Conference Tournament Previews: Big East

Here are the Pomeroy percentages for each team advancing to each round of the Big East tournament, which begins on Wednesday:


The two top contenders are clear. Georgetown and Louisville are the top two Big East teams in the standings, RPI, Pomeroy rating, and conference Pomeroy rating.

After that, it's really a mess. Five more teams will make the tournament- Connecticut, West Virginia, Marquette, Notre Dame, and Pitt- but the order of those first four is anyone's guess. By traditional methods, UConn and Notre Dame are thought of as the next tier. The Huskies have gotten the most press, and have the best RPI of the bunch, but that's mostly a product of winning close games. Notre Dame has the impressive 14-4 Big East record, but unfortunately for them this tournament isn't played in South Bend.

It is Marquette, rather than either of those teams, that Pomeroy gives the third best chance. 15.6% is too high; insanely high, really, considering they don't even have a bye. This happens because the Pomeroy ratings have them as the 11th best team in the country, which is quite unrealistic. The Conference Check numbers give us a better gauge of things- they see UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, and Notre Dame is about equal. Due to a few very tough losses (by one to both Georgetown and Pitt, by two against Tennessee back in November), the Mountaineers have not gotten too much attention, but are capable of making a run.

The following table got a little out of hand. The first (numerical) column is what the odds for each team should be, going strictly by Pomeroy's numbers. Next, I have made some adjustments, mostly based on discrepancies between the Pomeroy ratings and the aforementioned Conference Check numbers, to arrive at what I think the true odds of each team winning the tournament should be. Finally, I list the best odds I've found on each team, and where they can be located.


Louisville doesn't have to be nearly as good as I've made them out to be for their +375 odds at BetUS to be profitable. By any available metric, they are right there with Georgetown. The idea that Georgetown had a 33% chance of winning the tournament, while Louisville is only at 21% (which is what the best available odds imply), is preposterous.

Let's look at Louisville's most difficult possible path- having to play Pittsburgh, then Notre Dame, then Georgetown. Pomeroy has them winning these games by 5.4, 4.1, and 0.1 points, respectively. Those all look about right, and the spreads for those potential games would likely be around there. This gives them a 23.8% chance of winning all three. As previously noted, they have to have a 21% chance of winning the tournament for +375 to be a good bet. So even in the worst case scenario, facing the best possible opponents, it's a good wager.

The unadjusted Pomeroy numbers think Marquette is a great look at +1200, but that's working under the assumption that they're the 11th best team in the country, which is false. Not having a bye isn't the end of the world, since they will likely beat Seton Hall pretty easily. But it does mean that winning the tournament would require playing four games in four days, which is not taken into account by the Pomeroy odds. I've tried to factor this in with the "True Odds", although it's obviously an inexact science. The Marquette odds are the second best available, but that's probably about the same as betting on them game-by-game.

Nothing else is very good. As usual, the longshots are atrocious. Even Notre Dame at +550 is ugly; their likely path of Marquette, Louisville, and Georgetown is very tough.

Related: Conference Tourney Mini-Previews: Big East [Rush the Court]