Here are a few of the bets I think there's some value in.
Ryan Braun
Odds: 15:1
PECOTA homers: 39, 2nd in MLB
Braun was an absolute beast last year, hitting 34 HRs in only 492 PAs en route to winning the NL RoY (the selection was obviously debatable, but for reasons other than his bat). That's a homer every 14.5 PAs. His odds are the clear outlier among the '08 predicted HR leaders- the best you can do on anyone else in the top four is 5:1.
Rick Ankiel
Odds: 300-1
PECOTA homers: 30, 13th in MLB
Yes, seriously. PECOTA is very bullish on Ankiel- other projections dont' have him nearly as high. Will he lead the majors in HRs? No, probably not. But it's important to remember how good these odds are. Betting $20 would net you $6000. And hey, stranger things have happened.
Carlos Pena
Odds: 50-1
PECOTA homers: 33, 6th in MLB
Carlos Pena hit 46 home runs last year. Vlad Guerrero hit 27- he's never topped 45, and hasn't even reached 40 since 2000 (with a team that no longer exists). Yet they both have the same odds. I could do this comparison with Pena and pretty much anyone else, since his remarkable '07 season really flew under the radar. Sure, it doesn't really match up with his career stats, but it's hard to argue with getting the guy who was 4th in the majors in HR at 50-1.
Alfonso Soriano
Odds: 25-1
PECOTA homers: 35, 5th in MLB
The value here is because Soriano is coming off a "down year", hitting only 33 homers (mostly because he missed 27 games). Still, he hit 46 in '06, while playing half his games at RFK. He should probably be in the range of 10-1, but the line is skewed by last year's low output.
Othere decent bets: David Wright (100:1), Adrian Gonzalez (200:1), Nick Swisher (75:1), Grady Sizemore (300:1). Edit: Dunn (18:1), too. Good point.
I've posted all the odds here; feel free to post your pick(s) in the comments. The full PECOTAs are available here; a BP subscription is required.
Photos: Flickr, SI.
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