Bracketology Breakdown, Take 2

I am using Lunardi again this week, since Parrish hasn't updated his bracket in five days. If Parrish updates his in Wednesday, I will probably discuss that as well.

This week I have included the best preseason futures odds for each team, and the site at which they could be found.

Texas- #1 seed, Pomeroy #8 overall, 75:1 preseason odds (Sportsbook)
With wins over Tennessee (neutral), UCLA (away) and Kansas (home), a 10-2 conference record, and a 23-4 overall mark, the Longhorns have certainly built quite a resume. Similar to Tennessee win on Saturday, I think tonight's game against Kansas St. will essentially determine whether Texas ends up this high. The Wildcats have been dominant at home, 6-0 in the B12 with an average margin of victory of 21 points. A win would put them at 11-2 in the conference, with four huge victories on their resume, and no particularly bad losses. With three winnable games left (@TTU, vs. Nebraska and Ok. St.), they would be in great position to stay on the top line. A loss would drop them back down to a 2, and short of winning out through the B12 tournament, they would be unlikely to get back here.

Xavier- #2 seed, Pomeroy #15, 150:1 preseason odds (VIP)
Hey everybody- an A-10 team is currently in line to get a #2 seed. Is there a reason more people aren't talking about this? The last time a non-BCS school (excluding powerhouses Gonzaga and Memphis) was seeded this high was 2004, when St. Joe's was a top seed, eventually losing to Oklahoma St. in the regional final. Xavier certainly deserves their lofty seeding- they've gone 12-1 in the #8 conference in the country, with an average margin of victory of nine points.

Could they end up as a 1 seed? It's possible, but unlikely. Tennessee's win over Memphis put them in great position to enter the tournament as a top seed, and things are looking good for the one-loss Tigers as well. It seems likely that either Texas or Kansas well end up on the top line, assuming one of them wins the B12 tournament. UNC, UCLA and Duke all have their eyes on a top seed as well. It seems like Xavier's best shot would be for UNC and Duke to split their regular season finale and tournament matchups, and for UCLA to lose in the Pac-10 tournament. In that case, if Xavier wins out, I think they have a chance at a #1 seed.

Washington St.- #7 seed, Pomeroy #12, 40:1 preseason odds (Sportsbook)
This seems a little harsh, doesn't it? They're third in the Pac-10 at 9-6, but their weak non-conference SOS (RPI #234) really kills them. What's strange is they notched impressive road victories against Baylor and Gonzaga as part of that. Problem is, they also played Eastern Washington, Idaho, Montana, Mississippi Valley St., The Citadel, Idaho St., and North Carolina A&T. Still, they did go 12-0 before Pac-10 play. They play at the northern California teams this weekend- if they can split those two, I think they'll end up higher than this.

Butler- #6 seed, Pomeroy #44, 200:1 preseason odds (Sportsbook)
Let's see- the other current #6 seeds are Clemson, Kansas St., and Gonzaga. If you're a 3 seed in the second round, would your rather play one of those teams, or Butler, whose best win is either Ohio St. at home or @SIU. Right. The Bulldogs lost on national TV on Saturday, but in reality they've been struggling all month. It's true that they were 6-0 in February, but four of those Horizon league wins were by five points or less, and a fifth was in OT. With two home games and then their conference tournament, Butler will likely win out, but that won't make them one of the 24 best teams in the nation.

I'll let the Atlanta poll run until 11ET, but the Baltimore poll is now up as well. Their total of 65 is the lowest number this year, by the way.