#1 Seed Odds

I tried this a couple weeks ago. Lunardi's top seeds have stayed put, but the percentages have changed substantially.

Memphis, 30-1 (16-0), #3 RPI
If they win their tournament, they're clearly a top seed. If they reach the finals and lose, I can't see them falling. If they lose before the finals, and things break against them (Tennessee and UCLA win their tournaments, in particular), then there's a chance. Maybe. They are in very good shape. Chances of #1 seed: 97%

UCLA, 27-3 (16-2), #6 RPI
We have to take that conference record at face value, even if they needed some serious breaks.
If they win in the quarters against Washington/Cal (90%), it'd be tough to deny them. A loss there, coupled with others taking care of business, could make things interesting. Chances of #1 seed: 94%

North Carolina, 29-2 (14-2), #2 RPI
UNC is 15-0 away from home, which is a difficult factoid to top. They have a great draw, needing only to beat Wake/FSU, and then Va Tech/Miami/NC State to reach the ACC tournament final. The 72% of the time they do that, they should be a 1; their resume is still better than Duke's, plus they were missing Lawson for an extended stretch. I think they should be a lock, but there's a chance they fall. Chances of #1 seed: 87%

Tennessee, 27-3 (14-2), #1 RPI
Winning the SEC tournament (50%) would do it. If they lose, they're asking for trouble- Kansas would likely overtake them if they win the Big 12, and Duke could do the same. Honestly, if they can't beat LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi St. on neutral floors, they really don't deserve it. Chances of #1 seed: 68%

Kansas, 27-3 (13-3), #8 RPI
The first step is to win three games (57%). Their best chance is to sneak ahead of Tennessee (.5*.57=28%). They could surpass one of the other three, but that would require a very strange turn of events. Chances of #1 seed: 36%

Texas, 25-5 (13-3), #5 RPI
Winning the Big 12 (18%) would both give them a boost, and knock out the team directly in front of them. I suppose they could take Tennessee's spot, but I can't see them passing the top three. Chances of #1 seed: 10%

Duke, 26-4 (13-3), #4 RPI
I haven't calculated the ACC numbers yet, but they're around 25% chance to win that tournament. They'd need that to do that, have Kansas and Tennessee lose...and then they'd have to fight it out with Texas. Beating UNC on Saturday night would've been the way to go about this. Chances of #1 seed: 6%

Georgetown, 25-4 (15-3), #7 RPI
The Hoyas are a good example of why you should play real teams in November and December. Playing Memphis was nice, but once they lost that, they assured that they would not have a quality non-con win (Alabama!). That they could go 18-3 against Big East competition and barely even be in the conversation is remarkable. I am including them, but even this might be optimistic. Chances of #1 seed: 2%