Vegas Power Rankings: Pac-10

Same thing as last week- rankings are based on the lines on conference games so far. Today, we look at the Pac-10, as everybody has played at least seven of the 18 scheduled conference games.

In theory, we should be able to predict future lines with this. For example, if UCLA hosted USC, they would be favored by 13.2 (9.3-0.0 +3.9 for home court). In fact, this matchup occurred last weekend, and the Bruins were favored by 11.5, only to lose by nine.

The top and bottom teams are very clear. Especially the bottom- the Beavers have been outscored 588-447 in eight games thus far. They are also just 2-6 against the spread, which is pretty remarkable since these have been some pretty big spreads (they were getting 16 from UCLA at home on Saturday; they lost by 23).

Oregon St. has a real shot at going 0-18 in conference play. Their best chance at a win will be at home against Washington on February 16, and even then they will be significant underdogs. Pomeroy's percentages give them a 46.8% chance of not winning a conference game.

So Oregon St. is terrible, and UCLA has a good shot at reaching its third consecutive Final Four. Aside from that, the best conference in the nation is pretty wide open.

I think Stanford, Washington St. and Arizona could each make a case for being the second best team in the conference right now. Washington St. won @Baylor and Gonzaga in non-conference, beat USC by 15 on the road, and have only lost @UCLA and @Arizona. I don't know- I just find something about the Cougars unconvincing. They were really never in the UCLA game after falling behind 28-10 (the final score is deceiving, as they hit a ridiculous seven threes in the last 1:37). And then they lose against Arizona. The same type of thing happened last year, when they got swept by both UCLA and Oregon (the top two teams in the conference), but went 13-1 in their other P10 games. Then they lost in the second round in both the P10 and NCAA tourneys. I think I'll remain a little down on them until they beat some of these elite teams, which they'll have plenty of opportunities to do.

On the surface, Arizona's resume isn't nearly as impressive. But when you take into account that they were missing freshman Jerryd Bayless for three of their six losses, it changes things. Bayless has been fantastic, averaging 20ppg with a 58% eFG%. Since he returned they have won @Houston and Cal, and won convincingly on their home floor against the two Washington schools. Their sole loss was @Stanford, when he shot 3/12 from the floor. They'll be tested this week, when they visit the southern California schools- coming out of that with a split would have to be considered a success.

The numbers- both in the table above, and Pomeroy's ratings- love Stanford, but their resume is pretty uninspiring. They played nobody out of conference, and didn't even go undefeated, losing to Siena. Their best road win is @Cal, which is 1-4 at home in the Pac-10. But they are 16-3, and have beaten USC, Arizona, and ASU at home. They'll have an opportunity to prove themselves on Saturday, as they play the Cougars in Pullman.

They're a clear #5 right now, but Southern Cal could join that discussion at some point. Their last three games have been very impressive, beating UCLA, Oregon St. (by 24) and Oregon on the road. After beginning conference play 0-3, they have a chance to move to 6-3 if they can sweep the Arizona schools at home this weekend.