The distribution here is truly incredible. Nine of the 12 teams have a negative rating. Despite the average being 0, the median is -2.2. This is what happens when you have two powerhouses at the top, a decent Clemson team, and then overwhelming mediocrity. Pomeroy pointed out the other day that this situation has led to an unbelievable number of close games.The expected line for Duke @ UNC is 6.7; the actual opening line is 4. Clearly, this discrepancy is caused by the expectation that Carolina PG Ty Lawson won't play (sprained left ankle).
Despite their current #2 AP ranking, it's taken the general public a surprisingly long time to figure out that the Blue Devils are very good this year. One has to figure this is caused by their lack of a true inside presence- their tallest players, Kyle Singler and Lance Thomas, are only 6'8. (I am excluding Zoubek, who has been hurt throughout conference play, and averaged only 11.7 minutes when healthy.)
The betting stats also tell us that Duke has been underrated to this point. Despite being a favorite in each game, their average Wagerline percentage (the approximate proportion of the public that bet on Duke against the spread) is only 55.5%. In comparison, Carolina's average percentage is 59.0%; that's a pretty significant difference. Given this, it's not surprising that Duke is 6-0-1 against the spread in ACC games, while UNC is only 4-3-1.
Lunardi currently has both Duke and UNC as #1 seeds (I would imagine the loser or Wednesdays' game drops a line), and Clemson as a 10. Those are the only three ACC teams currently in, although both Virginia Tech and Maryland are one of the "last four out".
I'd guess they end up getting four teams in. I mean, when the bottom nine play each other, somebody has to win. After Virginia Tech's loss tonight, the frontrunner for that fourth spot is probably Maryland. They are 4-3 in the ACC, including the huge win @UNC. They are 42nd in the Pomeroy ratings, and are predicted to finish 9-7 in conference. Whether that will be good enough is unclear; they lost five games out of conference, and one of them was at home against American.
1 comments:
The Terps certainly appear to have the inside track and they've really come on strong since that loss to American.
As someone who watches every one of their games, my thought since the (true) start of ACC play has been that they'll need to go 10-6 with a signature win and a win in the conference tourney to have a very good resume.
They did the hard part (winning on the road at UNC). If they finish 10-6 in the ACC, they'll have gone 14-6 since the ugly loss to American to close the season. Considering the committee's penchant for rewarding teams who close well, you'd have to think that'd be enough.
OTOH, while I've privately wondered if they might be the third best team in the ACC at this moment, I'm simultaneously waiting for the other shoe to drop. That's what happens when Greivis Vasquez is your PG.
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