Finding Value In Futures Odds

Last week, in the MVC and CAA conference tournament previews, I suggested that both league champs, Drake and VCU, had favorable odds. Drake ended up winning their tournament, while VCU lost to William & Mary in the semis. As it turns out, VCU would have been a much smarter wager. Let me explain.

The Greek had VCU at +175. In their first game against Towson, they were favored by 14; their money line was about -1200. Today, against W&M, they were 12 points favorites, with a money line of -800. If they had won, they would've faced George Mason; that game probably would've been around a pick'em (-110). So, if they had won out, and you had bet $10 on their money line in the first game, and carried that money over throughout the tournament, you would've ended up with $23.67; their implied odds for winning the tournament, from the lines of the actual games, were +137*. That makes +175 quite the bargain.

The opposite was true for Drake. Since they reached (and won) the final, we conveniently have the actual lines to all their games, which were 10, 3, and 2.5, respectively (Drake being favored in each). The corresponding money lines for these spreads are -500, -155, and -145, respectively. If you'd started with $10 and continued putting it all down on them for each game, you would've netted a profit of $23.36*. In contrast, putting that $10 down on their odds at the beginning of the tournament (+175) would have only given you a profit of $17.50.

The outcomes for these two teams are irrelevant. By betting on Drake to win, you are doing yourself a disservice. On the other hand, VCU's line of +175 significantly better than the market value determined by the individual game lines. When considering futures like this, one has to not only figure out if the odds are profitable by themselves, but also assess whether that is the best option.

*Obviously, this depends on who each team ends up playing in each round. Drake faced the #8, #4, and #2 seeds, which is the most difficult possible path. VCU went up against the #9 and #5 seeds, and would've faced #3 George Mason in finals. This has a marginal effect, but nothing extreme. It's interesting to note that George Mason was favored by 7 over the #2 seed, NC Wilmington (which, as previously noted, was vastly overrated). So Creighton would have been favored substantially in the championship game over NC Wilmington, likely making their implied odds even lower than +137 (lower in this case meaning closer to EV, +100).