My Bracket

(click to enlarge)

This is the bracket I will be entering into Sportsbook's "$11,000,000 Bracket Challenge". Needless to say, I am confident.

The main thing here that has not been discussed is the Final Four. Kansas has a much easier draw than Louisville, and they are better than them to begin with, so they're in the final game. The exact same thinking caused me to pick Memphis over Duke. Considering their draw, their talent, and the relatively low number of people that are picking them, I would've been hard pressed to pick a team other than the Jayhawks to win it all.

Using the numbers from this week's posts, there is a 1.37% chance of my Final Four happening. That is so depressing- I really wish I hadn't calculated it. There should be a way to parlay regional winners, so you could bet on nailing the F4. I don't believe such a thing exists.

There is a 13.3% chance that zero of these four teams reach San Antonio. So it is ten times more likely that I go 0/4 than 4/4. I'm gonna stop doing these calculations now before I just give up on the whole thing.

I wish Wisconsin was in the South or West. I'm pretty sure I would have picked them to win either of those regions. They are much better than the general public gives them credit for- it's not pretty, but who cares? Unfortunately, they are in Kansas' region. In fact, I would likely have Clemson going pretty far if they didn't have a potential matchup with the Jayhawks in the Sweet 16.

I have no clue what is going to happen in the bottom half of the South region. I'm not thrilled with having Texas in the Elite 8, but I couldn't talk myself into Stanford. This mostly came down to me being much more confident in Texas beating Miami/St. Mary's than Stanford beating Marquette/Kentucky.

By seed, Western Kentucky over Drake is my biggest upset. But the line on that game is only 4, so it's really nothing crazy.

I have all four 1 seeds reaching the Elite 8- this is stupid, and won't happen. The 4/5 I like the most is Clemson- that's obviously out. After them it's probably Washington St., but I just can't bring myself to pick them to beat UNC in Charlotte, especially considering they could easily lose to a barrage of Luke Harangody 3s in the second round.

Good luck with your brackets. The best four-day stretch in sports begins in about 12 hours.