The maximum wager on these is $10, so only the longshots are really worth looking at.I really like McLaren at 40:1 here. People have high expectations for this team which are, well, misplaced. The Angels' injury issues have only given them more hope. If they get off to a bad start, McLaren isn't under contract after this year- he could be the first to go.
Some of these make very little sense. How is Wedge 16:1? His odds should be switched with McLaren's.
LaRussa is 40:1 because he's *Tony LaRussa* but, as the prop clearly states, he doesn't necessarily have to get fired. I could see him potentially stepping down at some point. It's not likely, but they're a better chance of that happening than Trey Hillman "leaving his post".
Bruce Bochy's contract runs through 2009, but I don't see how the manager of a team that bad has such high odds. Sabean has to blame somebody, doesn't he?
Black at 35:1 also seems decent, but nothing else really jumps out at me. Maybe some of you have further insight on the manager of your favorite team.
Update: Further insight on the McLaren odds from Sheehan's chat:
"Those are great odds. He doesn't have a track record or a name, expectations are high and unlikely to be met, and the GM is playing for his own job.Good bet. Er, if gambling were legal."
6 comments:
Ozzie at 5:1? He was just signed to an extension a few months ago, I think. I suppose if he "left" it would be alongside Kenny Williams. They seem to have tied their fortunes together.
Scioscia has the 8th most likely manager to be fired? Are they serious?
He's been there for 9 years now, and the Angels have been pretty good lately.
Wow, how hilariously bad is that Melvin line at 6:1? Ignoring the 'square logic' of "He was the NL Manager of the Year!", I can't think of a single reason for Melvin to be below 30:1. EVERYONE realizes that the D'Backs far exceeded expectations last season, and I assume his number is based on them coming back to Earth, but the problem is the D'Backs have one of, if not 'the', smartest front offices in the game. Byrnes, Woodfork, Hinch et. al know what they're doing, and Moorad for the most part keeps out of the way, they certainly realize how well AZ played last season and that it most likely isn't repeatable, even with the addition of Haren. Plus, look at all the built in 'excuses' they can use: 1) Injury - R.Johnson, 2) Young Player developing - Upton/Drew/Reynolds/C.Young, 3) Lack of established closer. 6:1 seems like dead money for me.
I agree the 'key' is the "first to leave", and LaRussa immediately came to my mind as well. Best friend Jocketty got fired last season, Pujols possibly out by July, the entire team is spiraling downward to the point that I'm almost absolutely certain they finish last in the Central. Perfect time for LaRussa to bow out, only problem is 'when'.
Yost & Gibbons will definitely be fired after the season, barring a playoff run by their squads. Possible for Mil, although less likely with their recent pitching troubles, not sure how much I trust Gagne the Fat either. Very very unlikely for the slop team playing North of the Border.
McLaren at 40:1 is hilarious, especially considering I think Oak will contend for the ALW. Expectations are extremely high in the PacNW, and Bavasi seems to have no idea that his squad is terrible. I really don't know how anyone else gets shipped during the season, unless there's a massive collapse for NYM or Philly.
Jim Leyland is tied for least likely to leave his post. He and Joe Torre are both 50-to-1. Torre I get, but … Leyland is 63 years old, looks like he’s 81 and smokes a pack and a half of cigarettes before the top of the third inning. No one would be surprised if he leaves his post for the afterlife sometime in late April.
http://oldmilwaukees.com/2008/03/28/the-yost-leaving-his-post-post/
Ozzie may have already left his post. According to SA Poster rebel1608:
"My brother works for a minor league team that's hosting the Rangers and White Sox tonight in an exhibition and he just texted me to tell me that AJ Pierzynski grabbed the air gun that they use to shoot t-shirts into the crowd and shot Ozzie Guillen in the balls with it."
judge this yourselves people, but LaRussa and new GM Mozelaik are not seeing eye to eye, especially with regards to one Anthony Reyes. it would seem that LaRussa (and Duncan) want Reyes in the minors and Moz wants him in the MLB 'pen. (and guess who's in the show? that's right Mr reyes. LR will not be pleased, but maybe he'll suck it up, who knows)
my personal judgement is that LR will absolutely not get fired or quit (assuming the absence of something absurd: say "LaRussa dying and killing twin 3 year olds in a drunk driving accident" three times fast). i believe it's a safe bet he doesn't return next yr. so betting on larussa is also betting that no other manager goes midseason (and like mcLaren, LR is only under contract for this season, i'm like 75.2% on that one)
and as per the reyes thing - WTF, he is certainly better then brad fucking thompson, who was below mediocre in the pen last year, doesn't strike people out, will not last more then 5 inn EVER... - sorry about that, it's upsetting.
Post a Comment