Now, for the contest. First off, we will be using the current BetCRIS totals. So if you planned on taking Tampa Over 72, too bad- it's 76 now.
Rules
Here's how it will work. There are ten groups. The first group consists of the three teams for which the consensus was strongest- San Francisco, Colorado, Seattle. The second group is the fourth through sixth most "obvious"- the Mets, Milwaukee, and Tampa. And so on. This was done to prevent everyone from having the same picks, because that would be boring.
Pick one team from each group. Then, obviously, indicate whether you think they'll be over or under the given number. This is probably clear, but you don't have to pick the side the consensus was on- if you want to take the Seattle over, go right ahead. Please.
Here are the groups.
San Francisco, 71
Colorado, 83
Seattle, 83.5
New York (N), 93
Milwaukee, 84
Tampa Bay, 76
Atlanta, 86
St. Louis, 76
Texas, 75
Oakland, 73.5
Detroit, 93
Boston, 94
San Diego, 84.5
Baltimore, 65.5
New York (A), 94
Philadelphia, 88
Minnesota, 74
Toronto, 85.5
LA Angels, 91
Kansas City, 73.5
LA Dodgers, 87
Florida, 68.5
Arizona, 88
Cincinnati, 78
Chicago (A), 78
Chicago (N), 87.5
Cleveland, 90
Washington, 71.5
Houston, 75
Pittsburgh, 70
Edit: Almost forgot, this is important.
Tiebreaker: What will be the winning percentage of the Cleveland Indians?
The Red Sox and A's play two games in Japan on the 25th and 26th- I don't care. These games obviously count, but the contest will be open until March 30. If you want to wait to see the results of those two games, go for it- although I've put those two teams in the same group, so that trick only works once.
Hopefully the structure is clear at this point, but just to make sure, he's an example entry: Colorado O, Milwaukee U, Atlanta O, Oakland O, Baltimore O, Philadelphia U, Kansas City O, Florida U, Cleveland O, Houston U, Tiebreaker: .642 (104-58).
How to Enter
Once you have figured out what teams you are taking, and your tiebreaker, send your entry to vegaswatch@gmail.com. Give me some kind of name, or initals, so I can identify you if I post standings or something. There will likely be a monthly post updating how everyone is projected to do.
Prizes
Well, "prize", singular. The winner of the pool will receive 10% of this blog's ad revenues from its inception through the last day of the regular season. The prize pool currently sits at $79.81- hopefully for all parties, this number will grow substantially over the next 6.5 months. Also, I believe MoneyLine said he would contribute $25. So we're over $100 already. Big money.
If you have any questions, please ask them in the comments.
(I understand most of you are currently preoccupied with filling out your brackets, so I will re-post this again next week.)
Update: From MoneyLine:
" My $25 donation still stands. I'm going to make it more interesting though.
- I'll make it a cool $50 if I turn a .5x profit or higher on NCAA tourney sides.
- I'll up it to $100 if KU wins it all.
- When I fill out a perfect bracket, I'll up it to $1,000.
You can follow his progress over at The Money Line Journal, which I have now linked to five times in about six inches.
Tournament Wagering Tips:
South Region Round 1 Leans (The Money Line Journal)
West Region Round 1 Leans (The Money Line Journal)
Bracket Math, Part Two (Luke Winn's 2008 Tourney Blog)



My $25 donation still stands. I'm going to make it more interesting though.
ReplyDeleteI'll make it a cool $50 if I turn a .5x profit or higher on NCAA tourney sides.
I'll up it to $100 if KU wins it all.
When I fill out a perfect bracket, I'll up it to $1,000.
You see if I win, EVERYONE wins. It doesn't usually work this way.
I notice that you don't say, "The Tiebreaker will go to the one who guesses closest to the Indians' Winning Percentage."
ReplyDeleteSo, seeing as it's you, I will say that the Indians' winning percentage will be 1.000.
Also, you've probably already noticed this, but the Facebook brackets allow you to hover your mouse over a team, and see what % of people picked them to advance to the next round at that stage.
ReplyDeleteFacebook users provide an awfully big sample size. Might be an interesting way of assessing odds, and perceived strength of teams.
Or it may simply get skewed by big schools having lots of students picking their team to go farther than they reasonably will.