without any pressure. One last point, the Giants just beat the two best teams in the NFC on the road. The pass rush will get to Brady this time around. I'd say the pressure is all the Pats, not a good situation to be in."

I kind of have a hard time believing that Eli Manning will play well in the freaking Super Bowl because there won't be any pressure on him, but that's just me.

You can bet on absolutely anything in this game. BetUS has a line on which team will get called for the first holding penalty of the game (Giants are -135, Pats -105). I don't really know how to analyze something like that, so you can to over to BetUS yourself and check them out (under Sportsbook, Futures & Props, *NFL Super Bowl XLII).

BetUS, Bodog and The Greek all have odds on the MVP. Here are some of the favorites:


I know the betting public isn't exactly brilliant (see above quote), but I'd really like to meet the person that bets on Eli to win the MVP at +350. The current money line for the game at Pinnacle is Giants +435. The MVP has come from the winning team in 40 of the 41 Super Bowls. So how, exactly, is Eli +350 better than Giants +435? That line is absurd.

I was shocked to see Brady at -125 at BetUS, considering he was -350 at the same site last week. I'm surprised I'm saying this, but I think Brady at +100 at The Greek is a pretty good value.

Using the money lines at Pinnacle, the Pats have a 81.5% chance of winning the game. So we need to know how often Brady will be given the award if the Pats win. In 41 Super Bowls, the winning team's QB has won the MVP 21 times. So that's 51%. But few of those teams have had the "NFL's golden boy".

Brady has already won two MVPs in his three Super Bowls. Let's say he's 65% to win in the 81.5% of the time that the Pats win. If that's the case, he'll win 53% of the time overall, and +100 is a good bet. It's only marginally advantageous, but I'm very surprised that line is even remotely reasonable, especially after the ridiculousness at BetUS the last week.

Aside from Brady, I'd say Maroney at +800 is the best bet. I'd pretty much eliminate anyone on the Giants, since it's pretty unlikely they win the game, and the odds don't really reflect that. If Moss has a big game that likely means that Brady did also, and that's what people will notice. I'd be kind of worried about how much the Pats will run the ball in the warm weather, but Maroney will get plenty of touches late in the game if they're leading.

I'm not going to break down the rest of the odds, because I wouldn't really know where to start, but here they are:Photo: Newsday.