Butler, BYU, Clemson, Connecticut, Davidson, Drake, Duke, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas, Kansas St., Kent St., Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, Miami (FL), Michigan St., Mississippi St., Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Saint Mary's, Stanford, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNC, UNLV, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington St., West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier.
12:51 In addition, 11 teams not on this list have already won their conference tournaments: Austin Peay, Belmont, Cornell, George Mason, Mount St. Mary's, Oral Roberts, Portland St., San Diego, Siena, Western Kentucky, Winthrop.
In addition, there are seven conference tournaments for one-bid leagues that have not been completed. These are: America East, Big West, MEAC, Patriot, Southland, SWAC, WAC.
12:54 38 + 11 + 7 = 56. Which means nine spots are unaccounted for. For now, those are the nine bubble spots. It is important to note that this number will decrease when a team that is not "in" wins one of the following conference tournaments: A-10, ACC, B10, B12, BE, C-USA, MAC, MWC, P10, SEC. So, technically, there could end up being negative one bubble spots (9-10), but the odds of that happening are so ridiculously slim that I do not care.
12:59 I have also pretty arbitrarily, but not without my reasons, decided that the following teams are out: Dayton, Florida, Mississippi, New Mexico, Syracuse. All of these teams have been eliminated from their conference tournaments, so they cannot improve their current resumes, which are not good enough.
1:02 This leaves us with 15 bubble teams. For 9 spots. I'm pretty sure. Six of these teams are still alive in their conference tournaments, and are playing today. Those are:
Arkansas (3:15pm, vs. Vandy)
Ohio St. (2:30pm, vs. Michigan St.)
St. Joseph's (6:30pm, vs. Xavier)
Temple (9:00pm, vs. Charlotte)
UNLV (midnight, vs. Utah)
Virginia Tech (2:30pm, vs. Miami FL)
1:10 So there are 9 teams that are on the bubble, and are already out of their conference tournament. Those are: Arizona, Arizona St., Baylor, Illinois St., Oregon, South Alabama, UMass, VCU, and Villanova. This exercise is kind of pointless unless you rank these teams. I need to do that.
1:14 The early games are kind of terrible, but there are, in fact, early games. Current scores:
Wisconsin 33, Michigan 23, 15:05 left in the game
UNC 35, FSU 28, 17:50 left
Texas 30, Oklahoma St. 23, 4:04 left in the first half
Tennessee 6, South Carolina 0, 17:25 left in the first
If any of these games get interesting, I will start paying attention. I am not holding my breath.
1:18 Sheehan brought up a good point in his bubble post today:
I was discussing this with someone the other day. I am completely convinced that teams cut deals in this kind of situation. Not all the time, but it's definitely happened. St. Joe's-Xavier is another good example of this today. One team has so much more to gain than the other.Ohio State. It’s pretty simple: beat Michigan State, and get into the tournament. It should be interesting to see how this one is called. Fair or no, it’s clear that the Big 11 has a lot invested in the outcome of that game.
Oklahoma St. is up 33-32 on Texas at the half.
1:34 Oregon is out. I previously had them as still on the bubble.
1:45 I am also moving Arizona St. to "Out". Their RPI is is 81, which is not good enough.
1:48 Okay, we now have 13 teams for those final 9 spots. Six are playing today. Here is my ranking of the other 7: Illinois St., South Alabama, Baylor, Arizona, Villanova, UMass, VCU.
1:50 Wisconsin is up 16 on Michigan with 1:32 remaining. Texas has outscored Ok. St. 9-0 to open the second half, they are now up 8. UNC is leading Florida St. by 12 with 5:30 left. Tennessee is up only 4 on South Carolina with 3:45 left in the first half.
1:58 Florida St. probably should have been included in the list of bubble teams. They are about to lose to UNC, so it doesn't really matter.
2:00 Did you guys know that Tyler Hansbrough plays really hard every possession? This is news to me, Digger Phelps.
2:02 Hubert Davis says that Tyler Hansbrough is the only player in the country that plays hard on both ends of the floor, every possession. There is simply no way this is true.
Kevin Love > Tyler Hansbrough
2:05 It's Friday, isn't it. I'm supposed to do links. Damn it.
2:07 Can someone explain to me why "Last 12 games" is a criteria? These games are already fresher in people's minds, and thus we're probably biased towards them. Is it really necessary to make them even more important?
2:11 Wisconsin and UNC won. Texas is up 13 with 8 minutes left. Tennessee is only up 1 at halftime against South Carolina.
2:14 Good article by Gasaway about efficiency margin and seeding.
2:20 Oklahoma St. has cut Texas' lead to 3 with 3:25 remaining.
2:31 Baseball Prospectus was on the Tonight Show. That picture is hilarious.
2:34 Texas won by 7. Tennessee is now down 3, 14:09 left. The Miami-Va Tech game has gotten underway.
2:41 I wrote a piece for Luke Winn's Tourney Blog on SI.com today, which can be found here.
2:53 Bubble updates: Ohio St. is down 22-19 to MSU, with 5:50 to go in the first half. Virginia Tech leads Miami by 5, 9 minutes before halftime.
3:00 Miami has tied it up at 21. I hope they win. Va Tech has not beaten anybody.
3:11 Tennessee is up 1 against South Carolina with 36.3 to play, USC has the ball.
3:12 Downey scores for South Carolina with 20 seconds left to take a 1 point lead.
Digger Phelps is not paying any attention. He thinks Tennessee is winning. They are not. South Carolina is winning. This is so absurd. Nobody else has realized this.
