Conference Tournament Previews: Big 12

Here are the Pomeroy percentages for each team advancing to each round of the Big 12 tournament, which begins on Thursday.

Kansas will be a 1/2 seed in the big tourney. Texas will be a 2/3 (with an outside chance at a 1). Oklahoma is in, and probably an 8 right now; they could play their way up if they beat Texas in the semis.

Baylor, at 20-9 (9-7) with a RPI of 31, is in as of now. However, a loss to Colorado (3-13 in the B12...not in) would likely put them back on the bubble.

Kansas St. has been the topic of some bubble talk, probably because people want an excuse to talk about Beasley. Their non-conference was pretty bad (10-4, and their best win was Cal at home), but it would have to be really bad to negate 10-6 in this conference. The win against KU likely put them over the top; without it, they are 9-7, without a signature win, and feeling quite uncomfortable on Sunday. It's worth noting that they have a pretty ugly home/road split (17th at home, 52nd on the road), which does not bode well for their chances of making a run. The fact that the format is five-on-five, rather than two-on-two, also works against them.

Texas A&M won the preseason NIT, but did nothing else out of conference, and was only 8-8 in the Big 12. A loss to Iowa St. in the first round would be crushing; a win against Kansas St. to advance to the semis would take them off the bubble. If neither of those things happen, they should get in.

I haven't made too many adjustments to Pomeroy's percentages, beyond knocking Kansas St. down slightly (#13 in the nation? Not quite).

There's not much here- even the best odds, selected from various sites, add up to 134%.

KU at -120 isn't bad. They don't have a great draw (Texas has an easier road to the finals), but have the advantage of being significantly better than everyone else.

Related: Conference Tourney Mini-Previews: Big 12 [Rush the Court]
Related: Super Bullish on KU, Part II [The Money Line Journal]