Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Conference Tournament Previews: SEC

Here are the Pomeroy percentages for each team advancing to each round of the SEC tournament, which begins on Thursday.

Tennessee, Mississippi St., Kentucky, and Vanderbilt are in. Parrish has them as 1, 7, 10, and 5 seeds, respectively.

Arkansas vs. Vandy in the second round would be interesting; a battle of atrocious road teams. Strangely the Razorbacks, a bubble team, have a bye, while Vandy does not.

Florida and Ole Miss are also on the bubble. Both would likely have to reach the semis (which would require winning two games) to have a realistic chance. I don't really know how Lunardi has UF included in "Last four out". 8-8 in the weak SEC, and absolutely nothing out of conference- how do they even receive consideration? They also have a RPI of 65, and are 2-8 vs. the RPI top 50. This is not a tournament team.

I have not made any changes to the Pomeroy percentages because a) it is quite late, and b) they look good enough to me.

Once again, the top few teams have good to decent odds, and after that everything is terrible. As much as people have an affinity for favorites when betting on single games, it seems that they much prefer longshots in this situation. That is the only explanation for this pattern.

Anyway, nothing here is really worth it. Tennessee and Mississippi St. are not bad, but not great either.

1 comments:

  1. Wait, wait, doesn't Vandy's experience and "solid" guard play make their true odds better than 19-1??

    What about their Top 20 ranking and close loss in the Sweet 16 last year to G'Town with a completely different team?

    None of this matter?? Help, I am confused.

    ReplyDelete