Friday, February 22, 2008

Theoretical Futures Odds

I'm still unclear as to why, but while looking at some college basketball futures odds tonight I decided it would be a really bright idea to make my own. So, below are the odds I have come up with on 48 teams winning the tournament. They are presented in the same format as a normal betting site; Kansas' 5:1 odds mean I think they have roughly a 1 in 6 chance of winning it all.

There is no house advantage on these- they add up to 100.0084%. That's the best I could do.

So there you have it. Based on this, I see three teams that are good bets right now- Louisville (25.5:1, The Greek), Indiana (45.5:1, Greek), and Xavier (80:1, BetUS).

Edit: Well if half the team quits, there probably isn't much value in the Hoosiers.

Also, looking at these odds again, I'm not thrilled with having such a big separation between UNC and Duke. Both those teams are very difficult to figure, but it should probably be closer than that.

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