3:14 Lofton hits a triple with 12 seconds left, putting the Vols up 2. Downey misses a 3, and the ball goes off Tenny. Tyler Smith got away with a push, they are saying. 1.1 left, SC inbounding from underneath their basket.
3:16 South Carolina doesn't even get a shot off. Tennessee survives.
3:20 Ohio St. and the Spartans are tied at the half. Va Tech is up 4 on Miami.
3:35 Can people please vote in the A's poll? Thanks.
3:41 John Calipari, when asked who is the best team in the country:
"'You have North Carolina because they've got the inside-outside game. Kansas, who I think is off the chain. Kansas is ridiculous.'"It's a lot longer than than that, but I think I've isolated the important part.
3:46 Koufos has picked up three fouls in about 45 seconds for the Buckeyes. The first two were extremely questionable.
And now a tech on Hunter. This is a mess.
3:50 Miami up 2 on Va Tech with 11 minutes remaining. Oklahoma up 5 on Colorado at the half, an a game that could not be less interesting.
Vanderbilt-Arkansas is underway.
3:58 Neitzel now has 21, and Michigan St. has taken a 7 point lead.
4:02 Va Tech is now up 7. They're going to end up being a 11/12 seed, and lose by 30 in the first round.
OSU briefly got it to within 2, but the lead is now back up to 7.
4:11 Virginia Tech is up 12 with 2:02 remaining. They will play North Carolina tomorrow. If they do not embarrass themselves (which they might), they've got a chance to get in.
4:13 Hunter hits a FT to get Ohio St. within 5.
And a foul before Michigan St. can even inbound it. Of course.
4:16 Ohio St. cuts the lead to 2, and the Spartans call a timeout. 2:08 to go.
4:17 They let Neitzel stroll into the lane for a layup, but then hit two FTs on the other end. The lead is still 3, 1:35 left.
4:18 Neitzel nails his sixth 3 of the game, that's a dagger. Spartans up 6 with a minute left.
4:26 Va Tech wins, and Ohio St. loses. Both continue to be on the bubble.
4:31 Arkansas leads Vanderbilt at the half, 40-36.
4:32 Colorado is keeping it close with Oklahoma, only down 1 with 7:40 left. This really makes no sense at all.
4:49 The only basketball on TV for me right now is Colgate-American. I think that means it's time for a break. Back in a couple hours.
Does Ohio State have to win today get in to the Dance? If they lose what are their prospects of making it?
ReplyDeleteIf they win today, they are in.
ReplyDeleteIf they lose...I don't think so. But I really don't know at this point.
Dunno if it matters but you only have 36 teams on that list.
ReplyDeleteAmong the missing: Kansas.
Indiana was the other missing one. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIt actually doesn't change anything else, because I had those teams on my "In" list, but I missed them when I was copying it in from Excel. But it does *matter*.
Do you think teams that are playing now, tomorrow or Sunday have better chances to get in than those who finished 3-5 days ago? I liken this situation to when movies, actors, etc. are nominated for Oscars- we always look at the most recent releases. I hope this doesn't kill the South Alabama, VCU chances.
ReplyDeleteSouth Alabama's RPI is 34. It will still be 34 (or something around there) two days from now. They are also 3-2 against the RPI Top 50. I think they are pretty safe.
ReplyDeleteVCU's RPI is only 55, and they are 0-2 against the RPI T50. They have losses to Hampton, JMU, and William & Mary. They are relying on wins vs. Houston, Maryland, and Akron. Not looking good.
What do you think about teams like Dayton, Illinois State or Baylor?
ReplyDeleteOut, in, very borderline. Baylor was in before yesterday, but that was a terrible loss.
ReplyDeletein or out?
ReplyDeleteResume of Team "X"
RPI 29
SOS 40
Conference record: 8-8
VS. RPI top 50: 3-3
VS. RPI 50-100: 6-2
(based on my previous comments, it should be pretty apparent who Team X is)
That doesn't really work for A-10 teams. If they'd gone 8-8 in the B12, it'd be a lot different. Their schedule is nowhere near the 40th most difficult in the country, the RPI is so dumb.
ReplyDeleteLouisville was a completely different team when they played them, without Padgett. You really can't give them extra points for playing without Wright, because he hasn't played in 2 months.
That RPI sure is pretty, though.
I saw the Baylor game...they should have won. They could not reach their inner Valpo.
ReplyDeleteHow do you rate this year's Bubble? It seems there are a lot of iffy teams. The NFL likes parity; is it good for the Madness?
I don't really know how you rate the bubble. I think Arkansas and Arizona are decent teams, and could beat somebody if they do get in. But I don't think they should clearly get in, because they haven't done much this season.
ReplyDeleteI know. I'm just trying to justify that a team that has played so horribly over the past two months still deserves a look based on earlier accomplishments. It's a minor contrary point to your open-ended question about why "Last 12 games is criteria". Everybody knows Dayton's been bad of late... no need to rub it in.
ReplyDeleteNice summation piece on Winn's blog.
Who do y'all root for when it comes to the Bubble: Mid Major, decent BCS or the best possible (whatever that means to the powers that be)?
ReplyDeleteUNC and Kansas will not win it all. Tennessee, Memphis or UCLA maybee??
ReplyDeleteI think KU, UNC, UCLA, and Memphis are pretty clearly the top four contenders at this point.
ReplyDeleteI know I'm biased, but syracuse has a better resume than half the teams that you claim to be on the bubble, illinois st. USA, VCU, oregon, and maybe ASU and Baylor
ReplyDeleteThese are the teams I think will get in, rather than those that *should* get in.
ReplyDeleteIf I was doing teams that should be in, I would never look at RPI. Which is going to save Ill St. and USA, and kill ASU.