Satellite Shoot-Down Odds!

I got an interesting e-mail from a reader named Heath this morning, asking whether there are odds on the result of the planned shoot-down of a broken spy satellite, which has been in the news lately. I went to check a few sites to see if I could find anything, but didn't expect to be successful.

I really need to stop underestimating how fantastic BetUS is.

"US missile to hit and destroy the satellite, +110
US missile to miss the satellite, -140
US missile to hit but not destroy the satellite, +1000
Satellite to hit US White House, +1000000000"

So this does not inspire too much confidence in a successful shoot-down. I will save you the trouble of counting the zeros on the fourth prop- that's 10 million to 1. The minimum you can wager on that one is $5, and the maximum is $10. That has got to be the smallest range I've ever seen.

What are the actual odds of the satellite hitting the White House? Somewhere in the billions or even trillions, I would guess (you would think they would have some emergency measure in place to stop it if it got close, right?). But how stupid would you feel if this somehow did happen, and you passed on 10 million to 1 odds? Yeah, I thought so.

"If the satellite does not land in the ocean where [will it hit?]
Europe, +1200
Asia, +220
Africa, +350
North America, +450
South America, +700
Oceania, +1400
Antarctic, +1000"

+450. I feel much safer now.

They also have odds on which day it will impact (each day is +550), and if it will hit land (+200) or water (-300). As it gets closer, I think we might be able to figure out what day(s) it is most likely to hit, although they'll probably change the odds at that point.

I will be following this story more closely now, that's for sure.

(Since I know BetUS is impossible to navigate, these odds can be found under Sportsbook/Futures & Props/Entertainment Props/Spy Satellite Special.)

Update: Success!