Under the Radar

I thought it would be interesting to contrast the latest AP rankings with the current Pomeroy ratings (explained here) to see where the largest discrepancies lie. Today I'll look at teams that haven't gotten as much attention as they deserve; tomorrow, teams that aren't as good as their AP rankings might indicate.

Marquette; AP #13, Pomeroy #3

I was initially surprised to see Marquette this high in Pomeroy's rankings, but now I get it. They don't have any marquee wins, but their resume is impressive in more subtle ways. There are two main characteristics that cause teams to be underrated by the AP poll, and Marquette has both.

1. "Quality" losses

Marquette has lost two games. In November, Duke beat them by four in Hawaii. Then, a week ago, they lost at West Virginia by 15. Neither of these are bad losses; everybody knows about Duke, but West Virginia is very good as well. According to Pomeroy, Marquette has played the 23rd most difficult schedule in the country.

2. Destroying teams

The AP voters mostly look at whether you win or lose, rather than how much you win or lose by. When we're trying to predict a team's future performance, doing this is ignoring some important information. Three of Marquette's victories are good examples of this:

11/20 Oklahoma St. (N), 91-61
1/3 Providence (H), 96-67
1/12 Notre Dame (H), 92-66

Having beaten these three teams, none of which are ranked, isn't particularly impressive. But beating them by an average of 28 points bodes very well for Marquette as they continue Big East play.


Xavier; AP #20, Pomeroy #9

Xavier has lost at Miami (OH) and Arizona St., and at home against Tennessee. The fact that they lost to ASU by 22 is a concern, but the concern is lessened when you look at their final three non-conference games:

12/31 Kansas St. (H), W 103-77
1/3 Virginia (H), W 108-70
1/6 Auburn (A), W 80-57

To me, even more impressive than the average MOV of 29 points was how Vegas dealt with these games. They were favored by 9 against K State, 9.5 against UVA, and 9 @ Auburn. Each of these lines were higher than I would have expected. The books clearly didn't want a lot of money on Xavier in these games, and the results explained why. Dayton has gotten most of the attention, but Xavier is the best team in a very strong A-10.

Drake; AP #26, Pomeroy #15

The Bulldogs lost at St. Mary's in their second game of the season, which is understandable, as St. Mary's is undefeated at home this year. Drake has since run off 13 straight victories, and are getting dangerously close to the Top 25. Their two most impressive non-conference wins came in beating a very good Duquesne team by four, and beating Iowa St. by 35. But it's been their MVC games that have allowed them to rise in Pomeroy's rankings, as they've started off 5-0, winning each game by an average of 11.4 points.


Wisconsin; AP #17, Pomeroy #6

The main reason that Wisconsin is only #17 is they were 40th in the preseason poll. It would be difficult to move up higher than 23 spots while losing twice over the first couple months of the season. But what's important is that those were quality losses; @Duke, and against Marquette at home. Their win @Texas is very impressive; it's also their only win that has come by less than 10 points. They haven't had much trouble in their first three Big Ten games, easily beating Michigan, Iowa and Illinois.