The Pac-10 is my favorite conference. This is extremely odd, because it is so far away, and I don't get FSN at school, so I can't watch too many Pac-10 games. But I think part of it is that I really like their travel schedule. If UCLA plays Arizona on Thursday, I know they will be playing ASU that weekend. It's easy to keep track of.
The best part of this is that it's a complete round robin. Every team plays every other team, home and away. They are the only "power conference" (apparently people get mad when I say "BCS") that does this. This is partially because they are the smallest of these conferences. But they also play 18 games; the Big East and the Big "Ten" are the only other conferences to play that many.
Because of this symmetry, you can take the regular season record of a Pac-10 team at face value. If UCLA goes 15-3, and Stanford is 13-5, you can be confident that UCLA's mark is more impressive.
This is not true in the other five conferences, with their unbalanced schedules. I don't think this gets enough attention; people compare teams' records within the conference, and don't look at the context of these records. So I thought I'd look at the teams who have played the easiest and most difficult schedules, relative to the other teams in their conference.
Please note that this is not comparing schedules across conferences. If I say Tennessee has played a difficult schedule, that means their schedule has been challenging relative to the other teams in their conference. They play in the SEC; obviously their schedule isn't that difficult.
Virginia Tech
The Hokies are on the bubble, mostly on the strength of their 9-6 ACC record. Do not be fooled by this. With 12 teams and an a 16 game schedule, they have played two games against five of the other 11 ACC teams. As we all know, there are only three good teams in the ACC- Duke, UNC and Clemson. Virginia Tech has been lucky enough to play each of those teams only once. If the Hokies had doubled up against those teams instead of BC, Wake, and UVa, I doubt we'd be talking about them sneaking into the tourney.
Wisconsin
The Badgers' 14-2 Big Ten record is certainly impressive, and they will likely win their final two games against Penn St. and Northwestern. They have rolled through the conference, except for those pesky Boilermakers, who have beaten them twice. The B10 has four pretty terrible teams at the bottom, in Northwestern, Iowa, Penn St., Michigan. Wisky has had the good fortune to play each of these teams twice, while only playing Michigan St. and Ohio St. once each. Just something to keep in mind when you're filling out your bracket and considering all those conference wins.
West Virginia
Because of the size of the Big East, you only double up against three teams. The Mountaineers have only had to play Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Connecticut, and Notre Dame, the five best teams in the conference, once each. They have already played St. John's, and play them for a second time on Saturday. So that 11-7 BE mark (if they beat the Red Storm) should come with an asterisk.
NC State
This team is terrible, and obviously their schedule is not hindering their tournament chances, which are non-existent. But they sure have had it rough. As mentioned previously, in the ACC you double up against five teams. NC State is the anti-Va Tech; they've played Clemson, Duke and UNC twice each. This doesn't really effect anything, but it really sucks for them.
Illinois
Another bad team with an absolutely horrific schedule. In the B10 you play every team twice, except for two. Those two for Illinois? Northwestern and Iowa. That is rough. Obviously they don't, but if Illinois and Wisconsin had the same record, it's clear which one would be more impressive.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
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2 comments:
Interesting. Your analysis covers two sides to this: Good record w/ easy schedule and bad record w/ hard schedule. It got me thinking about the other possible groups, especially good record w/ hard schedule. Sure there's bad record w/ easy schedule, but it's already too easy to pick on them.
From a quick search here's what I found:
Duke has UNC, MD, Miami, NC St, and UVA twice. If they can sweep UNC, that 14-2 ACC record will not be cheap.
As if the Louisville lovefest needed any more fuel, they stand out in the Big East. Two games each against Marquette and Georgetown, and the possibility for a 15-3 conference mark. Small sample size, I know, but it's easily the most impressive of the Big East Top-5.
Not much to speak of in the A-10, but of interest is St. Joe's, which has hung tough despite doubling up against Xavier, UMass, and Temple. If they beat the X-Men tonight, might they squeak in and be a frisky 12?
And the Big 10 doesn't have a stand-out at all. Each of the top four has each had conference schedule breaks. Maybe that's why there's four bunched at the top, and then a whole lot of crap.
The Louisville lovefest will take all the fuel it can get.
I actually used the spreadsheet I have with all the lines and everything to find these teams. NC State and Illinois were HUGE outliers; they were both around -1, and the third hardest schedule was ~-0.5. When I get home tonight I'll check out those teams you mentioned. I doubt Duke is too far from the average, since they only played Clemson once, and NC St. and UVA are not exactly worldbeaters.
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