They're Not That Good

Essentially the same exercise as yesterday, except looking at teams that are overranked rather than "under the radar". The following are the teams with the biggest difference between their rankings in the AP poll and the current Pomeroy ratings.

Vanderbilt; AP #16, Pomeroy #65

Formula for an inflated ranking:

1. Play nobody.

167th most difficult non-conference schedule. 11 home games, two away games (DePaul, Toledo), two neutral (Utah St., Bradley). Check.

2. Beat these teams, but not by that much.

15-0 in non-SEC games. Beat Tennessee St. by 9, and Tennessee Martin by 7. Both at home. These are not good teams. Check.

3. Establish yourself as "good" before you lose, so you don't drop too far.

Starting off 16-0 and climbing to 13th in the AP poll accomplished this. Then on Saturday they lost to Kentucky. Sure, it was on the road, but Kentucky already has five home losses this year, so that's not much of an excuse. Now they're no longer undefeated, and are suddenly just another one-loss team whose best W is...I don't know, either @DePaul, or South Carolina at home. And it's not like anyone expected much of them to begin with- they were tied for 43rd in the preseason AP poll. Yet they're currently #16. Their game in Knoxville on Thursday will likely change that.


Dayton; AP #14, Pomeroy # 44

I am not trying to bash Dayton, I think they're a very good team. This is more an example of how useless the AP rankings are.

Obviously, Dayton has two huge wins on their resume, winning at Louisville, and beating Pitt by 25 at home. After the Pitt win they were #20, which they probably deserved. The problem is that they certainly haven't played like the 20th best team in the country since then.

1/2: Took two OTs to beat a mediocre Akron team by two points, at home.
1/9: Beat Rhode Island at home by nine. Not bad, but a game they should win.
1/12: Needed OT to beat St. Louis. Yes, the same SLU team that scored 20 points against GW last week.

If the rankings made sense, Dayton would have slid down a couple spots after the two uninspiring OT wins. In the real world, everything except the fact that they *won* was ignored, and they moved up to #14. Dayton has created their own formula for an inflated ranking. First, they got a couple marquee wins (Louisville, Pitt) to vault them into the Top 25. Since that, despite not playing particularly well, they haven't lost, allowing them to continue to move up. The legitimacy of this entire exercise will be tested next Thursday, when Dayton visits Xavier. Pomeroy expects Xavier to win that game 77-64, so we'll see.

Villanova; AP #25, Pomeroy #73

Villanova went 10-1 against the 239th most difficult non-conference schedule in the country. Because they were 26th in the preseason poll, this got them up to #18. So that was a little excessive. In Big East play, they've lost on the road to two extremely mediocre opponents (DePaul & Cincy), and they beat Pitt at home. Pitt is a nice win, but it's the only team they've played that Pomeroy has ranked higher than 77th. There's really no reason for a team to be in the top 25 after going 11-3 against the country's 135th most difficult schedule. To stay in the T25 they'll have to beat DePaul on Wednesday, and then win at Syracuse on Saturday.